Though the findings of this report conclude that the number of individual runway facilities in existence today are adequate capacity-wise for the traffic they are serving, one could argue that this does not address the issue of airport distribution. If one analyzed population centers throughout Africa, grew the populations in these centers at predicted rates, and assigned a minimum runway length per population center according to its size, the needs for future investments in new runways and airports would grow significantly. The assumption is binary in that each population center would be assigned a local airport according to its size, regardless of the expected frequency of flights either in or out of the airport. Using this type of modeling, assuming a base line of the current distribution of airports being adequate, it can be determined that, at an urban population growth rate of 4 percent, the annual investments needed in the sector between 2005 and 2015 are close to US$ 800 million for Sub-Sharan Africa. In the model applied for this calculation, 2 cases are presented: a “base case” that shows the amount that would need to be spent to address the needs as expressed in the model in their entirety, and a “pragmatic” case that tries to incorporate what realistically may be more achievable. The results of this model are shown in table 2.5 below.
Table 2.5 Estimated annual investment needs in US$ millions in runways and terminals in Sub-Saharan Africa for the 10 years between 2005 and 2015. The model assumes an urban growth rate of 4 percent.
|
Item
|
Base Case
|
Pragmatic Cast
|
Runways
|
Improvements
|
25.3
|
25.3
|
Upgrade
|
22.5
|
22.5
|
New
|
12.2
|
12.2
|
Maintenance
|
61.2
|
49.9
|
Runways Total
|
121.2
|
109.9
|
Terminals
|
Improvements
|
5
|
6.2
|
Upgrade
|
-
|
-
|
New
|
18.0
|
9.1
|
Maintenance
|
653.8
|
102.6
|
Terminals Total
|
676.8
|
117.9
|
|
Grand Total
|
798.0
|
227.8
|
|
Source: Carruthers and Brinceno-Garmendia.
| Airport charges and finance
A sample of airport charges, graphically shown in figure 2.4, shows wide variance, with particular high charges overall in Cameroun, Ghana, and Cote d’Ivoire. Airport charges for Frankfurt am Main International Airport were collected separately for the same aircraft using FraPort’s online Airport Charges calculator15 – the average of the charges in the table below is between 30 to 40% higher than FraPort’s charges. After adjusting for outliers (Cameroun, Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana), the charges averaged to 29% higher. It must be cautioned, though, that somewhat higher charges are to be expected, since other revenue streams existing in developed countries are not available to almost all sub-Saharan countries. In the United States, concessions such as car rental stands are one of the most important sources of revenues for airport authorities. Since these opportunities do not exist to the same extent in Africa, revenues are highly dependent on airside and passenger charges. Also, the overall discrepancy Fraport’s charges increase dramaticall ywith aircraft size, suggesting that intercontinental travelers are charged more, perhaps because these flights are seen as a source of foreign currency revenues.
Anecdotal evidence is now appearing from two countries in West Africa charging much higher passenger fees, in the $80 and above per passenger range. In one country these charges are imposed to finance a new airport. As mentioned earlier, though, the building of new airports is much more expensive than the expansion of current capacity through runway and taxiway improvements, and in many cases is ill-advised and unnecessary. Evidence for Africa now suggests that at current traffic levels the supply of runways and airports is more than adequate, though their condition may be questionable.
Figure 2.4 Airport charges overall by aircraft type for 18 sample airports. FraPort’s charges for the Frankfurt am Main airport can be found at the right end. On average, the sample airports exhibited charges of 30 – 40% higher than those sampled at FraPort for same type aircraft.
|
|
Source: Analysis based on data found in Analyse Economique et Financière des Capacités de Développement des Aéroports du Mali,adpi Architectes & Ingénieurs, October 2008, p. 21, and FraPort.
|
Table 2.5 Planned and started investments exceeding US$ 500 million n Africa, as of December 2007. )
Location
|
Project
|
US$ (bil)
|
South Africa
|
Johannesburg
|
World Cup 2010, A380 preparation
|
1.180
|
South Africa
|
Durban
|
Completely new airport by 2010
|
0.932
|
Sudan
|
Khartoum
|
Completely new airport planned
|
0.750
|
Senegal
|
Dakar
|
Rehabilitation or new airport
|
0.580
|
Egypt
|
Cairo
|
Terminal 3, third runway
|
0.554
|
Tunisia
|
Enfindha
|
completely new airport for 7 million annual pax
|
0.500
|
|
|
Total for Africa
|
4.496
|
|
|
Source: Airports Council International, ACI Airport Economics Survey 2007, p. 42.
|
Table 2.6 Worldwide planned and started investments exceeding US$ 500 million, as of December 2007. Africa only has a one percent portion of larger airport investments.
|
Region
|
Planned or started (US$ bil.)
|
Percentage
|
Europe
|
79.835
|
20%
|
Middle East
|
39.000
|
10%
|
North America
|
139.724
|
36%
|
LAC
|
7.706
|
2%
|
Africa
|
4.496
|
1%
|
AsiaPacific
|
119.401
|
31%
|
Total
|
390.162
|
|
|
Source: ICAO.
|
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