Осетрова Е. Е. Пособие по общественно-политическому переводу elections

The buzz is about John Edwards. All right, it's about John Kerry, too, the Massachusetts senator who has salvaged a flagging campaign to grab⁵ a tiny lead at the top of the polls for today's caucuses in Iowa – but it is the sudden success of Edwards, the youthful, one-term senator from South Carolina, who has set some Democratic campaigners wondering if they have finally stumbled on "a new Clinton" who could rescue the party, either this year or in 2008.

Even those who find that far-fetched are questioning the assumption that Howard Dean, the former Vermont Governor, is the inevitable front-runner to challenge⁶ President Bush in November.

Polls yesterday showed⁷ the upset that has the country riveted. Dean, who was riding high at 45 per cent just weeks ago when he was endorsed by Al Gore, the former Vice-President, now musters just under 20 per cent, according to the survey by the Des Moines Register⁸. That puts him third.

Kerry has 26 per cent, and Edwards, long seen as the underdog, is in second with 23 per cent. Dick Gephardt, the Missouri congressman and a senior figure in the House of Representatives, who was seen as Dean's fiercest rival in Iowa, has slumped to fourth place with just 18 per cent.

Lien Chan, Taiwan's opposition presidential candidate, is gaining ground in the island's fiercely fought election campaign. Mr Lien this week regained his lead over Chen Shui-bian, the incumbent, aides from both campaigns and political observers said yesterday.

If Mr Lien wins Saturday's election, tensions with China, which claims sovereignty over the self-ruled island and has attacked Mr Chen for trying to sneak towards formal independence, are expected to recede⁹.

No opinion polls may be published in the last 10 days before the election under Taiwanese law. The last legally available polls, early last week, showed Mr Chen and Mr Lien tied or a slight lead for Mr Chen.

"We had great momentum after February 28," said a legislator of Mr Chen's Democratic Progressive Party, referring to a huge rally organised late last month. DPP supporters formed a human chain the length of the island to protest ¹⁰against the military threat from China. "But we peaked too early," he said.

Senior cadres at the opposition Nationalists said they believed Mr Lien could win by a margin of up to seven percentage points.

The opposition owes its regained lead to the huge rallies it held last weekend, repeated allegations of corruption against the ruling party, and evidence of financial irregularities against Wu Sue-jen, the First Lady, said Tim Ting, who owns 50 per cent of Gallup Market Research Corp Taiwan.
3. Kerry stumbles in key states as Bush widens lead
in poll

John Kerry has fallen behind in the three biggest swing states – Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio – which pollsters from both parties believe will be the key to the US presidential election, it emerged yesterday.

Polling figures suggest that George Bush's surge in support after the Republican convention has settled into a significant lead, confronting John Kerry with difficult tactical choices as he battles to regain the initiative.

A poll by Time magazine showed the president on 52%, with the Democratic challenger on 41%. This is as wide a lead as Mr Bush enjoyed in the immediate aftermath of the New York convention. Newsweek magazine, however, found the Bush margin had diminished to six percentage points in the past week.

To some extent, the varying results reflect differing polling methods. Time based its results on likely voters, identified by a number of questions on their voting background and intentions. The Newsweek survey looked at all registered voters.

But the common theme is that the president's advantage has outlasted the hoopla of the Republican rally. The trend is also moving against Mr Kerry in the most closely-contested swing states.

The conventional wisdom among pollsters in both camps has been that whoever wins two out of the three biggest swing states – Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio – will win the election. Mr Kerry is currently behind in all three: Ohio by eight percentage points, Florida by four points, and Pennsylvania by one point.

"It's clear this is more than a 'bounce'," said Andrew Kohut, the head of the Pew Research Centre, an independent polling organisation in Washington.

"Kerry has clearly underperformed. He's lost the first round, but the question becomes, how stable is the Bush lead – and we don't know that yet. There are still a lot of variables, like what happens in Iraq and the candidates' performance in the debates, so there are still opportunities for Kerry".

However, over the past two weeks, there has been a shift in voters' perceptions of both candidates. More than half of the US electorate now has a favourable opinion of Mr Bush, according to the Newsweek survey. Meanwhile, Mr Kerry's favourable ratings, at 48%, have yet to recover from the battering he suffered from Republican speakers at the convention.

The polling results have also shown that the Republican convention "reset" the election agenda, at least for now. Terrorism has become the top issue for voters, displacing concerns about the economy and healthcare, which took precedence until August.

The nationwide shift in public opinion has been reflected in the roughly 20 swing states where the daily battle is being fought.

States like Virginia, Arizona and Missouri, where Mr Kerry believed he had a serious chance a month ago, now appear to be solidly behind the president, potentially gaining Mr Bush crucial votes in the 538-seat electoral college that formally picks the president after the election.
4. Presidential candidates struggle to win over Taiwan's
bored youth

Young voters could make the difference in a neck-to-neck race between Mr Lien and President Chen Shui-bian in the election to be held¹¹on March 30. About 1.5 m Taiwanese aged 20-23 can vote for the first time this year. And because they are less firmly affiliated to either the ruling Democratic Progressive party or the opposition Nationalists than either their parents or grandparents, they are one of the most unpredictable sub-sets of a large pool of swing voters.

Mr Chen enjoys a lead of 6 to 10 percentage points over Mr Lien among first-time voters, says Chen Lu-hui, a researcher with the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University.

Being 14 years younger than Mr Lien, Mr Chen, 53, brought a younger generation of politicians to his party's decision-making centre when he took over four years ago. In contrast, Nationalist younger politicians such as popular Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou are forced to wait in the wings by Mr Lien's insistence on another presidential bid.

Mr Chen has a stronger appeal to very young voters also because he pledges to strengthen their voice in politics: he has proposed lowering the voting age from 20 to 18 years and lowering the threshold for passive voting rights from 23 years.

Most importantly, the DPP's strong stance on a Taiwanese rather than Chinese identity seems closer to younger people's hearts. According to a survey by TVBS, a domestic television channel, as much as 60 per cent of 13-22-year-olds see themselves as Taiwanese only, whereas only 6 per cent feel they are Chinese, and 34 per cent define themselves as both.

The battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has split into two distinct races as Richard Gephardt and Wesley Clark fight in different states to become the recognised alternative to Howard Dean, the controversial front-runner.

Dr Dean won the priceless endorsement on Friday оf Tom Harkin, an Iowa senator who won the state in a 1992 presidential run and who boasts unrivalled influence there. Al Gore, the former Vice-President and Democratic presidential candidate in 2000, also campaigned for Dr Dean But Mr Gephardt won the 1988 Iowa caucuses and has a loyal following and strong local support for a contest that rewards organisation.

If Mr Gephardt fails to win¹² Iowa, his campaign is over, but if he beats Dr Dean by however little, he could claim the mantle of the ABD – the Anyone But Dean – candidate.

Dr Dean, a former doctor and star performer of the race in terms of fundraising, crowd pleasing and polling, seemed to be running away with the race a month ago. But a series of gaffes over Iraq and the War on Terror, and U-turns over trade and health policy, has raised fears among some Democrats that he would be easy meat for Mr Bush.

Even if Dr Dean wins Iowa, General Clark's surge in New Hampshire poses another serious threat. General Clark entered the race four months ago, long after the rest of the field, but raised $10 million (£5.4 million) in the last quarter of 2003, more than anyone but Dr Dean.

Dr Dean has had a double digit lead in New Hampshire for months, but General Clark could claim a victory of sorts with even a good second place, and gain vital momentum for the next round of voting, which includes South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arizona and New Mexico – states where his Southern roots and military background could help him significantly.

Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Democrats are the main beneficiaries from a collapse in trust for Tony Blair and a fall in Labour's rating to its lowest for 16 years, according to a Populus poll for The Times.

A mere third of those who think the war was wrong trust Mr Blair. But the Tories have not benefited. The Liberal Democrats have jumped four points since last month, up to 25 per cent, back near their highest levels of the late winter when they opposed the war. Their support has fluctuated since the end of the war but they have been above 20 per cent for well over a year, benefiting from growing disillusionment with Labour and lack of enthusiasm for the Tories.

These poll figures will boost Lib Dem morale as the party seeks to challenge¹³ both Labour and the Tories rival parties in the forthcoming parliamentary by-election (for which no date has yet been set).

Charles Kennedy is also both the highest-rated leader, with 5 out of 10 on the Populus leader index, and the most trusted of the three main leaders.

Jain Duncan Smith is still third on the leader index, at 4.35, the same as in recent months.

The Tory leader also lags bebehind Mr Kennedy on trust.

Half the public (52 per cent) trusts him a great deal or a bit, while two fifths (42 per cent) trust him very little or not at all.

These findings point to a marked polarisation in public attitudes, between Labour supporters who still trust Mr Blair and others, both Tories and Lib Dems, who hardly trust him at all. There are parallels to the sharp divergence in the American attitudes towards President Clinton in the mid-1990s.

The latest poll shows "others" again on 9 per cent, a high figure by past comparisons. The others are split between nationalists, Greens and various fringe parties. Like the Lib Dems, they, too, have benefited from a "plague on both your houses" attitude to Labour and the Tories.

Taken together, support for the Lib Dems and others together is now running at about a third.

This implies that the Lib Dems and the others could do well in the European Parliamentary and Greater London elections which will be held next June which will be held under proportional representation systems of election.

But the rise in support for the others may limit the success of the Lib Dems under the first-past-the-post system used in parliamentary and council elections.

Washington – John Kerry captured the Democratic nomination to challenge U.S. President George W. Bush in November, scoring a string of coast-to-coast wins on Tuesday that knocked rival John Edwards out of the race.

The Massachusetts senator continued his domination of the Democratic race on its biggest night of voting, scoring wins in nine states including victories in Georgia, Minnesota and Ohio, which had been targeted by Edwards.

The wins capped a spectacular political resurrection for Kerry, whose campaign was considered dead just two months ago but charged back to life as Democrats began to evaluate which candidate stood the best chance to beat Bush in November.

Kerry and Bush now embark on what promises to be a hard-fought, eight-month general election campaign. Bush, who trails Kerry in some opinion polls, launches his first television ads in 17 battleground states on Thursday as he starts to spend a more than $100 million campaign war chest.

Edwards had hoped to slow Kerry's march to the nomination, but narrowly lost Georgia and was swamped by Kerry in most of the other states voting on "Super Tuesday".

Former presidential contender Howard Dean, who dropped out of the race two weeks ago without a single win, triumphed in his home state of Vermont to spoil Kerry's bid for a perfect sweep.

In addition to Georgia, Minnesota and Ohio, Kerry won in California, Connecticut, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island and his home state оf Massachusetts, giving him 27 wins in the first 30 Democratic contests.

At stake on Tuesday was a total оf 1,151 delegates to July's nominating convention – more than half of the 2,162 delegates needed to win and the campaign's biggest one-day haul.

The wins did not give Kerry, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, enough delegates to clinch the nomination, but made it almost mathematically impossible for Edwards, his last major rival, to catch him.

1. 
   As well as having the most extreme haircut, the most unlikely taste in music and the highest approval ratings, Junichiro Koizumi appears to be the Japanese Prime Minister least shy about exposing himself to the public gaze.
   
2. 
   A leader of sporadic ambition and unfulfilled promise, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroöder appears to be on his way to a political afterlife of memoir writing and high-priced speeches.
   
3. 
   The prime minister's Labour Party is likely to remain in power despite widespread dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq.
   
4. 
   Mr Tsang is expected to be confirmed as Chief Executive this summer by the 800 members of the Hong Kong electoral college, which Beijing controls.
   
5. 
   President Meles, 50, who was a key member of Tony Blair's Commission for Africa, which sought ways to lift the continent out of poverty, is widely expected to win a third term.
   
6. 
   Allawi said Tuesday that he expected the country's next government to be Islamic¹⁴ but hoped that more liberal voices would be heard in the shaping of Iraq's future.
   
7. 
   The Conservatives appear to be failing at a familiar mission: to paint such an unpleasant picture of the prime minister and his Labour government that the electorate will turn against them at the polls.
   
8. 
   Mr Tung's fate appeared to have been sealed when Hu Jintao, the Chinese President, gave him a very public rap on the knuckles for his poor performance last year.
   
9. 
   If Signor Berlusconi fails to hold the coalition together, Italy is likely to face an early election in the summer.
   
10. 
    The voters' roll is thought to list large numbers of dead people, and the names of many ZANU supporters are thought to appear more than once.
    
11. 
    Germany’s hard-fought general election appeared to end in a virtual dead heat - probably the worst result possible for the country and for the cause of reform.
    
12. 
    She is still likely to become Germany’s chancellor next week, but her initial lead in the polls started to ebb away.
    
13. 
    Most experts instead expect the SPD to enter a “grand coalition” with Mrs Merkel.
    
14. 
    The African Union (AU) and the United nations seem to have come down on Mr Gbagbo’s side.
    
15. 
    British prime minister Tony Blair is expected Tuesday to call a national election that will determine whether his government, badly shaken by the Iraq war, wins a third term in office.
    
16. 
    Western diplomats expected Mr Mubarak to cruise to an easy victory with perhaps 75 per cent of the vote.
    
17. 
    But the conduct of the election, never expected to be perfect, seemed to satisfy diplomats from western countries that have been pressing for political reform.
    
18. 
    Less than one month ago John Kerry’s presidential campaign appeared to be on the verge of extinction. The Massachusets senator and Vietnam War hero’s poll figures were plunging, campaign donors were deserting him and the pundits were circling like vultures.
    
19. 
    United Russia is polling about 34 per cent of the vote, with the Communists on 14 per cent. The only other serious opposition parties are the Union of Right Forces, led by Boris Nemtsov, a young, westernised ex-governor, and Yabloko, headed by Grigory Yavlinksy, the veteran liberal. Neither is expected to win more than 10 per cent.
    
20. 
    It is a side of Dean that contributed to his defeat. The shifts in the last week of the Iowa campaign, and close analysis by pollsters, showed that voters were nervous of his record of wild gaffes and sceptical of the value of being an “outsider” to Washington, as he often boasted. Above all, they seem to have been repelled by his anger, the hallmark of his stump speeches.
    

1. 
   Several opinion polls published Tuesday showed Labour giving ground¹⁵ slightly to the Conservatives, although still with leads of between 2 and 5 percentage points. Given¹⁶ the margin of error, the parties were virtually neck and neck. Analysts say, however, that the Conservatives would need a lead of several points to win the election, due to an uneven spread of constituencies across Britain's electoral map.
   
2. 
   Senator John Kerry fought his way through a tough and expensive Democratic primary season only to find himself with relatively little cash and struggling to compete against an advertising onslaught by President George Bush, whose campaign has roughly 10 times more money.
   
3. 
   Eight years later, Schröder and the Social Democrats defeated Chancellor Helmut Kohl to lead the country of 82 million.
   
4. 
   Israel inched closer to early elections Thursday after a fiery Moroccan-born union leader edged out elder statesman Shimon Peres to become Labor Party leader, shaking up Israeli politics and breaking through a long-standing ethnic barrier.
   
5. 
   That same magic nearly worked in September, when Schröder trailed again by double digits to come to within 1 percentage point of the Christian Democrats.
   
6. 
   Nobody did more for the left than Pedro Santana Lopes, the former mayor of Lisbon who took over as prime minister last July, when Jose Manuel Barroso stepped down to become European Commission president.
   
7. 
   Mrs Merkel had a huge opinion poll lead, only to end up with 35,2% of the vote, one of the worst results in the party’s history.
   
8. 
   He was the first chancellor to bring Germany to the world stage as a normal country able to define its own interests without being considered nationalistic.
   
9. 
   More than 90 per cent of the country's 26 million registered voters were expected to cast their ballots in only the second election since the advent of multiparty politics and the first to be watched by foreign observers.
   
10. 
    Mr Dean, the former Vermont governor, is the only candidate to have generated momentum in the polls and buzz in the media.
    
11. 
    Schröder is set to leave office this month after seven years of leadership that failed to reinvent the welfare state but restored Germans' confidence in their country's handling of world affairs, most notably through his vigorous opposition to the Iraq war.
    
12. 
    He was widely seen as a discredited figure after his first spell as president, from 1989 to 1997, and failed to win election to the parliament in 2000.
    
13. 
    The decision establishes him as an immediate front-runner among election hopefuls including six hardliners and two reformers.
    
14. 
    The 50-year-old first-term senator from North Carolina is trailing John Kerry in all ten states, in which about six million voters will choose which of them is best able to beat President Bush.
    
15. 
    The carefully orchestrated announcement, coming the morning after Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts effectively seized the Democratic nomination, was clearly timed to signal that the White House was eager to move swiftly and aggressively into the general election phase after months of being hammered by the Democratic candidates and watching the president's poll ratings drop.
    
16. 
    Having won 18 of the first 20 primaries, Senator Kerry has accumulated a lead of 688 delegates against 207 delegates pledged to support Senator Edwards, who has only won one primary. To close that gap, the Southerner would not only have to start winning primaries but winning them by large margins.
    
17. 
    Analysts say he faces an almost impossible task to catch up with the frontrunner, John Kerry.
    
18. 
    ACNielsen and Newpoll surveys conducted at the weekend show a surge in support for Labour, putting it several points ahead of John Howard’s centre-right coalition, just months away from a federal election.
    
19. 
    No attempt to abolish the electoral college and replace it with direct popular election of the president has ever made significant headway.
    
20. 
    He is one of 10 candidates preparing to run in what, even by Russian standards, is turning into the strangest election in recent years. None of the political "heavy-weights" of the 1990s is participating. And most of those who are standing play down the idea that they are opposing Mr Putin, who stands to win 80 per cent of the votes, according to the latest poll by the VTsIOM institute.
    

1. 
   He says the elder Mr Bush was in better shape in the polls than his son at this time in the election cycle. The father's ratings hit 85 per cent in March 1991, levelled off at about 71 per cent that summer, but fell to 31 per cent by mid-1992. Mr Bush's approval rating, according to a Gallup poll last week, is at 59 per cent.
   
2. 
   Most notably the SPD again overtook the cdu in North Rhine-Westphalia. It was the SPD's crushing defeat there in the spring that led Mr Schroder to seek early national elections.
   
3. 
   Even days before last Sunday's vote, pollsters said the CDU would top 40% and that Angela Merkel, the party's boss, would at least be unchallenged to head a big left-right coalition.
   
4. 
   Early results showed that. As in the nationwide vote two weeks ago, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) were neck and neck, with the CDU narrowly ahead.
   
5. 
   After a stumbling campaign marked by gaffes and a wooden timidity, Angela Merkel threw away the early huge lead of her opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and limped a couple of points ahead of Gerhard Schröder.
   
6. 
   Mr Dean, once the frontrunner in both contests, has been losing ground to Mr Clark in New Hamphire’s opinion polls.
   
7. 
   The Kerry camp insists that the battle is far from over. Much bigger leads have been overturned in the last 50 days of a campaign, and the debates can be decisive in a tight race.
   
8. 
   Half of the public (51 per cent) believes that the war in Iraq was the right thing to do, while two fifth (41 per cent) disagree. This is a slightly bigger margin than the 47 to 45 per cent balance a month ago.
   
9. 
   President Vladimir Putin’s supporters Friday delivered 2.5 million signatures required for him to register as a candidate for re-election, while his potential rivals lagged behind.
   
10. 
    Bush and Kerry are vying for 270 electoral college votes in Tuesday's election. Each state is awarded a certain number of electoral votes related to its population, and in all but two states, whoever wins the most votes captures all of that state's electoral votes. The top three prizes among battleground states are Florida, with 27 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, with 21, and Ohio, with 20.
    
11. 
    Under the system of mixed member proportional representation, which replaces first past the post, the number of MPs is decided both by electorate votes and the overall share of the poll each party secures.
    
12. 
    In the light of all the latest state polls, the bloc of states backing the president accounted for 168 electoral college votes and the states solidly behind Mr Kerry carried 146, with 224 votes up for grabs – from states that were either tied or where the margin between the candidates was less than the margin of error. A total of 270 votes is required to win.
    
13. 
    “In order to truly level the playing field, every single presidential candidate should pledge to stay within the public financing system”, said Dick Gephardt, the Missouri congressman who is running neck-and-neck with Mr Dean in Iowa.
    
14. 
    After a trouble-free three days, strategists now share the optimism of the jubilant grassroots that Mr Bush has turned a corner in the race that polls suggest has been neck-and-neck all summer.
    
15. 
    Senators John Kerry and John Edwards are gaining ground in the nation's most populous state, where voters are "surprisingly engaged" in the presidential election process, according to a poll from the Public Policy Institute of California.
    
16. 
    The Democratic team is favoured by 54 per cent of likely voters in preference to President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney, and has opened a 16-point lead over the incumbents, up from 11 points last month.
    

1. 
   Late polls showed Oscar Berger, former Guatemala City mayor, virtually tied with Alvaro Colom, a respected leftist now heading a centre-right coalition.
   
2. 
   It is still possible that enough Iowa voters will still support Mr Clark, for example, if he continues to lead the national polls showing him running first in the Democratic race, despite the fact he has chosen not to campaign actively there.
   
3. 
   New Zealand’s first election under proportional representation is proving difficult for voters, commentators and politicians alike.
   
4. 
   In the latest polls in Iowa and new Hampshire, Mr Dean is in the lead – only by a margin of error in Iowa, but by 21 points over Mr Kerry in New Hampshire.
   
5. 
   The key to understanding the SPD’s falling popularity – it lagged 23 percentage point behind the conservative CDU/CSU parties in an opinion poll published on September 13 and has been losing ground since July – could lie in a revealing study published last week.
   
6. 
   Mr Karamanlis, leader of the right-of-centre New Democracy, has maintained a small lead in the polls by pushing family values and performing well in debates.
   
7. 
   Edwards, in particular, was more aggressive than usual, perhaps in part due to his desire to cut into what many Democrats see as Kerry’s powerful lead. In contrast to his usual sunny disposition on the campaign trail, Edwards, went after Kerry for what he called “the same old Washington talk that people have been listening to for decades”.
   
8. 
   She (Hillary Clinton) is not taking part in this year’s primary contest, but is already seen as the party’s frontrunner in 2008, if President Bush wins re-election.
   
9. 
   Mr Lula da Silva's approval rating jumped 8.8 percentage-points between June and August, to 38.2 per cent, according to a poll conducted by the Sensus institute on behalf of the National Transport Confederation (CNT).
   
10. 
    Other polls echo that trend. Gallup had Mr Kerry leading Mr Bush among women by 51 per cent to 46 before the Republican convention, a gap that narrowed to 49–48 afterwards.
    
11. 
    Despite gaining in polls in Iowa in the last ten days, few foresaw the scale of Mr Kerry’s victory.
    
12. 
    His domination of the Iowa caucuses cements this reputation as a survivor: of the Vietnam war, prostate cancer, and now political humiliation. Two weeks ago Mr Kerry's bid for the Democratic nomination was being written off as a joke. He was a dozen points behind Howard Dean in New Hampshire, virtually Mr Kerry's backyard.
    
13. 
    He gave most prominence to his "War on Terror" – and with good reason. Two sets of respected polls just before the speech showed that Americans still rate him highly on the fight against terrorism, if slightly less so on Iraq. That, more than any domestic policy, underpins his popularity.
    
14. 
    A year ago many of the serious presidential contenders calculated that they had no option but to back Mr Bush. At the time his approval ratings, especially for his handling of the war on terrorism, were high, and his opponents feared that voting against the war would risk them appearing weak in the eyes of voters.
    
15. 
    But with the war a concern, he begins his new term with the lowest approval rating at that point of any recent two-term president – 49 percent in an Associated Press poll this month. Many around the world are nervous about the intentions of a leader they regard as cocky, shallow and dangerous.
    

Even Mr Kerry's personal wealth – he is married to a Heinz heiress – will do little to help him because of campaign spending rules. He will have to rely on outside support to restock his coffers after mortgaging his Boston mansion to set himself up as the Democrat (...).

The most recent statement by his campaign showed that he had $2.1 million in the bank on February 1, and debts of $7.2 million. After two dozen (…) since then, his debts are likely to have risen significantly.

Mr Bush, who (…) unopposed for the Republican (...) and benefits from free daily advertising as the White House (...), had $104 million on February 1 and no debt. He raised another $800,000 in California on Wednesday, a state he lost to Al Gore four years ago.

Mr Kerry's campaign says it can count on several of the Democrats he (...) during the race for the party's (...) to contribute donor lists to the effort (...) Mr Bush. Dick Gephardt and Wesley Clark are apparently already on board. John Edwards, his closest (…) and a possible (...) has also promised to help. Howard Dean, the former (...) is ideologically closer to Mr Edwards and has yet to promise official backing.

Mr Kerry has pulled in $1.2 million over the internet in less than 24 hours after sweeping his closest rival out of (...) this week in the "Super Tuesday" (...). But that still leaves a big financial gap to bridge.

The endorsement by Ms Braun, one of two black (...) in the race, gave a timely (…) to Mr Dean's candidacy in (...) next Monday's Iowa (...).

Ms Braun had not made much of an impact on the race, languishing near the back of the nine-person field. But her decision is expected (...) Mr Dean among black voters and help dispel questions, raised recently in a particularly sharp exchange between Mr Dean and Al Sharpton, the other black candidate, about the former Vermont governor's record on race relations and a lack of (...) in his Vermont cabinet.

Ms Braun remained mostly above the fray of the nasty attacks. Her oft-repeated message was that it was time to "take the 'men only' sign off the White House door". Ms Braun is the second Democratic presidential contender (...). Bob Graham, the Florida senator, (...) last October.

Appearing with Mr Dean in Iowa, she praised him as "a Democrat we can all be proud to support" and as the best choice to "renew our country and restore our privacy, our liberty and our economic security". She also said that Mr Dean "has the energy to inspire the American people" and offers the best alternative to "President Bush and his entourage from the extreme right wing".
c) opinion poll (2), approval rating, primaries and caucuses, challenger,
a head-to-head race, contests, survey, incumbency, to secure the
nomination, registered voters, to beat, momentum.
Mr Kerry has won 15 of the 17 Democrat (...) so far and is the clear leader in fundraising and (…). He has a good chance of (...) on March 2 when ten states, including New York, California, Georgia and Ohio hold (...)

John Edwards, his main (...) cannot be ruled out entirely. For the first time, (...) last week showed both he and Mr Kerry would (...) Mr Bush in (...).

The news from Mr Nader's campaign followed a fresh (...) that showed the challenge Mr Bush faces to stay in the White House despite the many advantages of (...).

(...) in Newsweek magazine suggested that 52 per cent of (...) do not want him re-elected while 43 per cent do. His (...) also stayed below the 50 per cent level, with 48 per cent of Americans disapproving of his leadership.

Mr Kerry, (отстававший от своих соперников) badly for months, (обогнал) the long-term Iowa (лидирующие по опросам кандидаты) Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt to take a five-point (отрыв) after a relentless ten days of (предвыборная агитация) that has attracted (неопределившиеся избиратели) and raised fresh doubts about Dr Dean's electability.

Although the Iowa result is still highly (непредсказуемые), it was clear last night that the state is witnessing the closest and most hard-fought (гонка) in its caucus history.

Just behind Mr Kerry, on 24 per cent, are Dr Dean and Mr Gephardt on 19 per cent, with John Edwards, the North Carolina senator, on 17 per cent.

Mr Kerry's late (рост популярности) has been largely at the expense of Dr Dean, the former Vermont Governor, who only one week ago was on 29 per cent, leading Mr Gephardt, the former Democrat leader in the House of Representatives (на четыре пункта) and Mr Kerry (на 11 пунктов).

Dr Dean, who has seen his support drop in both Iowa and New Hampshire, has suffered after being attacked for alleged verbal (оплошности), alleged dishonesty and fears over his electability – a worrying trend for his campaign as (гонка) heads to more states in coming weeks.

He received one boost on Thursday when Carol Moseley Braun, once the first black woman senator, (отозвала свою кандидатуру) to endorse him.

Mr Gephardt is also in danger of being eclipsed by Mr Kerry and Dr Dean.

Some analysts believe, however, that the four-way result may be so close that Iowa will leave all four campaigns alive as they head to New Hampshire (первичные выборы) on January 27.
b)

Bush enjoys ratings revival
President Bush received a sharp and immediate (рост популярности по опросам общественного мнения) after the capture of Saddam Hussein. His (рейтинг популярности) leapt six points to 58 per cent in the 24 hours after the news broke.

Mr Bush has moved into a comfortable (преимущество над) his Democrat (соперники), who had been steadily gaining on him over the past six months.

(Результаты) of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll show that Saddam's capture has transformed next year's (борьба за президентское кресло), at least in the short term.

(Лидирующие по опросам общественного мнения кандидаты от Демократической партии на пост президента) have been forced to rewrite their campaign scripts to take account of the changed landscape in Iraq. Even while the fallen dictator remained a fugitive, some Democrats feared that Howard Dean, the former Vermont Governor whose anti-war rhetoric has fuelled his remarkable (рост популярности) to the front of the field, would be trounced by Mr Bush.

Some of Dr Dean's (соперники) have formed a semi-official "stop Dean" coalition, a sentiment which has found some support in the party despite Dr Dean's huge (поддержка рядовых избирателей).

Dr Dean insists that Saddam's capture had not made the US safer. It did not alter the fact that Mr Bush had started the war "in the wrong way, at the wrong time, with inadequate planning, insufficient help, and at the extraordinary cost, so far, of $166 billion (£94.6 billion)", he said.

But Joe Lieberman, (кандидат на пост президента от Демократической партии) and Al Gore's (кандидат на пост вице-президента) in 2000, said that Dr Dean had "put himself in his own spider-hole of denial".

In the poll, 62 per cent of those questioned said that the war in Iraq had made the US more secure, a figure up from 52 per cent in September.

For months, the one-term North Carolina senator remained stuck at the bottom of the Democrat pack, his fresh face and lack of political experience perceived as electoral liabilities in the new age of terrorism.

His strong second place in Iowa from virtually nowhere – he (сильно отставал) two weeks ago – is a remarkable turnaround for the Southerner, who now turns his sights to the key (голосования на первичных выборах) in South Carolina on February 3. Many Iowans, worried about the loss of industrial jobs and farm closures, began to respond to Mr Edwards days before (закрытые партийные собрания), not only because of his message but also because of a series of (предвыборные выступления) that were suddenly sharper and at times electrifying.

If Mr Edwards, a (придерживающийся умеренных взглядов) who voted for the Iraq war, wins South Carolina, he believes that his focus on jobs and Mr Bush's "war on work" will prove to have been the right campaign. Americans are now saying that (экономика), not terrorism, is their overwhelming concern.

Mr Edwards, a mill worker's son who made millions as a trial lawyer, often defending working-class clients against giant corporations, was only in single digits in Iowa as recently as November. But he refused to change tack.

Recently turned 50 but youthful and handsome, he stuck to his (обещание, обязательство) to address inequalities in the job market, health system and education and was remorseless in his criticism of President Bush. He also played up his Southern roots, persuading many Iowans that he was uniquely qualified (чтобы бросить вызов) Mr Bush for votes in the South. He said: "Cynics didn't build America. Optimists built America."

During the final week of (предвыборная агитация), Mr Edwards found his optimism and message resonating among (неопределившиеся избиратели). Now he must win South Carolina (чтобы сохранить свои позиции), but he is heavily outfinanced by his (соперники).
V. Translate the headlines:
A.

1. 
   opinion poll boost for NZ opposition
   
2. 
   Spain’s ruling party slips in polls
   
3. 
   Macapagal anD Poe neck and neck AS polls close
   
4. 
   Front runners and dark Horses jockey for position
   
5. 
   Tory unease as lead slips AWAY
   
6. 
   Polls show strong early support for clark
   
7. 
   Frontrunner expected to seal unbeatable Democratic lead
   
8. 
   Kerry sees his lead widen in California
   
9. 
   IRaq row slash labour’s poll lead
   

1. 
   undecided voters swing away from conservatives
   
2. 
   Australian opposition gains ground
   
3. 
   Bush promises a saFer world as polls give him vital boost
   
4. 
   Bush has slim lead
   
5. 
   frontrunner kerry looks to seal bid on super tuesday
   
6. 
   Greek parties neck and neck
   
7. 
   From frontrunner to distant third, Dean’s fire fails to ignite
   
8. 
   exit poll shows yushchenko in lead
   

Таких предвыборных марафонов в Польше еще не было. Первоначально разрыв между претендентами Дональдом Туском и Лехом Качиньским достигал 12 процентов в пользу первого. Но к воскресенью, согласно социологическим опросам, рейтинги кандидатов практически сравнялись – соответственно 50,9 и 49,1 процента.

Однако судьба выборов в Америке определяется не общим числом голосов, поданных за того или иного кандидата, а голосами выборщиков от штатов. Их в общей сложности 538 человек. Чтобы победить, кандидату в президенты необходимо набрать 270 голосов выборщиков.

На выборах 2000 года кандидат от демократов Эл Гор получил на 500 тысяч голосов избирателей больше, чем Джордж Буш, но проиграл выборы из-за Флориды. Там Буш его опередил всего на 537 голосов, и в результате этот штат стал той самой гирей, которая перетянула чашу весов лидера республиканцев – он получил в коллегии выборщиков 271 голос.

Вот почему внимание нации приковано к так называемым не определившимся штатам. Всего их 10, но главные –по количеству избирателей – Огайо, Пенсильвания и Флорида. В Огайо по последним опросам лидирует Буш. Пенсильвания поддерживает Керри. Симпатии Флориды поделены ровно пополам. В штатах Среднего Запада – Айове, Мичигане, Миннесоте и Висконсине – вроде бы лидирует Керри. Зато Буш ненамного опережает соперника в штатах Нью-Мексико, Невада, Колорадо.

Именно в эти не определившиеся штаты и совершили поездки в последние дни оба кандидата. Часто их пути пересекались, а предвыборные митинги проходили в нескольких километрах друг от друга.
c) Во Франции на выборах в Национальное собрание действует мажоритарная система абсолютного большинства. Депутаты Национального собрания избираются раз в пять лет в одномандатных мажоритарных округах абсолютным большинством голосов. Если никто из кандидатов не набирает такого большинства в первом туре, проводится второй тур, в котором участвуют кандидаты, набравшие в первом круге не менее 12,5 процента голосов.

В Германии избирательная система пропорциональная, с элементами мажоритарной. В Италии исключительно пропорциональную недавно сменила мажоритарная с сильным пропорциональным акцентом. В США свои странности: президента там выбирает коллегия выборщиков, в результате чего хозяином Белого дома можно стать, набрав меньше голосов рядовых граждан, нежели соперник, – именно так и произошло в состязании Буша и Гора.