Politics – 2011 Michigan Debate Institutes – gls lab
--AT: Impact = Slow**/Impact Defense
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- --XT: Protectionism !
--AT: Impact = Slow**/Impact DefenseImpact will happen quick – based off investor perception Ward 4/22/2011 - Jon, senior political reporter, was Washington Correspondent for The Daily. He was previously White House Correspondent for The Daily Caller (Conservative Strategists Warn GOP About Economic Risks Of Pushing Debt Ceiling Debate Too Far, Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/22/conservative-debt-ceiling-debate_n_852718.html) Conservative strategists are warning that the GOP should not push the debt ceiling debate too close to the breaking point. “If there is a vote on raising the debt ceiling and it fails, there will be a significant market reaction,” said Tony Fratto, a former Treasury and White House official in the Bush administration. “Investors already believe that Congress doesn’t understand the financial markets. A failure to raise the debt ceiling will confirm this to them." If the markets get spooked, U.S. treasury bond yields will spike, driving up interest rates and increasing the price of borrowing money for everyone from the federal government to municipalities to consumers, Fratto warned. The cascading effects on the economy would be severe and long-lasting. The negative market reaction would "come quickly,” Fratto said. “I think you can virtually guarantee that, and I hear it from everyone that I talk to in the markets, here and abroad.” He added, “I’m uncomfortable about the number of [Congress] members who don’t seem to understand that.” But the market’s reaction to any debt vote will depend on what expectations are set by political actors in Washington, cautions Doug Holtz-Eakin, a former top adviser to Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign. Impact is linear – the longer we wait, the worse the economic recession will be International Business Times 4/26/2011 - Boehner: 'Chance' of No Vote on U.S. Debt Ceiling, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/138126/20110426/debt-ceiling-vote-john-boehner-timothy-geithner.htm#ixzz1KeV1H57M The U.S. would reach the limit by May 16 and that extraordinary measures could be taken to borrow within the limit by July 8, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a letter on April 4. "At that point the Treasury would have no remaining borrowing authority," Geithner said, noting that the U.S. would not have enough cash "to meet our commitments securely." "The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said. In a previous letter on January 6, Geithner told Reid that "never in our history has Congress failed to increase the debt limit when necessary. Failure to raise the limit would precipitate a default by the United States. Default would effectively impose a significant and long-lasting tax on all Americans and all American businesses and could lead to the loss of millions of American jobs. Even a very short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades. Failure to increase the limit would be deeply irresponsible." Perception quickly spreads globally. McCarter, 1-5-2011 [Joan, Daily Kos, “New GOP member doesn't "know" what will happen if debt ceiling isn't raised,” http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/01/05/933597/-New-GOP-member-doesnt-know-what-will-happen-if-debt-ceiling-isnt-raised] Although not all the possible consequences of a government default are known, it would mean that the government could no longer meet all of its legal obligations. Not only the default, but the efforts to resolve it would arguably have negative repercussions on both domestic and international financial markets and economies. Not having a crystal ball, CRS can't detail every disaster that could occur with default. But here are a few clues: "the immediate cessation of more than 40 percent of all federal government activities (excluding only interest payments on the national debt), including Social Security, military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, homeland security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance. This would not only threaten the safety and economic security of all Americans, but also have dire impacts for the economy and job growth." That's here at home--and in Iraq and Afghanistan (are they really forgetting about the wars?). Internationally, American default would very likely lead to panic in financial markets, because U.S. Treasury bonds hold so much investment capital, investment that would be disrupted with a default and that could potentially cause a run on outstanding Treasury bonds. (Picture the run on the Bailey Savings and Loan in It's a Wonderful Life times billions? Trillions?) In other words, catastrophe.
[NEWS SENTINEL EDITORIAL BOARD, Knox News, “Editorial: Compromise needed before default,” http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2011/jun/12/compromise-needed-before-default/] Economists of all persuasions say that would mean interest rates would skyrocket, the dollar would collapse and the economy would plunge back into a recession. Credit agencies warn that America's stellar credit rating would take a hit - Fitch Ratings said last week that American securities would be downgraded to junk bond status if the country doesn't meet scheduled debt payments. --XT: Protectionism !If US economy declines, Chinese trade protectionism will increase Spence 6/21 (Michael, Nobel laureate in economics, is professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, distinguished visiting fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 6/21/11, European Voice, “A Post-Crisis World of Risk” http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2011/june/a-post-crisis-world-of-risk/71394.aspx) In all cases, assessments of fiscal balance were mistakenly predicated on the assumed stability and sustainability of the existing growth paths. The assumption that a benign growth and interest-rate environment was a permanent state of affairs led to a massive failure of fiscal counter-cyclicality in the advanced economies, as budget deficits became chronic, rather than a response to depressed domestic demand. In emerging markets, China's growth is crucial, owing to its size and importance as an export market for Brazil, India, South Korea, Japan, and even Germany. But inflation is a dual threat to China, jeopardising both economic growth and internal cohesion. Housing has become unaffordable for many young people entering the workforce. Reining in price and asset inflation without undermining growth will be a delicate balancing act. Moreover, China shares with the US the challenge of limiting growth in income inequality. In both cases, the employment engines need to keep running or be restarted, in order to prevent political volatility and social unrest. Protectionism on a large scale is not a likely outcome – at least not yet – but that could change if employment and distributional issues are not handled well. Protectionism causes nuclear war. Spicer 96 (Michael, 1996 economist and member, Tory Party, British Parliament, THE CHALLENGE FROM THE EAST AND THE REBIRTH OF THE WEST, p. 121.) The choice facing the West today is much the same as that which faced the Soviet bloc after World War II: between meeting head-on the challenge of world trade with the adjustments and the benefits that it will bring, or of attempting to shut out markets that are growing and where a dynamic new pace is being set for innovative production. The problem about the second approach is not simply that it won't hold: satellite technology alone will ensure that the consumers will begin to demand those goods that the East is able to provide most cheaply. More fundamentally, it will guarantee the emergence of a fragmented world in which natural fears will be fanned and inflamed. A world divided into rigid trade blocs will be a deeply troubled and unstable place in which suspicion and ultimately envy will possibly erupt into a major war. I do not say that the converse will necessarily be true, that in a free trading world there will be an absence of all strife. Such a proposition would manifestly be absurd. But to trade is to become interdependent, and that is a good step in the direction of world stability. With nuclear weapons at two a penny, stability will be at a premium in the years ahead. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.58 Mb. Share with your friends:
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