Politics – 2011 Michigan Debate Institutes – gls lab
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Won’t Pass + No ImpactDebt Ceiling won’t pass, but the economy will still be stable regardless Baker 6/20, Dean, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, “The Endgame on the Debt Ceiling” 6/20/11 As we know, President Obama and his team do not appear to be very effective negotiators when it comes to dealing with the Republicans in Congress. Last December, the Republicans forced the president to renew the Bush tax cuts for the rich. More recently, they got him to make $38 billion in cuts to the 2011 budget even though all his economists know that the economy actually needs more stimulus, which more means spending. Since the president is having so much trouble dealing with the Republicans the rest of us should lend him a hand. One way we can do this is by etching out what the endgame looks like in the battle over raising the debt ceiling. As it stands now, we are being told that the Republicans are insisting that there will be no increase in the debt ceiling without large cuts to the budget. Since the Republicans won't go along with any major cuts to the military budget, this means big cuts to the rest of the budget. These cuts would have to include cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, and possibly Social Security as well, since everything else in the non-military portion of the budget does not amount to much. According to this story, President Obama might be forced to make major cuts to the core social insurance programs in order to prevent the disaster of a debt default that would result from not raising the debt ceiling. However the actual picture is a bit different. There is no doubt that the failure to raise the debt ceiling would be very bad news for the economy. If the government had to default on its debt, it would shake the financial markets even more than the collapse of Lehman in September of 2008. We would see a freeze-up of lending and companies would be forced to dump millions of workers, as they could no longer meet their payrolls. But, even in this disaster scenario, there would still be a tomorrow. In other words, after the financial crisis, the economy would still be there. We would still have the same capital stock, infrastructure, skilled work force and state of technical knowledge as we did the day before the crisis. The government and the Federal Reserve Board would have the power to reflate the economy to get it back on its feet just as they did when they engaged in the massive spending needed to fight World War II. Won’t Pass – DemandsCongress in disarray over debt ceiling Politico 6/20 (David Rogers and Manu Raju, staff writers, “Senate GOP keeps high bar in debt talks” http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=37D0944A-11C3-4BE8-A1D9-C14C736F9218) Politics is part of this strategy: The anti-tax right is edgy about last week’s ethanol vote and tax expenditures now coming into play. For his immediate purposes, McConnell can still use a short-term debt increase as a means to force a decision on one of his top priorities — appropriations caps for the next fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, just three months away. But arithmetic is a factor as well. Putting aside those budget cuts related to health care reform—which are veto bait for President Barack Obama—House Republicans have put about $3 trillion in cuts on the table, coming from domestic appropriations, Medicaid, and assorted benefit programs such a federal worker pensions or farm subsidies. Even if the White House and Democrats were to agree to half of these cuts in total—a major concession—revenues could still be needed to fully match the debt ceiling increase needed to carry the government through 2012. This is the pressure McConnell can avoid by going with a smaller, short-term extension. “We haven’t made any progress yet to warrant an increase in the debt ceiling,” Kyl told reporters, and there needs to be “a good four weeks” to turn any deal into legislation, allow the public and Congress to scrutinize it and ultimately vote on it. “Is Aug. 2 a real firm date, it appears to be,” he said, referring to the Treasury Department’s deadline for raising the debt limit. “Are we anywhere close to making any kind of deal that would warrant increasing in the debt ceiling. So far we haven’t. Where does that leave us?” Kyl said the situation was “too serious for anybody to break off negotiations or something like that. I’m just saying we’re going to have to reassess the situation” if the two sides can’t come close to a deal this week. Uniqueness o/w LinkCompromise will be reached; more evidence Crittenden 6/24, (Michael Crittenden, Economic reporter and served three years covering banking, insurance, and financial services in Congress for the Congressional Quarterly, “Geithner Says He’s Confident That Debt Ceiling Will Be Raised”, NASDAQ, June 24, 2011, http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201106241321dowjonesdjonline000478&title=geithner-says-hes-confident-that-debt-ceiling-will-be-raised) MANCHESTER, N.H. -(Dow Jones)- U.S. policy makers will "absolutely" be able to reach a deal to raise the country's debt limit and put in place a plan to lower deficits this summer, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Friday. Geithner, appearing in New Hampshire to meet with local business leaders and give a speech at Dartmouth College, expressed no doubt about the ability of Democrats and Republicans to broker a compromise despite the move Thursday by top GOP representatives to pull out of high-stakes talks being organized by Vice President Joe Biden. "Two things are going to happen this summer. One is we're going to avoid a default crisis because we're a country that meets its obligations; we have no alternative," Geithner told reporters following his meeting with business leaders. "We're also going to reach an agreement to try to bring down long-term deficits. We're not going to solve all that at once but we're going to try to reach an agreement that makes a substantial downpayment on bringing those deficits down over time." Debt Ceiling will pass no matter what Thiessen 6/27 (Marc Thiessen, Political commentator and columnist, speechwriter for George W. Bush and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, “No defense cuts or tax increases in debt deal”, The Washington Post, June 27, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/make-no-defense-cuts-or-tax-increases-in-debt-deal/2011/06/27/AG5buWnH_story.html) Far from giving Obama deep cuts in national defense, Republicans should the ones making the demands in these negotiations — including more domestic spending cuts and a balanced-budget amendment that will force the government to live within its means. If Democrats balk and the Aug. 2 deadline set by the Treasury Department arrives without an agreement, so be it. The sky will not fall. Republicans can simply pass a small, temporary debt-ceiling increase — and attach some of the $2 trillion in spending cuts the Democrats reportedly accepted in the negotiations led by Vice President Biden. If the Democrats still won’t sign on to an acceptable agreement when that temporary debt-limit increase runs out, Republican leaders can pass another small increase with still more of these spending cuts attached. And if Democrats still don’t agree when that temporary debt-limit increase runs out, Republicans can pass temporary increases with spending cuts attached again . . . and again . . . and again. Democrats will cry foul, but in the end, the Democrat-controlled Senate will pass, and President Obama will sign, every temporary increase the House approves — because the alternative is unthinkable. The message from Speaker John Boehner should be: The GOP will not allow the government to default — but Republicans will not raise the debt limit without deep cuts in federal spending. And Republicans will not raise taxes or hollow out our military — period. 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