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A2: IKC – Inequality Kuznet’s Curve
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- A2: EKC – Enviroment Kuznet’s Curve
A2: IKC – Inequality Kuznet’s CurveKuznet’s methodology is bad. It’s founded on speculation, relied on a small data set, and is tainted with wishful thinking.Gallup 12 – has a PhD in Economics, University of California; MA in Demography, University of California; BA in Economics and Political Science, Swarthmore College, High Honors [John. “Is There a Kuznets Curve?”. 8/25/12. http://www.pdx.edu/econ/sites/www.pdx.edu.econ/files/kuznets_complete.pdf.]//jwang Kuznets’ hypothesis about the relationship between inequality and economic growth in his 1955 address was based on time-series data for just three countries and his intuition about the mechanisms of economic development. His conjecture was audacious given the data he had to work with. He acknowledged this, saying that his “paper is perhaps 5 per cent empirical information and 95 per cent speculation, some of it possibly tainted by wishful thinking” (Kuznets, 1955, p. 26). New international panel data with the first internally consistent time series for a large number of countries shows no evidence of a Kuznets curve.Gallup 12 – has a PhD in Economics, University of California; MA in Demography, University of California; BA in Economics and Political Science, Swarthmore College, High Honors [John. “Is There a Kuznets Curve?”. 8/25/12. http://www.pdx.edu/econ/sites/www.pdx.edu.econ/files/kuznets_complete.pdf.]//jwang Kuznets used data he helped collect for the United States combined with data for the United Kingdom and two states in Germany. He also found point estimates of inequality in India, Puerto Rico, and Ceylon. Figure 1 presents the inequality data from Kuznets's original article combined with historical estimates of GDP per capita from Maddison (2010) to show the patterns he was visualizing. It is striking that his data do not provide much support for his own hypothesis, except that United Kingdom and United States had substantial declines in their inequality before World War II. Kuznets discusses the likelihood that inequality worsened in both of these countries in the nineteenth century before his time series start, but he had no empirical evidence for it. Besides the U.S. and the U.K, the other countries for which he has inequality estimates do not indicate an inverted-U curve. Kuznets’ presumption was that inequality is very low in agrarian societies before the advent of industrialization. Pre-modern inequality data are hard to come by, but Milanovic and others (2007) were able to reconstruct inequality data for eleven preindustrial societies ranging from the Roman Empire in AD14 to China in the 1880s. As shown in Figure 2, inequality in these agrarian societies was not particularly low. All but three of the estimates of inequality are higher than the median inequality in countries today (calculated from the data described in the next section). Half the preindustrial Gini coefficients are above the 75th percentile of modern inequality estimates, including the estimates of inequality in England and Wales in the 17th and 19th centuries. The data do not suggest that one can assume low inequality in pre-industrial societies. Feudalism didn’t promote particularly equal distribution. Kuznets showed that inequality fell in two high-income countries as they grew richer after World War I, but he had no evidence of rising inequality at low income levels. Ironically, Kuznets’ prediction that inequality will rise during the early stages of development, for which he had no evidence, is better remembered than his prediction that inequality will fall at higher incomes. One reason that Kuznets's paper had a big impact was his model explaining the path of inequality. In its simplest form, if agricultural workers all earn a low wage and industrial workers earn an identical higher wage, then the transition from agriculture to industry will create an inverted-U curve in inequality. The movement of the first workers out of agriculture into higher wage industry will increase inequality, but beyond a certain point, inequality will fall as the majority of workers receive the constant industrial wage. A vulnerability of Kuznets’s theory is that minor changes in the story change the prediction. For instance, if agricultural incomes are more unequal than industrial wages, perhaps due to unequal land ownership, movement out of agriculture into industry could reduce inequality right away. Furthermore, all kinds of other dynamics of economic development are likely to have implications for inequality besides the movement of labor out of agriculture into industry. International trade, the spread of education, and transportation linking previously isolated regions, to name just a few dynamics, are all likely to have major impacts on income distribution in ways that do not naturally suggest an inverted-U shaped curve. A2: EKC – Enviroment Kuznet’s CurveVast scientific consensus disprove the thesis of EKC and the connection between growth and the environment. In addition environmental problems are caused by economic growth.Brulle et al. 12 –Buelle: PhD, Professor of Sociology and Environmental Science, and Professor of Environmental Policy, Drexel University; Jenkins: Professor of Sociology, Mershon Center for International Security Studies, Ohio State University; Dunlap: PhD, Regents Professor of Sociology, Oklahoma State University [Robert, Craig, and Riley. “The Break Through Illusion: A Social Science Critique of Nordhaus and Shellenberger,” Forthcoming in Bill Chaloupka, Jay Odenbaugh, and Jim Proctor (eds). Post Environmentalism: Debating and Extending the Death of Environmentalism Thesis. MIT Press: Cambridge MA, http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~brullerj/SN_Critique.pdf.]// The most central problem is N&S ‘adoption of the ecological modernization thesis that economic growth and advanced technology will solve environmental problems. They trace both the rise of modern environmentalism (see below) and the long-term solution to environmental problems to economic affluence Based on the EKC thesis. The EKC has been subjected to extensive scientific analysis. The net conclusion of over a hundred empirical studies is that the EKC may apply with regard to localized pollutants, which have a direct and immediate impact on human health, but this does not hold for most pollutants, especially greenhouse gases (Dinda 2004: 448, Cavlovic et al. 2000: 40 IPPC 2007b). Cavlovic et al. (2000) suggest that the income tipping point at which CO2 might decline is $199,345/capita income, several times above the income level of any current wealthy country. In short, there is some evidence that affluence does lead to reduced air pollution and immediate and visible toxins (Vehemas et al 2007; Managi 2006) but little evidence that this holds for greenhouse gases and non-localized pollutants (Cavlovic et al. 2000; Dinda 2004; York, Rosa and Dietz 2003; but see Li 2006). The major root causes of greenhouse gases and environmental problems turn out to be economic growth and population, magnified by open trade policy and foreign investment in developing countries (York, Rosa and Dietz 2003; Dinda 2004; Jorgensen and Burns 2006; Jorgensen, Dick and Mahutga 2007). Hence, on the fundamental question of what causes global warming, N&S are wrong. Rarely does a scientific consensus speak so consistently to a political argument. Why are N&S so drawn to this perspective? Ecological modernization is appealing because it eliminates the need for zero-sum solutions. In this view, capitalism can be readily modified to be ecologically sustainable and no changes in our style of living, consumption patterns, or basic institutions are needed (Buttel 2000). This argument has obvious appeal to entrenched interests (Bernstein 2001), and to those who wish to avoid significant change, but the scientific evidence shows it to be a false hope. N&S do not bother to address the significant scientific evidence against ecological modernization theory or the assumptions on which it rests (York and Rosa 2003). A2: Trade Increases Democracy Trade only works if countries are already democratic Gelpi 2001 – political science professor at Duke (Christopher and Joseph Grieco, Economic Interdependence, the Democratic State, and the Liberal Peace, http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/bpollins/book/Gelpi&Grieco.pdf) We seek in this paper to explore a new path for analyzing democracy, interdependence, and war. Specifically, we explore the possibility that the impact of trade and democracy may be contingent upon one another. We ground this interest in the possible interaction between economic interdependence and democracy in a review of the work of Immanuel Kant and a number of modern writers on interdependence and on the domestic incentives of political leaders. We contend that this literature implies that economic interdependence may reduce the risk of war between democracies, but exacerbate the risk of such conflicts between non-democracies. Thus – along with Oneal and Russett - we suggest that the classic liberals may indeed have been right, but in a manner more complex than had been anticipated by many modern scholars. Rather than acting independently, the combined influence of democracy and interdependence may create a powerful web of constraint that reinforces the zone of peace among increasingly interdependent democracies. However, the absence of mutual democracy may vitiate the pacifying effect of economic interdependence between nations. And, free trade doesn’t increase democracy Buzzanco 2001 – professor of history, Houston (Bob, We're on 'Fast Track' to Trading Away Democracy, http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0630-01.htm) Organized secretively by national leaders and representatives of multinational corporations from all over the globe, NAFTA, WTO and now FTAA take decision-making power out of the hands of states or local communities and transfer it to faceless bureaucracies controlled by unelected corporate representatives. Under these transnational institutions, anything construed as a barrier to "free trade" can be challenged and repealed. 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