Index
Introduction 4
The models 4
Multi-model products 7
Observations 7
Evaluation metrics 8
Forecast evaluation 9
Results 9
Preliminary conclusions 11
References 12
Appendix A: AERONET stations used in the evaluation 14
Appendix B: Map of AERONET stations 15
The Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) is a project of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with the mission to enhance the ability of countries to deliver timely and quality sand and dust storm forecasts, observations, information and knowledge to end users. The Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe (hereafter RC NAMEE or RC), hosted by the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), supports a network of research and operational partners implementing the objectives of the SDS-WAS program in the region.
The models
The exchange of forecast model products is recognized as a core part of the WMO SDS-WAS Science and Implementation Plan 2011-2015, as a key contribution to the RC NAMEE and as a basis for the model inter-comparison and evaluation.
The models that currently are providing daily dust forecasts and their corresponding model configurations are described in the SDS-WAS Model Inter-comparison and Evaluation of Dust Forecasts Document.
The area of interest is bounded by the following coordinates: latitude 25°W to 60°E and longitude 0° to 65°N (see a map in figure 1). It is called the Reference Area (RA) and is intended to cover the main source areas in Northern Africa and Middle East, as well as the main transport routes and deposition zones from the equator to the tip of the Scandinavian Peninsula.
Figure 1. Reference Area
The exchange of dust model products involves forecasts of dust surface concentration and dust optical depth at 550 nm with lead times up to 72 h, based on 00 UTC or 12 UTC runs. The output frequency is of 3 hours. The products shall be daily available, ready for download by the RC team.
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