Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
More Oil – OPEC countries
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- Bell Curve/Hubbert Wrong The bell curve model is fatally flawed – oil peak theorists’ own research proves.
- Hubbert’s curve doesn’t account for tech advances or changes in demand – it couldn’t predict the rise in natural gas and world oil production.
More Oil – OPEC countriesOPEC countries dependent on their oil economies will invite increased oil production. Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. 58 
Bell Curve/Hubbert Wrong The bell curve model is fatally flawed – oil peak theorists’ own research proves. Michael C. Lynch, Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc., Center for International Studies at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MINERALS & ENERGY VOL 18 NO 1, “The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources,” 2003, http://www.precaution.org/lib/05/lynch_debunking_hubbert.20030615.pdf. The recent authors, notably Campbell and Laherrere have apparently rediscovered the Hubbert curve, but without understanding it, at least initially. Campbell and Laherrere initially argue that production should follow a bell curve, at least in an unconstrained province. But this is demonstratively not the case in practice: most nations' production does not follow a Hubbert curve. In fact, Campbell (2003) shows production curves (historical and forecast) for 51 non-OPEC countries, and only 8 of them could be said to resemble a Hubbert curve even approximately. The authors initially responded to this weakness by arguing that the Hubbert curve could have multiple peaks, which of course means it would not follow a bell curve at all, and destroys the explanatory value of the bell curve. As the alleged value of the Hubbert curve lies partly in demonstrating the production decline post-peak, not knowing whether any given peak is the ®nal one renders this useless, nor would the peak imply that midpoint production had been reached (indicating URR). Recognizing this, the theory has been modi®ed again, to ªThe important message from Hubbert's work, which is often forgotten by economists, is that oil has to be found before it can be produced.º (Laherrere 2001b, p. 4) In other words, the Hubbert curve, originally held as scientific and inviolable, is of no particular value. Yet the authors have not only mistakenly believed in its properties, they have not been forthcoming about their own errors. Hubbert’s curve doesn’t account for tech advances or changes in demand – it couldn’t predict the rise in natural gas and world oil production. Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm M. King Hubbert's analysis and curve has been consistently misinterpreted and misapplied by the doomsayers (for their interpretation, go to http://www.energycrisis.com/hubbert/). Hubbert's curve is not a normal curve, but a plot of oil production plotted over time; therefore, predictions from statistical tests applied to this curve are invalid. While Hubbert correctly predicted the peak and decline of U.S. oil production with his curve, his attempts to do the same with both U.S. natural gas production and world oil production failed. Fisher points out that a major flaw in using a symmetrical life cycle curve to predict future production is its static nature: it assumes a known amount of an ultimate resource, and does not allow for resource expansion due to technological advances or economic demand pressures. Ahlbrandt advocates a production-plateau model of oil resources rather than the traditional Hubbert curve, because the former better represents the real-world conditions as we understand them now. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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