Post globalisation era in greater mumbai june 2006 efi – solar foundation mumbai

Table: 13.8.1

The retail sector is mainly dominated by unorganised segment, and the definition of the segment would have a direct bearing on the projections. Hence, to avoid ambiguity, prior to undertaking employment projections for Retail (Shop) sector in Mumbai, we are defining the organised and unorganised sector as follows:

AT Kearney has projected the retail sector in the country to be approximately Rs. 8,00,000 crore in 2005, while FICCI has estimated the total retail business at Rs. 11,00,000 crore or 44 per cent of the GDP.

• 
  11 outlets for every 1,000 people (in India)
  
• 
  16 outlets for every 1,000 people (urban India)
  

As per the Census 2001, the total population of Greater Mumbai in 2001 was 16,300,000. Going by the given ratio of 16 outlets for every 1000 people, we have arrived at the conclusion that the total number of outlets (organised & unorganised) in Mumbai in 2001 was 2,60,800.

• 
  According to Shoppers’ Stop, the organised sector has grown at an annual rate of 35-38 per cent over the last five years.
  
• 
  Sahakari Bhandar has estimated that the retail sector in the city has grown at a rate of 25 per cent over the last five years.
  
• 
  Hilton has pegged the growth of retailing sector at approximately 30-35 per cent during the last 10 years.
  

Backed by these research findings, and based on the views of industry experts, we have assumed that the growth in the number of retail outlets in Mumbai between 2001 and 2005 was 15 per cent for the organised sector and 10 per cent for the unorganised sector. Thus, the estimated retail outlets in Mumbai in 2005 as follow:

• 
  Shoppers’ Stop has projected the growth in employment at approximately 40 per cent per annum over the next five years.
  
• 
  Hilton has projected growth in employment at approximately 15 per cent p.a. over the next five years.
  
• 
  Shakari Bhandar is optimistic of an average growth of 10 per cent every year over the next five years.
  
• 
  K. Dinesh & Co. has pegged the growth in employment at approximately 10-15 per cent over the next five years.
  

Based on the above assumptions, we have put the growth in employment over the next five years at a conservative 10 per cent p.a. and have made the following projections:

Based on the above calculations we have projected direct employment in the city for 2010 will be 42.85 lakh employees. As for indirect employment in the sector, we find that they would be created largely in the area of housekeeping, maintenance, transportation, courier, printing, packaging, etc. and it would be difficult to map the exact figures for 2010.

• 
  Just as IT, marketing and trading dominated economic activities during the last decade, the retail sector would spearhead growth of economy over the next five years. The rate at which malls and stores are springing-up across the country is an apt indication of the enormity of retail revolution.
  
• 
  Over the last few years, the sector has witnessed evolution of several new retailing models and concepts, which in turn are posing stiff challenges to conventional players. Despite challenges it is certain that conventional retail shops will continue to exist despite the threat from malls and big stores.
  
• 
  Government’s decision of allowing FDI into retailing sector has already resulted into a mall revolution in metro cities like Mumbai.
  
• 
  A decade ago, not many people were attracted to the retailing sector as it was considered low paying and largely unorganised. But of late, it claims that the sector has undergone immense transformation in terms of services standard, employee training, remuneration, job profile, etc.
  
• 
  Earlier, retail stores recruited individuals with SSC and HSC qualification, but now the basic requirement is graduation with specialisation in business areas like sales, accounts, administration, merchandising, shop floor management, etc. The sector is attracting the best talent in the city.
  
• 
  On the whole, the retail sector is witnessing creation of several jobs in both skilled and unskilled segment. But, increased use of computers by retail stores to improve response time is expected to drastically cut manpower requirements.
  
• 
  Introduction of IT/automation has lowered the dependence on people drastically. Moreover, it has helped increase accuracy, improve customer response time, streamline logistics, manage store shelf, track customer behaviour, etc.
  
• 
  Emergence of large malls and big stores is forcing family-run stores to undergo a complete makeover. Several small stores have changed to the extent of introducing systems like bar coding and off-the-shelf shopping. As far as employment is concerned, these shops have cut their employee strength.
  
• 
  Increased competition is likely to have a direct bearing on profit margins, which in turn would force retail outlets to check on their overheads. Most family owned businesses and co-operative societies are likely to be at the receiving end as they lack financial muscle.
  
• 
  In the near future, more and more institutes are expected to offer retailing courses with a wide range of specialisations - merchandising, customer service, client management, shop managers, etc., thereby leading to a phenomenal increase in the availability of skilled personnel.
  

• 
  The government’s decision of allowing FDI into retailing sector has resulted into a mall revolution in Mumbai, thus creating several newer job opportunities. The pace of the revolution could be further accelerated by providing requisite regulatory support and fiscal benefits to investors.
  

• 
  In the unorganized sector, the growth in employment would be directly influenced by family owned businesses, and they are likely to face stiff competition from large format stores and malls in the near future. Attempts could be made towards providing requisite training to family-run-businesses on how to cope up with competition to adapt to transition.
  

• 
  The sector has witnessed a gradual transformation in work force from unskilled to skilled courtesy retail training institutions mushrooming across the city. However, the quality of training provided by most of these institutions had been a matter of concern, and appropriate steps should be taken to regulate the courses.
  

• 
  Retail stores are gradually switching over from manual to mechanisation of business processes, thereby creating the need for technology orientation of existing staff and recruitment of technology savvy personnel. Presently, only a handful of training institutions have access to state-of-the-art retailing technology, and are capable of meeting future manpower needs in the sector.
  

• 
  The projected growth of retailing sector is estimated at approximately 10-times over the next five years in Mumbai. The existing retail training infrastructure in the city is not geared to meet future expectations of trained and skilled manpower, thus necessitating the creation of quality training institutions. In the near future, survival of the sector to a great extent would depend on investment in training and development of manpower.
  

• 
  Management colleges and retail training institutes would continue to be the fountainhead for qualified and trained personnel for the next few years, and a closer interaction between training institutes and retail sector would be beneficial for the two.
  

• 
  The future belongs to specialised people like designers, merchandisers, shop-floor managers… and the sector requires people with thorough understanding in these areas. Existing training institute should be encouraged to launch dedicated courses in various specializations.
  

• 
  The sector has the potential of creating employment opportunities for SSC pass or below and unskilled individuals at the backend in areas like packaging, loading/unloading, data entry, labeling, etc. There is also a huge scope for indirect employment and outsourcing of backend activities. There is a need for creation of proper employment norms to avoid undue exploitation of individual engaged in low-end unskilled jobs.
  

CHAPTER- 14

EMPLOYMENT GENERATION IN THE AUTOMOBILE GARAGE SECTOR

14.1 AUTOMOBILE GARAGE IN MUMBAI (Over the last decade)

Macro Scenario

The growth curve of India Auto Inc. has been on an upswing for the past few years. The high growth observed since 2001-02 in automobile production continued in the first three quarters of the 2004-05. Annual growth rate was 16.0 per cent in April-December, 2004; the growth rate in 2003-04 was 15.1 percent. Consequent to liberalisation, the arrival of new and contemporary models, easy availability of finance at relatively low rate of interest and price discounts offered by the dealers and manufacturers appear to have stimulated the demand for vehicles and a strong growth of the industry.

The automobile industry grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 per cent between 1992 and 1997. With investment exceeding Rs. 50,000 crore, the turnover of the automobile industry exceeded Rs. 59,518 crore in 2002-03. Including turnover of the auto-component sector, the automotive industry’s turnover, which was above Rs. 84,000 crore in 2002-03, is estimated to have exceeded Rs.1,00,000 crore in 2003-04.
The progressive liberalisation of the norms for foreign investment and import of technology appear to have benefited the automobile sector with production of total vehicles increasing from 4.2 million in 1998-99 to 7.3 million in 2003-04. It is likely that the production of such vehicles will exceed 10 million in the next couple of years.
The fastest growth in volumes has come from commercial vehicles. Between 1998-99 and 2003-04, output of such vehicles has grown 2.8 times compared to the 2.2 times increase in passenger cars. Furthermore, two-wheeler output continues to dominate the volume statistics of the sector. In 2003-04, for every passenger car turned out by the sector, there were 7 two-wheelers produced.

Directory: reports
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reports -> Pricing Closing Price $3,578 (June 22) 52-Wk High $3,825 52-Wk Low $2,982 Market Data
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reports -> Comet Aircraft – The Worlds First Jet Airliner Fatigue Failure Background
reports -> Management and functional review ministry of transport and aviation

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