Report No. 94474-pk fiscal Disaster Risk Assessment Options for Consideration
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- Table 1. Options for a national disaster risk financing strategy in Pakistan.
- The implementation of a national disaster risk financing strategy would require significant institutional capacity building
Executive SummaryThe objective of the report is to raise awareness as to the financial impacts that natural disasters have on the budget of the Government of Pakistan (GoP), and to form the basis for a continued dialogue between the GoP and the World Bank on the potential development of a strategy for financing disaster losses. The study presents a series of complementary options for development of a national disaster risk financing strategy, based on a preliminary fiscal risk analysis and a preliminary review of the current budget management of natural disasters in Pakistan. The recommendations provided in this document are therefore a starting point for a collaborative discussion with the Government of Pakistan on the potential development of a broad DRFI program that would equip the Ministry of Finance with additional instruments to manage the contingent liability posed by disasters. This report follows a request from the Government for advisory services from the World Bank in the areas of disaster risk identification and the resulting fiscal impacts on the state. This study presents options for a national disaster risk financing strategy for Pakistan, drawing significantly from international experience. It benefits from the international experience of the World Bank, which has provided assistance to several countries on the design and implementation of sovereign disaster risk financing strategies (e.g. México, Colombia, Peru, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines and the Caribbean island states) and property catastrophe risk insurance programs (e.g. in Turkey, Romania and Eastern Europe). This experience is necessarily tailored to the institutional, social and economic characteristics of Pakistan, as well as the availability of relevant data. On average, approximately 3 million people are affected by natural catastrophes each year in Pakistan, which equates to approximately 1.6 percent of the total population. According to an analysis of historical natural disaster data, since 1973 approximately 77 percent of the all the people affected by natural disasters were impacted by flooding events. Pakistan faces a major financing challenge arising from natural catastrophes, with flooding causing an estimated annual economic impact of between 3 and 4 percent of the Federal Budget1. Preliminary analysis in this report estimates the annual economic impact of flooding at between US$ 1.2 billion and US$ 1.8 billion, equivalent to between 0.5 percent and 0.8 percent of national GDP2; however simulations show that a major flood event (occurring, on average, once every 100 years) could cause losses in excess of US$ 15.5 billion3, which equates to around 7 percent of national GDP4, equivalent to almost 40 percent of the Federal Budget. To consider in terms of annual probability, there is a one percent chance in any year that a major event of this size will occur. While the Government tries to meet the needs arising from the aftermath of natural disasters, the funding gaps especially for reconstruction of affected infrastructure lead to its deterioration especially the protective capacity resulting in additional losses in proceeding disaster events. Although progress has been made on the establishment of financing mechanisms for dealing with disaster losses, significant work still remains to operationalize structures and to ensure that financing mechanisms are appropriately provisioned. A structure for dedicated federal and provincial funds for disaster risk management has been established under the National Disaster Management Act 2010. However, challenges still remain with respect to operationalization of the funds, and standardization of procedures across provinces. It remains very difficult for the GoP to analyze the financing needs and gaps for meeting relief, recovery and rehabilitation support to the affected portion of the population. The heavily de-centralized approach to disaster risk financing in the provinces is a key contributor to these challenges. The mechanisms through which disasters are financed vary from province to province, depending on the administrative systems in place and the ready availability of funds. There is a need for a sustainable plan to ensure that the NDMF and provincial funds are adequately provisioned in the context of likely needs. While the federal and provincial governments recognize the need for allocating resources in their budgets for disaster response prior to a disaster, they lack the technical basis to determine such allocations. At present post-disaster expenditures are financed from contingent and supplementary budgets during the relief and recovery phases and from the annual Public Sector Development Program during the reconstruction phase. The inaccessibility of data on the underlying hazards and their past and possible future financial implications is one barrier to the process of informed ex-ante provisioning of funds. A development of technical capacity and necessary tools to quantify likely needs for disaster-related expenditure would help the government to both: (i) determine appropriate allocations through the budget; and (ii) to also explore and make informed proposals for possible sources of financing outside of the budget. This study presents the GoP with a series of options for consideration that could help the government increase its immediate financial response capacity against natural disasters and better protect its fiscal balance. Specifically, there are seven options for consideration spread across the short-, medium- and long-term; these options are listed in Table 1. These options follow the operational framework of: (i) assess risk; (ii) arrange financial solutions; and (ii) deliver funds to beneficiaries. Table 1. Options for a national disaster risk financing strategy in Pakistan.
The implementation of a national disaster risk financing strategy would require significant institutional capacity building, and further work to quantify likely needs for disaster-related expenditure. Disaster risk financing is just one component of a comprehensive fiscal risk management strategy, which requires specific financial and actuarial expertise. Major capacity building on disaster risk assessment and international best practice in financial management of natural disasters would be required for the development and use of financial tools to guide the GoP in its national disaster risk financing strategy. Directory: curated curated -> Concept stage curated -> Concept stage curated -> Republic of Côte d'Ivoire Urbanization Review curated -> Report No: aus11011 Central America curated -> Environmental and Social Management Framework for the Costa Rica Telecommunications Sector Modernization Project curated -> Environment Impact Assessment For Jiangxi Shangrao Sanqingshan Airport Beijing Guohuantiandi Environmental Technology Development Center. Ltd. Oct. 2012 Content curated -> Growth through Innovation An Industrial Strategy for Shanghai By Shahid Yusuf Kaoru Nabeshima April 22nd, 2009 curated -> Report No: 70178. People's Republic of China curated -> Making Nutrition Policy Central to Development Understanding the Political and Institutional Conditions for Policy Change Case Study of the Political Economy of Nutrition Policies in Ethiopia Prepared By Download 0.6 Mb. Share with your friends:
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