Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
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- Oil Prices – A2 Bubble
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Oil Prices – DownOil prices are declining due to decreased demand and improved US-Iranian relations Jad Mouawad, masters political science from Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris and Michael Grynbaum, economic writer NYT, 7-17-08 http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=14556594, Oil falls, but consumer prices remain a concern, International Herald Tribune Oil futures fell $4.14, or 3 percent, to $134.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That followed a $6.44 drop on Tuesday, the biggest one-day decline since 1991. Some analysts said oil prices may have reached a peak last week, with big customers like airlines and refiners balking at paying close to $150 a barrel. "We're definitely seeing a turnaround in the market, at least in the short term," said David Kirsch, an energy analyst at PFC Energy, a consulting group in Washington. "A lot of quarters are concluding that at $135, oil is just too expensive, particularly in this economic environment." While demand is falling in the United States and Western Europe, oil consumption is still expected to rise this year, because of growth in China, India, and the Middle East. That growth, which should reach about a million barrels a day this year, provides a floor for oil prices. Still, the shift in sentiment was exacerbated by easing geopolitical tensions that had sustained last week's gains, particularly surrounding Iran, OPEC's second-biggest oil producer. The Bush administration said on Tuesday that it would allow a senior diplomat to attend a meeting of European and Iranian negotiators over Iran's nuclear program, in what would be the highest-level talks between American and Iranian representatives since 1979. Fears of a military strike by Israel or the United States on Iran's nuclear operations helped push oil prices to record highs last week. John Kilduff, an energy analyst at MF Global, said the news about Iran and the unexpected increase in oil inventories were "a one-two punch for bears" that could signal a deeper drop in prices in coming weeks. Increased oil stocks and decreased consumption have stopped price increases Jad Mouawad, masters political science from Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris and Michael Grynbaum, economic writer NYT, 7-17-08 http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=14556594, Oil falls, but consumer prices remain a concern, International Herald Tribune In the United States, consumers have cut their gasoline consumption in the face of record prices. Gasoline demand in the United States, for example, fell 5.2 percent last week, according to a nationwide survey by MasterCard, its 12th consecutive weekly drop. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline demand has dropped by about 1 percent. As a result of higher gas prices and reduced demand, refiners are using less oil. Instead of falling as refiners draw on their inventories, oil stocks built up. Oil stocks rose 2.95 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels last week, a report by the Department of Energy showed on Wednesday. Analysts had expected inventories to drop by about 2.2 million barrels. Oil Prices – A2 BubbleOil prices aren’t a bubble – no inventory buildup Steven Mufson, Washington Post energy correspondent, 7-16-08 http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/energywire/2008/07/speculating_about_an_oil_bubbl.html, Speculating About an Oil "Bubble", Energy Wire The price of crude oil has tumbled almost $11 a barrel in less than two days and a lot of people are (again) asking: Has it all been a bubble? Is it about to burst? Have prices fallen short of the predictions of the financial analysts who were talking up the idea of $150 or $200 a barrel? I don't think it's quite that simple. I think that a combination of things are happening to oil prices: an influx of financial players into the market has helped drive up prices, but they wouldn’t have been able to do that in a sustained way if the gap between global production capacity and global oil consumption were not so narrow. Most economists would disagree. They say that you can’t have a bubble without a build-up in inventories (there has been little evidence of that), and that futures prices are like side bets that don’t affect the real market. A lot of oil analysts, however, say that you can have a bubble in oil just as you had a bubble in tech stocks or housing, and that high futures prices mimic inventory hoarding because on the New York Mercantile Exchange you can take delivery. Oil Prices – A2 Declining NowWeekly jumps in oil are irrelevant – steady demand means gradual price increases Steven Mufson, Washington Post energy correspondent, 7-16-08 http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/energywire/2008/07/speculating_about_an_oil_bubbl.html, Speculating About an Oil "Bubble", Energy Wire
http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3301:the-peak-oil-crisis-the-blackouts-spread&catid=17:national-commentary&Itemid=79, The Peak Oil Crisis: The Blackouts Spread, Falls Church News-Press The next important pair of countries in terms of their impact on western economies is China and India, and although their situations are nowhere near as serious as the problems in Pakistan and Bangladesh, both are beginning to suffer from electricity shortages which will impact economic growth. China, which now has a shortfall of around four percent of its normal electricity production, is compensating by cutting back on production of aluminum and zinc which consume prodigious quantities of electric power. The recent earthquake has given Beijing pause in its ambitious plans to expand hydro and nuclear power production. If China cannot increase coal production rapidly enough to keep up electricity generation for its rapidly expanding economy, it is likely to increase imports of coal and oil keeping pressure on world prices. So far there is no indication of an unusually large increase in Chinese oil imports as there was during the power shortage four years ago. The world price of diesel is simply too expensive to be used to generate electricity for industrial production these days. Oil Prices – DownOil prices are steadily declining – decreased demand, increased US stockpiles Xinhua News, 7-18-08 Oil prices drop below 130 USD, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/18/content_8565081.htm - Oil prices continued to slide and closed below 130 U.S. dollars a barrel for the first time in more than a month on Thursday on growing concerns about the health of U.S. economy. Light, sweet crude for August delivery tumbled 5.31 dollars to settle at 129.29 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have fallen more than 15 dollars in the past three trading sessions. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil stockpiles jumped by 3 million barrels and natural gas inventories rose by 104 billion cubic feet last week. The unexpected increase prompted the large sell-off as the investors are concerned that the high energy prices have curtailed the demand. Crude oil has also been pressured from the growing concerns on the inflation risk and the weak U.S. economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Congress that "numerous difficulties" represent "significant downside risks" to economic growth. Oil Prices – A2 DrillingOnly a reduction in demand for oil can prevent further increases Gal Luft, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR INSTITUTE FOR THE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL SECURITY, 10-20-05 http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/testimony/2005/LuftTestimony051020.pdf, Testimony before SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON NEAR EASTERN AND SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS, America’s oil dependence and its implications for U.S. Middle East policy Myth 1: The U.S. can end its dependence on the Middle East by diversifying its sources beyond the region. Since oil is a fungible commodity, it does not matter what proportion of the oil the U.S. imports comes from the Middle East, what matters is the share of Middle East producers in overall supply. The oil market is like a huge pool: producers pour in oil while consumers draw it out. Prices and supply levels are determined in the international markets. If all we do is shuffle around our sources of oil supply, but demand for oil does not drop, the influx of petrodollars to proliferators and apologists for radical Islam as well as the vulnerability of the U.S. to international oil terrorism would remain the same even if the U.S. did not import a drop of oil from the Middle East. Myth 2: The U.S. can drill its way out of its energy problem. Tapping our domestic reserves which, all included, amount to less than 3% of the world’s reserves, is no more than a stopgap solution. Considering America's vast long term needs our domestic reserves are a drop in the bucket. Assuming that all the oil that is claimed to be in Alaska is indeed there, the U.S.’ share of world oil would increase by less than half of a percent. No doubt unconventional petroleum sources available in the Western Hemisphere like Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan extra heavy crude could provide 6 some relief but by no means can they significantly reduce America’s dependence on the Middle East. While there is no alternative to dependence on Middle Eastern oil, there are clearly alternatives to oil, particularly in the transportation sector, where two-thirds of U.S. oil is consumed. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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