Peak Oil Coming-2011
The peak will come in 2011-China and developing countries will offset dampened demand in the U.S.
Dave Cohen, Energy Bulletin Staff Writer, 7-17-08
(http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45940) [Bozman]
I am now in a position to add up the production numbers arrived at above, but first I need to establish a baseline. I will use the EIA's data (here and here) for May, 2008. The EIA's 4-month average for 2008 is 74.325 million b/d. Saudi production in May was 9.4 million b/d, up 300,000 b/d from April. I will add those barrels to the 4-month average to obtain a baseline of 74.625 million b/d. We can now add our additions to the baseline. The non-OPEC increment is 0.5 million b/d, the Saudi increment is 1 million b/d, and the rest of OPEC increment is 0.72 million b/d. Together, these yield 2.22 million b/d. Adding this to the baseline, we get 76.845 million b/d. If you look back at both of the IEA charts, you will see that OPEC capacity additions fall off considerably in 2011, while non-OPEC additions drop after 2009. My view is that after 2011, we will never surpass production levels achieved that year. The oil price is rising quickly. The higher prices preceding the peak are now dampening demand in the United States and elsewhere in the OECD. However, subsidized consumption growth outside the OECD (China, etc.) is still soaking up demand reductions elsewhere. I can not predict future oil prices with any certainty, and I can not predict future oil demand with any certainty, although I have discussed these subjects at length in other columns. Obviously, I can not predict the exact shape of the world oil production curve in the next 5 years. What I can do, however, is establish a ceiling for world oil production should demand remain strong going forward. That ceiling, now and forever, is likely to occur in 2011 somewhere between 76 and 77 million b/d.
Consensus of oil industry experts and a plethora of statistics all point to a peak in 2011.
Leslie Haines, Staff Writer for Oil and Gas Investor, December 1st, ‘7
(Investing in a Peak-Oil World, Oil and Gas Investor This Week, p. Proquest) [Bozman]
But most of the 500 people attending the recent World Oil Conference in Houston think peak oil production could occur as soon as 2011. Sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil's U.S. chapter (ASPO-USA), the University of Houston and the city of Houston, the gathering was to educate the public about the social, economic and technological ramifications of peak oil and to discuss possible responses from consumers, businesses and government at all levels. "Global oil output has already peaked at about 85 million barrels a day and high oil prices are a sign of things to come," said commodity investor and former E&P executive T. Boone Pickens, head of BP Capital in Dallas. "You never run out of oil, but you do run out of incremental flows because new production is fully offset by depletion elsewhere," said Chris Skrebowski, a trustee of the London-based Energy Institute and editor of The Petroleum Review. He said he is no pessimist by nature and is not anti-oil, having worked in the oil industry for years before becoming a journalist. "I believe in observing what companies do, not what they say...and let the numbers speak for themselves," he said. Skrebowski's numbers were not positive. In the past 12 quarters, the five supermajors have seen their oil output decline, and production has flat-lined during that period for the world's 24 largest publicly traded oil companies, even as they have hiked E&P spending. He estimates the peak will arrive in 2011 or 2012 at about 93 million barrels per day, a higher number than Pickens forecasts. Skrebowski has studied some 175 announced mega-projects under way around the world, with estimated dates of first production and other details. He believes net global depletion is now running about 4% annually, or that production is dropping by 3.3 million barrels a day each year, despite the new mega-projects. He cited data from BP Plc that indicates 25 major producing countries and 40 minor ones are already seeing output decline, and 50 of the 120 largest fields in the world are in decline.
Peak Oil Coming-2015
Oil industry concedes peak comes by 2015.
Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute, ‘4
(Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World, p. 24) [Bozman]
In an article titled ?A Revolutionary Transformation? in The Lamp, a quarterly published for ExxonMobil shareholders published in September 2003, exploration division president Jon Thompson reflected on the dramatic changes in exploration technology over the past 40 years and the challenges that lie ahead in finding and producing future supplies of oil and gas. ?[W] e estimate that world oil and gas production from existing fields is declining at an average rate of about four to six percent a year,? he wrote. To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That?s equal to about 80 percent of today?s production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to 8 out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending. 2 Thompson?s statements were regarded by many industry insiders as an oblique admission that it will soon be virtually impossible for production levels to keep up with demand.
Peak Oil Coming-2016
No substantial new discoveries-peak will come in 2016.
Richard C. Duncan, Director of the Instittute on Energy & Man, PhD in Engineering from U Washington, May 26th, ‘3
(Oil & Gas Journal, Volume 101, Issue 21, p. 18, p. Proquest) [Bozman]
While there are lots of new fields waiting to be found, especially offshore, there is scant chance of finding more than a few dozen substantial accumulations. In fact, 60% of the world's oil is located in just a few giant fields found before 1970. Without many more giants, it is impossible to add substantial oil reserves. We now actually discover only around 10 billion bbl each year, but last year we produced over 26 billion bbl. There are now 56 countries where production is in decline, and all but a few special exceptions show that the peak year occurred when 40-60% of reserves had been extracted. It is estimated that, at an annual 1% demand growth, global peak will be reached in 2016. By 2016 or thereabouts, extracting sufficient oil to satisfy a fairly modest 1% global demand growth will be physically impossible, and the eventual shortfalls will lead to competition for supply.3
Peak Oil Coming-2017
Most qualified optimists say peak oil comes in 2017.
Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute, ‘4
(Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World, p. 26-27) [Bozman]
On November 28, 2003, at a conference on energy and the environment organized by the Royal Society of Canada, University of British Columbia professor of human ecology William Rees, widely known for devising the ?ecological footprint? method of measuring environmental impact, forecast that world combined conventional before 2017. This is, in fact, a fairly optimistic date when compared to the predictions of oil industry cassandras like Colin Campbell and Kenneth Deffeyes, who expect the peak to occur within the next few years. Nevertheless, Rees stated that social and political shock waves will be felt when the peak occurs, because alternative sources of energy will be unable to deliver the quality and quantity of energy to which industrial societies have become accustomed.
Peak Oil Coming-2018
Consensus that peak oil will come before 2018.
Willem Nel, Institute for Energy Studies at the University of Johannesburg, and Christopher Cooper, Institute for Energy Studies at the University of Johannesburg, March, ‘8
(A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 3, p. Science Direct) [Bozman]
Many attempts have since been made to analyse peaking of global oil production. The phenomenon of a global peak in the production of conventional oil is termed “Peak Oil”.1 Hubbert's 1977 analysis, based on estimated ultimately recoverable resources, showed that Peak Oil would occur in 1996 (Bentley, 2002). Given global economics, technological advances and geopolitical dynamics, it is not surprising that Hubbert's assessment of Peak Oil was inaccurate. The revaluation of OPEC oil reserves in the mid-1980s was part of the geopolitical dynamics. Based on updated information on reserves, demand, technology and so on, some Peak Oil proponents are predicting a production peak as early as 2008 (Campbell, 2005. Campbell, C.J., 2005. ASPO Newsletter no. 49, January 2005. Available from left angle bracketwww.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL49/newsletter49.pdfright-pointing angle bracket (accessed 1 May 2007).Campbell, 2005, p. 6). The global concern over Peak Oil is evident in the attention it receives from government institutions (Wood et al., 2004; Hall, 2005; Hirsch, 2005; Minestère De L’Économie Des Finances Et De L’Industrie, 2005; Siewert, 2006), financial institutions (Auer, 2004) and oil executives (Ghanem, 2006). According to Ghanem (2006), despite disagreements regarding the exact date, it is generally agreed that Peak Oil will occur within the next decade.
Peak Oil Coming-2020
Major oil fields have already peaked-consensus agrees the peak will come by 2020.
Frederic Leder, Analyst at Esso Research and Engineering & Judith Shapiro, President of Strategic Enterprises, August, ‘8
(Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 8, p. 2840-2842, Science Direct) [Bozman]
The US petroleum industry is an excellent model of what is likely to happen in the world markets. In the beginning of the petroleum era in America the supply seemed unlimited, but eventually new reserves became more difficult to find. The discovery peak, i.e. the maximum in the rate of discovery in the US, was in 1957. After a peak and subsequent decline in the discovery rates, it seemed clear that there must eventually be a peak in oil production rates as well. In the 1950s the task of predicting the year of the maximum rate of production, and what that production might be, fell to a petroleum geologist by the name of M. King Hubbert. In 1956 Hubbert accurately predicted that by the early 1970s, a time approximately 15 years in the future, US production of oil would reach its maximum and thereafter would go into an irreversible decline. This peak occurred in 1972 at 10 million barrels per day (mb/d), and US production is now down to half of what it was at that time (Hubbert, 1982). The Hubbert theory of peak production worked so well in the United States that it was extended to consideration of the entire world's petroleum production. An association was formed by researchers interested in this field, called the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. This group attempted to apply the work done by Hubbert in the US to various production regions throughout the world and to feed the results into an assessment of world production rates. Their studies, undertaken in 2000, were encouraged by the fact that oil discovery rates worldwide reached a peak in 1980 and then went into decline. The ASPO predicted a peak and subsequent decline in world production in the very near future, i.e. about 2010. Production peaks vary by region. For example, most of the UK/North Sea fields reached maximum production levels in 1985–1990 and have gone into decline, presently producing at about half their prior rates (Blanchard, 2000). In his book, Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons (2005) suggests that Saudi Arabian oil production is already at or near its maximum production rate, and because of the fragile petroleum geology of the reservoirs, it is likely to go into steep decline. At the same time the demand for energy continues to grow, in some countries at very high rates. For instance, according to the International Energy Agency (2007), demand for world energy is expected to increase 50% by 2030, and 45% of that increase will be in China and India alone. China is now marginally self-sufficient in oil, but by 2027, i.e. in less than 20 years, China is projected to be importing nine million barrels per day. Growth rates in India and other industrializing countries are similarly high. Even in fully industrialized countries demand for oil continues to grow at 1–2% per year. Projections by government agencies and the planning departments of several major oil companies indicate a 32% rise in the demand for oil alone over the next 20 years (ExxonMobil, 2006). This would require world production rates of 101 million barrels per day in 2020, estimates which fly in the face of the Hubbert and related projections of what is possible. For instance, Colin Campbell, the founder of the ASPO, has forecasted a production peak of 66 mb/d in 2020 (Campbell, 2006 Campbell, C., 2006. Regular conventional oil production to 2010 and resources based production forecast. left angle brackethttp://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/right-pointing angle bracket.Campbell, 2006). Our estimates predict a decline from the present 85 to 67–68 mb/d in 2020, a number substantially in agreement. This would mean a shortfall of 33 mb/d, approximately one-third of world demand.
Production peak will occur by 2020-optomists concede.
Paul Roberts, Journalist, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, ‘4 (The End of Oil, p. 13-14) [Bozman]
Share with your friends: |
