Politics Updates tgfl lab

South Korea Neg

Christina Y. Lin 2010 (Lin, Christina Y. Dr. Christina Y. Lin is currently a Visiting Fellow at AICGS and Researcher for Jane's Information Group. Previously she served in the U.S. government with tours at the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, State Department, U.S. Eximbank, and at the federally funded Institute for Defense Analyses. Prior to entering government service she worked in the private sector at Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs in London.She is a graduate of University of California, Irvine (B.A.), SAIS-Johns Hopkins University (M.A.), and London School of Economics (M.Sc., Ph.D.) with a thesis focusing on U.S. defense industrial policy. She speaks Taiwanese, Mandarin Chinese, and some French..CHINA, IRAN, AND NORTH KOREA: A TRIANGULAR STRATEGIC ALLIANCE By Christina Y. Lin. 59-60. http://www.gloria-center.org/files/2010040754323.pdf.)

A 2006 article by Shen Dingli, executive director of both the International Studies Institute and the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, laid out the strategic significance of DPRK in China’s policy towards the United States. China’s main goals are economic development and national reunification. To the latter end, he argued that

DPRK is a key buffer zone between China and U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, and it is also tied to China’s Taiwan contingency.71 With a shared border of 1,400 kilometers, DPRK acts as a guard post for China against U.S. troops in South Korea, thereby allowing China to redeploy military assets away from northeast Asia towards Taiwan. He further argues that a nuclear DPRK is an asset to China’s security because a nuclear DPRK could pin down U.S. forces in a Taiwan contingency and deter U.S. consideration of possible military intervention.72 In this case, a nuclear DPRK makes war on the peninsula less likely, since the United States would be wary of risking its troops in South Korea and Japan. He conceded that DPRK used the six-party talks to buy time to develop nuclear weapons. Chances are slim for denuclearization because DPRK’s end goal is to possess nuclear weapons due to its perceived threat by the United States.73 Indeed, China’s actions have supported this line of thought, as it has persistently watered down UNSC sanctions against DPRK and supported DPRK economically so that sanctions were not very effective. China recently announced it would invest $10 billion in DPRK, which is about 70 percent of DPRK’s total GDP of some $15 billion.74 Given China’s de facto support of a nuclear DPRK and de jure economic support to prop up the regime, it seems unlikely DPRK would take the path of denuclearization similar to the one taken by Libya. Indeed, DPRK does not see itself as a Libya in eventual denuclearization but rather conveyed to U.S. officials that it aspired to be the “Israel of East Asia.”75

Japan Rearm Impact

A nuclearized Japan would be a larger threat than North Korea

Christopher Preble. October 22, 2006 (Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and author of Two Normal Countries: Rethinking the US-Japan Strategic Relationship. Japan's Next Move by Christopher Preble. October 22, 2006. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6738.)

If Mr. Abe – or a successor – reneges on this pledge, however, and Japan decides to develop its own nuclear deterrent, it will be only the last in a series of steps in which the Japanese have enhanced their defensive posture. This rearmament has been driven primarily by fears of North Korea. While China and South Korea worry about the ramifications of a collapse of Mr. Kim's regime, they are even more fearful of a nuclear-armed Japan. Accordingly, the best way to forestall such an eventuality is to cooperate with Tokyo in eliminating the North Korean threat.

Japan Neg

Japanese military presence key to advanced US military capabilities, natural disaster support and regional hegemony

Flournoy 7/16/10 (Michele Flournoy, under Secretary of Defense for Policy of the United States, appointed President of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Prior to co-founding CNAS, she was a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Previously, she was a distinguished research professor at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU), “POINT OF VIEW/ Michele Flournoy: U.S.-Japan alliance a cornerstone in a complex world,” July 16, asahi - http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201007150534.html) Luke

As President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Naoto Kan recently affirmed at the Group of 20 summit in Toronto, the U.S.-Japan alliance continues to be indispensable not only for the defense of Japan, but also for the peace and prosperity of the entire Asia-Pacific region. The positive value of the U.S.-Japan alliance is not lost on other countries in the region; the enduring presence of U.S. forces in Japan is the bedrock for prosperity in the region. The continued U.S. presence provides deterrence against acts of aggression and reassures other nations in the region. This presence, and the benefits it provides, is supported by significant Japanese financial contributions. This financial support is essential to the ability of the United States to maintain some of the most advanced military capabilities in the world in Japan. Japan's contribution also supports the U.S. service members prepared to risk their lives in defense of Japan and peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition to providing deterrence in a still uncertain region, the presence of U.S. forces allows the United States and Japan to respond to humanitarian and natural disasters and to save lives. With close logistics and operational support from Japan, U.S. forces quickly responded to crises such as the 2009 typhoons in the Philippines, the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma (Myanmar) and the 2007 Cyclone Sidra in Bangladesh. Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are increasingly deploying alongside their American partners to address humanitarian challenges in the region, as they did in responding to the 2004 tsunami. For example, earlier this year, Japan deployed the SDF via U.S. mainland bases to provide critical relief to Haiti following that devastating earthquake. The U.S. Navy and Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) have conducted humanitarian civil assistance activities in Cambodia and Vietnam as part of the PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP 2010 operation. Going forward, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief cooperation will provide countless opportunities for the U.S.-Japan alliance to contribute to the welfare of the region and the world. The United States and Japan also cooperate closely to ensure that every nation has the right to freedom of navigation and access to open sea lanes, thereby providing for the safety of mariners and the security of trade in and out of the region. The JMSDF and the U.S. Navy work hand-in-hand to respond to the recent proliferation of pirate attacks on shipping in and around vital sea lanes, especially off the Horn of Africa. Japan and the United States are partnering to contribute significant resources to building peace and stability in some of the most war-torn places in the world. For example, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, we are cooperating to implement reconstruction and stabilization measures. Over the next 50 years, the United States and Japan look forward to deepening our level of cooperation on other issues as well, particularly in the area of regional missile defense.

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