Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline
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Peak Oil Advantage – 1NC Frontline6. No impact - the inevitable decline in oil production will increase its price, spurring a gradual transition to renewables that will avoid war and doom. Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm First, a few facts. Oil is indeed a finite, limited resource that will eventually be depleted and decline. But will we ever run out of oil? The answer is NO! As oil becomes scarcer, its price will rise until only the very wealthy can afford it, so there will always be some available at some price, although this fact may not be reassuring to most of us. Right now--and historically--oil is plentiful, and the price is low (current equilibrium oil price is $23 a barrel). After world oil production reaches its peak and begins its inevitable decline, it will necessarily become scarcer and thus more expensive. The greater expense--not the unavailability--of oil in the long term is what gives the doomsayers cause for alarm, since an irrevocable price increase in this most valuable of commodities will certainly negatively affect all national economies based on oil as an energy resource, and that includes the United States. The doomsayers calculate that the peak and subsequent decline are upon us now, but the evidence for that is extremely thin as we shall see later. In fact, the peak will probably be reached several decades from now, closer to the middle of this century. Furthermore, when the peak and decline are reached--as must inevitably occur sometime in the future--why shouldn't the decline be gradual and steady, thus allowing economies to slowly but steadily transition to alternative and renewable energy resources? The doomsayers predict, again with no or little evidence, that when the decline begins the price surge will be enormous and chaotic, thus leading to political upsets and territorial wars. The alarmists apparently believe that there are no buffering effects in national and global economies, such as, for example, when the supply of oil decreases with a constant demand, the price will rise proportionately, causing demand to decrease until supply and demand are once again in equilibrium. Of course, some will experience a decrease in their standard of living, but major depression and war? I don't think so. 1NC Frontline7. Oil is renewable - Hydrocarbon content in oil fields suggests that petroleum is an abiotic resource, allowing oil fields to produce “forever.” Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004,, p. 113 
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