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a)      Discussion on the Site Geology

(i) The Koeberg Site lies within a Cenozoic Depocentre (Pether, et al.,2000), with the basement rocks along the coastline being at a depth of approximately 10 m below sea-level. The basement rocks can be seen to outcrop approximately 500 m to the south and 7000 m to the north of the Site. The thickness of the Cenozoic cover, depends on the surface and basement topography and varies from 10 to 50 m. This forms the Atlantis aquifer. (Bedrock contours of the Atlantis aquifer were supplied by the CSIR in Stellenbosch, October, 2000. Figure Error! No text of specified style in document. -1).

(ii) Of possible concern from a seismo-tectonic perspective, is whether this “Cenozoic Depocentre” is a fault-controlled graben and if so when did the faults last move or is Miocene crustal warping responsible for its formation. The Springfontyn Fault could be one such structure. The oldest sediments overlying the Malmesbury bedrock, and reported from the Koeberg excavation, belong to the Varswater Formation and have been assigned a Mio-Pliocene age (~5 Ma, Pether et al., op cit.). This could imply that the “Graben” was formed by faulting that took place about 5 million years ago and that the faults therefore have no associated seismic risk. The crustal warping equally has no attendant seismic risk. The faulting is discussed in section 2.3 and the crustal warping in section 2.4.

6.2.4          Structural Geology

The major regional faults consist of (i) the Saldanha-Darling-Franschhoek (ii) the Piketberg-Wellington and (iii) the Milnerton-Cape Hangklip fault zone. The Saldanha-Darling-Franschhoek fault zone trends approximately NW-SE and lies 18 km east of Koeberg and the Piketberg-Wellington trends approximately NNW-SSE and lies 55 km to the east (KSSR, 1998).

A discontinuity, approximating the postulated Milnerton-Cape Hangklip fault zone is evident on the aeromagnetic imagery. This “fault” has a NNW-SSE strike, and passes through Milnerton and extends into the sea. There is unfortunately no aeromagnetic coverage of this part of the ocean, but if the fault were to be extended seaward it would pass approximately 8 km west of Koeberg Power Station. A sub-parallel fault cuts through Springfontyn se Punt and continues NNW to cut through the Poenskop peninsula 15 km to the NNW (SeeFigure Error! No text of specified style in document. -4).

These faults comprise a complex of sub-parallel shear systems which resulted in en-echelon zones of ductile deformation, brittle failure with associated breccia zones, and en-echelon crack arrays, cataclasis and mylonitization.

The fact that these fault systems are originally of pre-Cape age is supported by evidence of intrusion of late-stage phases of the Cape Granite Suite through the fault systems which have been truncated by pre-Cape erosion prior to the deposition of the Table Mountain Group in Silurian Times (Hartnady et al., 1974).

Post-Table Mountain Group movement is apparent and rejuvenation occurred along parts of the pre-existing fault zones.

Along the Saldanha-Franschhoek fault line, a major zone of faulting appears to be present between Klipheuwel and Mamre while a 50 km long fault continues from Mamre through Darling towards Langebaan.

This Klipheuwel-Darling fault zone, approaches to within 18 km of the site and clearly represents a major discontinuity of regional extent along which large granite stocks were intruded. Broad mylonite zones testify to intense cataclastic deformation along this major fault during Precambrian and post-Cambrian times.

The southern tip of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station site is traversed by a magnetic anomaly which represents an early Cape aged fault along which a swarm of dolerite dykes was intruded. This trend of dyking is ubiquitous throughout the south western Cape and tend to occur in swarms. They clearly post-date the pre-Cape rocks and they are thought to belong to the so-called Western Province dolerites which pre-date the Jurassic Karoo dykes (Nell and Brink, 1944). The dykes have undergone various degrees of low-grade regional metamorphism and deformation – probably related to the Permo-Triassic Cape Orogeny (~240 Ma). The old fault planes are likely to have been annealed and as such are unlikely to constitute a seismic hazard.

An interpretation of a recently imaged regional aeromagnetic survey indicates that there are a large number of WSW-ENE trending faults that were previously undetected (Andersen, 1999). The reason for this is that the area is sand-covered and the detection of the faults has only been made possible by recent advances in the science of aeromagnetic image processing.

Of importance to the Koeberg site is the existence of the Springfontein Fault and the two faults straddling Springfontein se Punt (SeeFigure Error! No text of specified style in document. -4). The Springfontein Fault, which lies approximately 7 km to the north of Koeberg, is probably of a composite en echelon nature and strikes WSW-ENE. It can be measured in the beach outcrops but there is no expression on the aeromagnetic imagery. Several strong breccias were mapped showing randomly orientated greywacke fragments set in a coarse grained matrix of quartz and feldspar. There are also several strong E-W open fractures. This fault complex appears to control the boundary between the high basement to the north and the Cenozoic Depocentre (Atlantis Aquifer) to the south (Fig. 1). The bedrock contours indicate a difference in elevation of roughly 20 m between the northern and southern sides of the strike extension of the measured fault line. The bedrock contours were supplied by the CSIR, Stellenbosch.

a)      Discussion on the Structural Geology

(i) On a regional scale, faulting can be seen to have affected all the consolidated rocks of the region. It has however, been reasonably well established that two episodes of both compression and extension (i.e. 4 episodes) have alternated along the southern margins of Gondwana over a period of circa 600 million years since the late Precambrian. These episodes are: (a) the Pan-Gondwanean convergence circa 650±100 million years, (b) the late-Proterozoic to early Paleozoic extension circa 500±100 million years, (c) the late Paleozoic convergence circa 300±100 million years and (d) the mid to late Mesozoic extension circa 150±50 million years. Most of the faults in the South Western Cape would have been reactivated during these episodes.

(ii) Offshore surveys undertaken by Soekor north west of St Helena Bay and on the Agulhas Bank have established rifting on the continental shelf along NW trending fault zones that probably represent the seaward continuation of major fault zones identified onshore. In the offshore areas, lower Cretaceous sediments are displaced by NW and NNW trending faults. Hence the last documented movement along these faults occurred approximately 110 million years ago.

(iii) If Cretaceous faulting took place in the site area this is most likely to have occurred along old established lines of weakness such as the Klipheuwel-Darling-Saldanha fault zone. The many NNW and NE trending open fissures and tension gashes, found in the site area, may well date back to this last significant phase of brittle deformation.

(iv) The detailed geological mapping and evaluation of the bedrock exposed in the investigation for units 1 and 2 of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station showed the ubiquitous presence of fossil lamillibranch (pholad) borings that penetrate up to 20 cm into the bedrock cutting both fault and joint planes. Of special significance is that no tectonic deformation of these borings, by faulting was observed during these studies. The minimum age of the faulting can thus be determined by dating these borings. The sediments directly overlying the bedrock have been classified as belonging to the Varswater Formation which has been dated as being of Mio-Pliocene (~5 million years) age. This would confirm that the faults in the excavation have not moved in the last 5 million years and therefore pose no seismic risk.

(v) The WSW trending Springfontein Fault that appears to control the boundary between the high basement to the north and the Cenozoic Depocentre (Atlantis Aquifer) to the south is the only feature that could pose a possible seismic risk. Although the rapid change in elevation from sea-level to about 20 m above sea-level along the projected strike of this fault, is reminiscent of a fault scarp, the breccias on the beach outcrop don’t show the intense brecciation and mylonitization that would be expected of a seismically active fault.

6.2.5          Ancient Sea-Levels and Crustal Warping

a)      Reason for the Study

The late Cenozoic history of the South African coastline is related to the history of sea level fluctuations. During the Pleistocene, the sea level fluctuated in sympathy with the repeated waxing and waning of northern hemisphere ice sheets, and palaeo-graphic studies show that coastal lowlands all over the world have been subjected to periods of alternating submergence and emergence. The resulting affect on the South African coastline was the formation of Raised Beach Terraces and High Strand-lines

The reason for this study was to try and establish if there was a raised beach terrace of accurately determined age and elevation, that could be used as a time-stratigraphic marker horizon to determine if any vertical tectonic movement had taken place and when. This study was focussed on understanding crustal warping and attempting to compare beach terraces in the Koeberg area with those to the north of the Springfontyn Fault.

b)      The Marine Terraces

Several lines of evidence prompt the conclusion that the Cape west coast was probably more unstable during the Cenozoic period that the Cape south coast (Tankard et al., 1982). The continental shelf-break, east of the Agulhas Arch is at a normal depth lying between 120 and 180 m (Dingle, 1973a). West of the Agulhas Arch the nature of the shelf break is variable (Fig. 2). West of the Cape Peninsula it has an average depth of 450 m, but west of the Orange River mouth it is at a depth of 200 m (Dingle, 1973b). This variation in depth of the west coast shelf break is attributed to differential warping of the continental margin. The effect of tilting on the on-shore deposits is maximized in the Saldanha area which is furthest removed from the hinge line. Here Tertiary beach terraces, that lie 5 m above sea-level are correlated with similar terraces at the Orange River mouth that lie 35 m above sea-level (Tankard, et al., 1982).

The Agulhas Arch is a NW-SE striking antiform (Dingle, 1973a) coinciding with the NNW structural trend of Late Precambrian origin. Early Tertiary intrusive dykes follow the same structural trends (Kröner, 1973). On the farm Dikdoorn on the Groen River an intrusive melilite basalt has been dated at 38.5 million years old. In the Borgenfels area of Namibia phonolitic lavas of the Klinghardt volcanism have been dated at 35.7 million years old. Early Tertiary igneous intrusives are also encountered offshore on the Agulhas arch (Dingle and Gentle, 1972).

Tilting probably took place about an axis or ‘hinge line’ which tended to follow the NNW Precambrian structural lineament and continued from Oranjemund to the Agulhas Arch. This ‘hinge line’ has been named the Agulhas – Vredenburg Axis (de Wit, et al., 2000).

A maximum elevation of only ~35 m for the terminal Middle Miocene Prospect Hill marine gravel supports the concept of downwarping of the southern part of the south western Cape during the Miocene (~22 to 5 million years ago) (Partridge and Maud, 1987).

Since the discovery of marine diamonds on the south-western coast, considerable attention has been focussed on the distribution and age of the beach terraces with which the diamond-rich sediments were associated. Between Port Nolloth and Oranjemund, there is a rapid decrease in elevation of the terrace levels, and they have all merged at a height of 9 to 10 metres above sea-level 50 km north of Orangemund (Hallam, 1964). This is the elevation of the lower Pleistocene set of terraces in Namaqualand. There is therefore strong evidence for crustal movement to have taken place north of Oranjemund during the period Miocene- to lower Pleistocene (~5m to ~1m years ago), there is no evidence for movement in the late-Pleistocene to Holocene (~600 000 to present) (Dingle, Seisser and Newton, 1983). The convergence in the Oranjemund area can be accounted for by crustal upwarp in late Miocene and early Pliocene times (~5 million years ago), followed by a progressive subsidence to a position about 16 m below its late Miocene level by the beginning of the late Pleistocene (~ 600 000 years ago). These movements were of a greater magnitude to the north and diminish to the south.

A past high sea-level of about 6-8 m above that of the present is recorded at many places along the coast of southern Africa, south of Latitude 25° south (Hendey and Volman, 1986). It is represented by a variety of features and deposits that suggests that this sea-level event was one of the longer of the Quaternary high stands. The dating of this beach has been controversial. Corvinus (1983), assigned a Middle Pleistocene age (ca. 400 000 – 700 000 years old) and Early Pleistocene age (1.6 million to 600 000 years old) have been assigned to it or it is considered to consist of superimposed Pleistocene beaches of more than one age. Dale and McMillan (1999), don’t recognize the ‘6-8 m Beach’ but do recognize an ‘8–10 m Package’ which is extensively developed across the low-lying ground east of Saldanha town, also along the Hondeklipbaai-Kleinzee coast and north of Oranjemund on the west coast. To the south, the 8-10 m succession is preserved on the western and eastern margins of the Cape Peninsula and in the Cape Point Nature Reserve. Dale and McMillan (1999), date the ‘8-10 m Package’ as being Late Pleistocene in age (Latest Holsteinian-Earliest Saalian Forced Regressive System about 200 000 years old).

The ‘4 m Eemian Package’ (Dale and McMillan, 1999) occurs close to the present-day coastline and consists of marine calcarenite and aeolian units. The marine unit has been named the Velddrif Formation and the aeolian unit the Langebaan Formation. The unit extends as far north as Elands Bay and is also present south of the Modder River, at Koeberg Power Station, Rietvlei-Milnerton, Noordhoek beach and Swartklip on the northern shore of False Bay (Tankard, 1976; Rogers, 1980, 1983; Theron et al., 1992). It occurs on the northern shore of Saldanha Bay and the western shore of Langebaan Lagoon, where it is overlain by the late Pleistocene Langebaan Formation (Tankard, 1976; Rogers, 1983; Roberts and Berger, 1997). This constrains the age to the Eemian (117 000 years) when sea-level reached an elevation of +5 m. This age is confirmed by sea-level oxygen isotope curves at ~117 kyr (Roberts and Berger, 1997). The Velddrif Formation represents littoral sediments deposited during the Last Interglacial. It is defined on the basis of lithological, palaeontological and temporal criteria and is limited to a maximum storm beach height of ~7 m amsl.

Figure Error! No text of specified style in document.‑5: Locality map showing the tilt axis and shelf-break

The Late Quaternary period covers a full glacial cycle from the Last Interglacial at about 120 000 years ago, through the Last Glacial Maximum 17 000 – 16 000 years ago, to the present interglacial conditions. The local sea-level curve has a Late Pleistocene minimum of ca. –130 m at about 17 000 years ago, to a mid-Holocene maximum of ca. +2 m about 5 000 years ago (Miller, D.E., 1990). Evidence for elevated sea-levels of about +2 m around 5 000 years ago have been described from numerous localities, including southern Namibia, Verlorenvlei, Langebaan Lagoon, the southern Cape estuaries and the open coast, including Knysna (Marker and Miller, 1993).

(i) The Cape west coast was probably more unstable during the Cenozoic period than the Cape south coast. The continental shelf break varies in depth from a normal 120 to 180 m east of Cape Agulhas to 450 m off the Cape Peninsula and to 200 m of the Orange River mouth. The tilting effect is also noted in the Tertiary beach terraces that are downwarped from 35 m above sea-level at the Orange River mouth to 5 m above sea-level at Saldanha bay. This axis of tilting has been named the Saldanha-Vredenberg Axis.

(ii) The diamondiferous beach terraces north of Oranjemund have converged as a result of both upward and downward crustal movement that possible ceased in the Late Pleistocene (~600 000 years ago).

(iii) The 6-8 m sea-level stand, which is recognized around the coastline of South Africa, has a controversial age which ranges from Early to Late Pleistocene (~1.2 million years to ~600 000 years old). A possible equivalent of this terrace (the 8-10 m package) is dated at 200 000 years old. The consistent distribution of this sea-level stand possibly indicates that tectonic movement of the Cape west coast had ceased by the Latest Holsteinian-Earliest Saalian Forced Regressive System. About 200 000 years ago.

(iv) The Eemian global sea-level highstand attained a maximum elevation of ~5 m above present mean sea-level at about 120 000 years before present, leaving wave-cut terraces and beach deposits that may or may not be overlain by aeolianites. This unit is called the ‘4-6m Package’, with the 4-6 m range referring to the lower and upper limits of the marine terrace. The marine and aeolian parts of the package are called the Velddrif and Langebaan Formations respectively.

An attempt was made to locate the 4-6 m Package, just to the north of the Koeberg Power Station, in order to correlate the elevation with the 4-6 m Package at Langebaan. Deviations from the classic elevation above sea-level of the marine unit would then imply neotectonic activity, in the vertical sense, on the Springfontyn Fault, subsequent to its deposition some 120 000 years ago (Eemian).

The attempt failed as it was not possible to detect the marine unit from the drill core samples. The Langebaan Formation has been recorded in excavations on the Koeberg Site as well at many other locations both to the north and south of Koeberg (see 2.4.1 above). The elevation of the land-ward pinch-out, which would indicate the position of maximum transgression of this Formation, has not been determined at any of these sites. However at the Milnerton Lighthouse site, the top of the marine deposit is described as being 2.5 m above the level of Low Water Spring Tide (Kensley, 1985). This was the position of the Formation where it had been exposed by storm wave action and no further land-ward excavation was undertaken to determine the limit of the marine deposit the base of which may achieve higher elevations (4m).

On the strength of the above discussion it is postulated that it is unlikely that major vertical fault displacement has occurred on the Springfontyn Fault in the past 117 000 years.

(v) A Mid-Holocene (5 000 year) +2 m sea-level also left recognizable terraces and deposits throughout the south western and southern Cape coast (Langebaan to Knysna). The consistent nature of these terraces could possibly also corroborate the notion that there has been no tectonic activity since at least the Eemian.

“The present state of our knowledge of the southern African sea-level curve is inadequate for evaluating any possible regional differences in sea-level history, differences that could be revealing about short-term local tectonics.

6.3   The Seismo-tectonic Model

6.3.1          Reasons for the Study

A Seismo-tectonic Model is an attempt to set up a regional structural framework within which a Tectonic Province can be characterized by a combination of parameters such as lithology, metamorphism, age, structure and tectonic boundaries, which differ significantly from adjacent areas. The model will also include seismically active structures, if identifiable and the orientation of the neotectonic stress field. The orientation of the major fault trends also plays a role as those faults sub-parallel to the ambient neotectonic stress field could be susceptible to reactivation and will require evaluation. Faults normal to the stress field would be “locked in” and therefore inactive. The orientation of the neotectonic stress field has been assessed and is discussed in Section 3.2.

If such a model can be formulated and is sustainable, then seismic events occurring outside the boundaries of the province are very unlikely to occur within, and the seismic energy can be attenuated from the boundary of the province to the site. This is also applicable to major fault structures that by instrumental measurement are shown to be seismogenic.

Dames and Moore (1976) felt that there was reasonable justification, from a tectonic standpoint, to assume that the earthquakes in the south-western Cape area are associated with major structural discontinuities. They named the following three fault zones as being “seismically active”:

The postulated Piketberg-Bridgetown-Worcester fault zone approximately 70 km to the NE of the site.

The Saldanha-Darling-Franchhoek fault zone which at its closest approach is approximately 18 km from the site. The postulated Milnerton-Cape Hangklip fault zone which is observed not to approach closer than 8 km from the site. (The Council for Geoscience note that there is very poor direct evidence to indicate the existence of the Milnerton-Cape Hangklip fault zone, and hence are of the opinion that it poses no threat to the seismic hazard of the Koeberg NNP).

Based on these seismogenic structures, Dames and Moore (1976) then divided the area into three seismo-tectonic provinces, which are located between these structures. From west to east they are (i) the Southwestern Province, (ii) the Central Province, and (iii) the Northeastern Province. Dames and Moore (1976) postulated that while small earthquakes might be expected anywhere in the region, the larger events would be expected to be confined to the zones of major faulting.

Dames and Moore (1976), based their three seismogenic structures on historic earthquakes only, which makes the confirmation of the spatial association between these structures and the relevant events very difficult. Since the introduction of the South African National Seismological Network approximately 100 events have been recorded and located within 400 km of the Koeberg Site. Over a period of 26 years of measurement, only the events of the 23 December, 1974 (mag = 3.4) and 7 June, 1977 (mag = 5.5) show some correlation with the Piketberg-Wellington fault zone (Graham et al., 1999).

It is therefore recommended that the Dames and Moore (1976) model be modified and that it be reduced to incorporate the Peninsula Microplate only as explained below (Section 3.4). The eastern boundary of the microplate could possible coincide with the northwestern extension of the Worcester Fault although the Piketberg-Bridgetown-Worcester fault may also be an active branch of this fault. The Saldanha-Darling-Franchhoek fault zone is considered to be inactive as it is roughly at right angles to the neotectonic stress field. (See Section 3.2 below).

6.3.2          Orientation of the Neotectonic Stress Field

It was necessary to determine the orientation of the neotectonic stress field in order to support the Peninsula Microplate Model and to ascertain if any of the faults in the vicinity of the Koeberg Site could be potentially “capable” of generating a seismic event. Two approaches were adopted, (i) a study of focal mechanism analyses carried out on the Ceres, 1969 seismic event, and (ii) a study of shear-wave splitting on recent events that had good signal characteristics.

Ü        Shear Wave Splitting

A shear wave splitting analysis was carried out be the Council for Geoscience (Graham, 1999) on ten events recorded by the Elim Seismological Station.

Table Error! No text of specified style in document. -17gives the results of Particle Motion Analysis for the Elim Seismological Station. “BAZ” indicates the back-azimuth, “Angle” the polarization angle of the first – arriving shear wave in the Radial – Transverse horizontal plane and “Polarization” the geographical orientation of the first shear wave. The “quality of arrival” is given as a weight on a scale from 1 to 4.

Table Error! No text of specified style in document.‑18

Particle Motion Analysis

Ü        Focal Mechanism Analysis

Focal mechanism analyses carried out on the 29^th September, 1969 (Ceres Earthquake) indicate that the Western Branch of the Worcester Fault has a NW - SE strike and it’s movement is left-lateral strike-slip. The maximum principal stress direction that caused the event is WNW and the nodal planes are almost vertical, with the minimum principal stress being horizontal (Fairhead and Girdler, 1971; Green and McGar, 1972).

These techniques confirmed that the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress field driving the movement of the Peninsula Microplate is WNW (focal mechanisms) and ENE-WSW (62° from shear wave splitting).

a)      Conclusions with regard to the Neotectonic Stress Field

(i) The orientation of the maximum horizontal stress field driving the movement of the Peninsula Microplate is WNW (focal mechanisms) and ENE-WSW (62° from shear wave splitting).

(ii) In the light of the above results, it is therefore concluded that the major NNW- SSE trending faults (Saldaha-Darling-Franchhoek and others) are not seismogenic as their orientation is almost normal to the prevailing neotectonic stress field. However the ENE-WSW and E-W trending faults (such as the Springfontyn Fault) should be considered, in nuclear siting terms, to be potentially “capable” as they are sub-parallel to this stress field.

(iii) A fault would be considered “capable” if it had associated instrumentally recorded seismicity. However, the relocation of two historic seismic events in the vicinity of Koeberg, using modern software, shows the error ellipses to be so large that it is not possible to relate these events to any of the known faults (Kijko et al., 1999). A more extensive relocation exercise carried out by Smith (1999), commented on by Graham et al.(1999), who noted that of the approximately 100 events recorded over the past 26 years, only two show some correlation with the Piketberg-Wellington fault zone. None of the WSW-ENE trending faults described below (3.3) have any related seismicity over this time period.

(iv) The Springfontyn Fault (not recognized by the Council for Geoscience) lies within the granite intruded Peninsula Microplate. It could therefore be argued that this granite intruded plate could act as a buffer and the seismic energy release (resulting from ridge push) was more likely to take place on the eastern boundary of the Microplate rather than by moving the fault.

6.3.3          Structural Analysis, Fault Rupture Length and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Recent advances in the science of geophysical signal processing techniques have enabled higher resolution imagery to be made of older aeromagnetic surveys. In this study, the Cape Regional Aeromagnetic Survey was reprocessed and images of the Enhance Total Magnetic Intensity and the Fractal Gradient were produced. A structural-geological interpretation was then carried out on these images and numerous, previously unrecognized WSW-ENE trending faults were detected. Of importance to the Koeberg Site is the fault at Springfontyn se Punt (near Silverstroomstrand, 11 km to the north), which has a strong aeromagnetic signature; and the so-called Springfontyn Fault, which is visible in beach outcrop only and lies about 7 km to the north of Koeberg (Figure Error! No text of specified style in document. -4).

Of significance, from a nuclear site evaluation point of view, is that the strike direction of these faults is sub-parallel to the prevailing neotectonic stress field and as such they could be considered as being “capable”. Considering the orientation of the strain ellipse, derived from the shear-wave splitting study, faults lying parallel to the principal stress axis could be reactivated as normal faults, whereas those lying within 30° of this direction could be reactivated as strike-slip faults (Park, 1988).

Should these faults be reactivated, what is the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) that would be felt on site? In order to evaluate these possibilities, the regression curves of Atkinson and Boore (1997) and Toro et al.,(1997), were used which empirically relate fault rupture length to maximum theoretical PGA. It must be noted that the theoretical results relating PGA to fault rupture length are only best estimates. It is infrequent that the largest possible earthquake has occurred along a specified fault during the known history of seismicity.

Curves were then generated showing the peak ground acceleration expected on site at an epicentral distance of 7 km (Springfontyn Fault) for a range of rupture lengths (Kijko et al., 1999).

Figure Error! No text of specified style in document.‑6: A comparison of the two attenuation relationships at an epicentral distance of 7 km.

a)      Conclusions with regard to Structural Analysis, Fault Rupture Length and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

(i) The stress theory predicts that faults with a strike orientation lying close to the principal stress axis could be reactivated. This implies that the Springfontyn and other WNW trending faults are potentially capable

(ii) The Koeberg NPP has been designed for a Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) with a PGA of 0.3 g (KSSR, 1998).

(iii) When considering the PGA versus fault rupture length relationships presented in Figure Error! No text of specified style in document. -6above, a PGA of 0.3 g on site would require a fault rupture length of approximately 2.5 km (using the mean value). Field examination of the Springfontyn Fault exposure in the beach outcrops, gives no indication by way of breccia and mylonitization that recent movement of this magnitude has taken place. This fault therefore poses no threat to the Koeberg NPP.

6.3.4          The Microplate Tectonic Model

The Cape Fold Belt can be divided into three structural domains, namely the Western Branch, the Southern Branch and an intervening Syntaxial Domain. See Figure Error! No text of specified style in document. -5. The Western Branch is then subdivided into a Northern Subdomain and a Southern Subdomain.

The Southern Subdomain, within which the Koeberg Site falls, is underlain by the Precambrian Cape Granite batholith and in the Cape Peninsula by a thick succession of basal formations of the Cape Supergroup. Deformation in these cover sequences is relatively mild.

The Northern Subdomain is comprised of Late Precambrian metapelites of the Malmesbury Group which contain a distinct NW-striking fabric. The domain is characterized by open upright folds and monoclines in the Cape Supergroup which strike predominantly in a northerly direction. Slickensides developed along fold limbs are sub-horizontal demonstrating a north to NNE-transport direction.

Ransome and de Wit (1992) suggested that much of the Phanerozoic history (past 545 million years) of the Western Cape Fold Belt, is a direct consequence, not only of pre-existing Pan African basement structures but also of the formation of two semi-coherent microplates. These plates were formed by the intrusion of granitic material into a pelitic basement (Figure Error! No text of specified style in document. -7) and thereafter possibly acted as a tectonic buffer during subsequent deformation. They postulate that the largest microplate (Figure Error! No text of specified style in document. -8) underlies the Southern Subdomain of the Western Branch of the Cape Fold Belt and refer to this as the Peninsula Microplate. The second proposed microplate (called the Quoin Point Microplate) is situated within the southwestern portion of the Southern Branch of the Cape Fold Belt and extends offshore to form part of the Agulhas Arch. The Koeberg Site lies within the Peninsula Microplate.

Figure