Demand Supply Gap for Petroleum Products

Demand Supply Gap for Petroleum Products

1. 
   The demand of petroleum products considered is as given by Sub-Group on demand estimation. The total demand for the XI and XII Plan period is as given below.
   

MMT
Case	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2016-17
Base	116.1	119.1	122.0	127.0	131.8	160.2
Upper	117.6	122.0	127.8	136.6	141.8	179.3

2. 
   For estimating the petroleum product availability, the data obtained from various refineries have been taken into consideration. Product availability estimated (including non-refinery sources⁸) is as under:
   

Table 8.7: Petroleum Product availability during XI Plan MMT
Product	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
LPG	9.1	9.7	9.3	11.0	12.8
Naphtha	15.0	14.8	15.0	17.5	18.8
MS	13.7	17.5	27.7	28.9	30.5
ATF	6.8	7.4	9.3	10.6	11.0
SKO	10.6	11.3	10.7	10.3	11.3
HSD	58.0	62.6	74.5	84.1	92.3
LDO	1.0	1.0	0.8	0.8	0.6
LOBS	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.1
FO/LSHS	14.8	15.6	15.6	10.9	9.5
Bitumen	3.7	3.9	4.0	4.0	4.4
Coke	4.1	5.4	8.3	11.0	12.8
Others	5.6	6.5	9.6	11.0	13.2
Total__143.3__156.4__185.6'>Total	143.3	156.4	185.6	201.1	218.3

3. 
   Projections indicate that domestic production of petroleum products would exceed the upper case demand of the XII Plan by end of XI plan itself by a large margin. By the end of XII Plan production of petroleum products is slated to increase to 286 MMT.
   

4. 
   Based on the product availability and demand estimates as given above the product-wise surplus/ (deficit) situation has been estimated and given below.
   

Table 8.8: Petroleum Product surplus/(deficit) during XI Plan (MMT)
Base Case
Product	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
LPG	(1.73)	(1.55)	(2.42)	(1.20)	(0.01)
Naphtha	4.61	5.28	4.52	6.33	7.23
MS	4.37	7.65	17.43	18.26	19.42
ATF	2.47	2.63	4.15	5.01	5.13
SKO	1.76	2.80	2.47	2.36	3.59
HSD	15.87	18.82	29.18	37.19	43.92
LDO	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LOBS	(1.63)	(1.72)	(1.70)	(1.48)	(1.52)
FO/LSHS	1.17	1.63	2.76	(2.40)	(4.38)
Bitumen	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.17)	(0.41)	(0.23)
Coke	(0.66)	0.67	3.59	5.79	7.11
Others	0.71	1.16	3.80	4.64	6.29
Total	26.88	37.32	63.60	74.08	86.54

Table 8.8: Petroleum Product surplus/(deficit) during XI Plan (MMT)
Upper Case
Product	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
LPG	(1.73)	(1.55)	(2.42)	(1.20)	(0.01)
Naphtha	5.70	5.02	4.52	6.27	7.22
MS	3.67	7.96	17.23	17.79	18.93
ATF	2.45	2.17	3.32	3.96	3.76
SKO	1.18	1.90	1.28	0.91	1.90
HSD	15.71	18.80	28.75	36.11	42.56
LDO	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LOBS	(1.63)	(1.72)	(1.70)	(1.48)	(1.52)
FO/LSHS	1.01	1.34	1.96	(3.35)	(5.48)
Bitumen	(0.10)	(0.13)	(0.29)	(0.58)	(0.45)
Coke	(0.66)	0.67	3.59	3.79	5.43
Others	0.16	(0.00)	1.56	2.24	4.19
Total	25.76	34.46	57.80	64.46	76.52

1. 
   While estimating surplus/deficit scenario it is assumed that MS would be sold throughout the country blended with 5 percent ethanol from 2007-08.
   
2. 
   The refineries need to maximize production of LPG, LOBS and bitumen to an extent, from the national standpoint. Further caution needs to be exercised while converting bottoms to higher end products as large deficits in industrial fuels is projected. The bottom upgradation plan needs to be realigned to local demand. Even globally, as noted elsewhere in the report, large deficit is predicted for FO and LSHS.
   
3. 
   In addition the refineries must consider the change in refinery gate price to trade parity for MS and HSD. The ratio of import parity and export parity will undergo a change every year depending upon the past experience. If ratio of exports increases then, domestic realization for MS and HSD will fall accordingly. Refinery projects require factoring the above conclusions.
   
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