Figure-2: End-To-End Early Warning System

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3.4.3. Areas for Improvement:
In contrast to a problem-driven result from research commissioned by policymakers to meet a specific need, the availability of climate information is opportunity-driven – a product of pure science for use by society, including decision and policymakers. The challenge is the process of adoption, which includes issues of information packaging and communication, expectations from anew technology (spatial and temporal accuracy),
adaptation to the local context, and users needs considerations. Hence, prediction science research needs to be directed to risk concerns of communities. Agriculture community risk based early warning systems, with all interconnected elements need to be established on the end-end early warning system framework. Surveys of all early warning systems, could reveal gaps for possible intervention.
Current systems are focused on saving lives which while very important, must recognize,
that forecasts and warnings have to be specific and timely enough, to save livelihoods.
This calls for improvement in technology to be able to provide higher resolution forecasts, also in the way forecasts are formulated and made use of. Specific skills for interpretation and effective dissemination of the technical warnings and the likely impacts of these hazards on various sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, small enterprises and other livelihood systems, needs immediate addressal. Simultaneously,
disaster managers would need to have the requisite training and resources made available,
to use these impact outlooks to develop and put in practice a specific contingency plan,
that will not only save lives, but also the livelihood systems. This will keep the vulnerable population out of the vicious cycle of economic vulnerability, and thus, reduce the impact of these disasters.
This approach calls for across-the-board collaboration between the warning providers such as the NCMWF/ IMD and the CWC, and the intermediary users such as the various ministries and line departments- agriculture, fisheries, roads, etc, and effective dissemination practices, to arrive at favorable impacts for likely events. Past data which
India already has very systematically, can be utilized. Preparedness and contingency plans can, be prepared at the local levels. The minor, but seriously flood prone rivers which are within a state, are not monitored by the center, and these cause large damage.

An inventory of such rivers could be prepared by the states, so that flood forecasting systems can be evolved, in a prioritized manner.
Tools and practices can be developed to interpret and translate forecast information, into impact outlooks for decision making in reducing disaster risks. Appropriate mechanisms,
will then need to be evolved, to transfer these tools and practices to user institutions. This approach could be piloted in a few sites for different hazards such as riverine floods, flash floods, cyclones, storm surges, and based on the learnings and successes, it can be institutionalized in a nationwide system. Pilot sites can establish a fully functional early warning system, reaching down to communities with demonstrable early warning information flow and feedback arrangements.
There is also a need to facilitate continuous interaction between warning providers,
decision makers and end-users, so that there is a mechanism to obtain continuous feedback from users and decision-makers on the results of application of forecast information for disaster risk reduction. Private – public partnerships will enable localization and reduce the burden on government. Such a process will help continuous refinement and improvement of the entire end-to-end system.

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