Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic and/or diplomatic engagement with the People’s Republic of China


NC/1NR AT #5—Nationalists Don’t Matter



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2NC/1NR AT #5—Nationalists Don’t Matter

They say Xi doesn’t care about the nationalists, but

[GIVE :05 SUMMARY OF OPPONENT’S SINGLE ARGUMENT]


  1. Extend our evidence.

[PUT IN YOUR AUTHOR’S NAME]

It’s much better than their evidence because:

[PUT IN THEIR AUTHOR’S NAME]

[CIRCLE ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS]:

(it’s newer) (the author is more qualified) (it has more facts)

(their evidence is not logical/contradicts itself) (history proves it to be true)

(their evidence has no facts) (Their author is biased) (it takes into account their argument)

( ) (their evidence supports our argument)

[WRITE IN YOUR OWN!]
[EXPLAIN HOW YOUR OPTION IS TRUE BELOW]

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[EXPLAIN WHY YOUR OPTION MATTERS BELOW]

and this reason matters because: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


  1. Nationalists and Xi are sensitive to foreign policy



Weiss, 2014 [Jessica Chen, associate professor of government at Cornell University, “Chinese Nationalism: The CCP's 'Double-Edged Sword'”, November 25, http://thediplomat.com/2014/11/chinese-nationalism-the-ccps-double-edged-sword/]
Going all the way back to the May Fourth protests in 1919, there’s a long history of nationalist protests targeting foreign forces and the Chinese government simultaneously. Do you see a similar bifurcation of nationalist sentiment in China today? As in the past, nationalist sentiments today often target the Chinese government for being too weak, soft, or corrupt to defend the national interest. This is one of the greatest risks that China faces in sharpening the double-edged sword of popular nationalism. It can easily wound the one who wields it. So far, the Chinese government has been able to retain the upper hand, mobilizing all levels of government to preserve social stability and promote “rational patriotism” when nationalist fervor begins to get out of hand. But the often heavy-handed orchestration of protests and propaganda fosters resentment and feelings of alienation among liberals and nationalists alike. How has the advent of social media complicated Beijing’s ability to control or at least stage manage large-scale demonstrations? The growth of the Internet and social media has made it more difficult for the Chinese government to repress nationalist demonstrations and made it easier for citizens to express views that diverge from the party line. As a senior Chinese diplomat told me, “I’m worried. Public opinion is more and more influential. There are many irrational voices.” So far, the government has been successful in restraining the scope and scale of nationalist protests, including after the 2010 collision between a Chinese fishing trawler and Japanese coast guard vessels. But the uneven curtailment of nationalist protests has made it more difficult for foreign governments to discern China’s intentions. Chinese authorities have been especially vigilant in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, so foreign observers should be cautious when drawing conclusions from a handful of cities where protests may be highly scripted or conspicuously absent. Although state propaganda is partially responsible for inflaming popular anger, there is also a grassroots component to nationalist anger in China that is often overlooked. In fact, the stage-management of protests is often intended to minimize the risk that demonstrations spin out of control or stray off-message. You point out that we haven’t seen large demonstrations in China on two subjects of great interest to nationalists: the Taiwan issue and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Why do you think these subjects are more or less “taboo” when it comes to protests? On the issue of Taiwan, the Chinese government has used other tactics to show resolve rather than risk belligerent protests that might further alienate Taiwan voters and force the Chinese government to take military action. Ever since Chinese saber rattling during the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis was judged counterproductive in Beijing, the Chinese government has tried somewhat softer tactics to dissuade Taiwan voters from supporting independence. The Chinese government prevented protests over Taiwan despite the election of Chen Shui-bian in March 2000 and his re-election and referendum on independence in March 2004. So far, the Chinese government appears to have determined that tolerating street protests over Taiwan independence is not worth the risk, particularly since political developments on Taiwan since 2008 have given China more confidence that diplomatic and economic trends are favorable. Still, foreign support for Taiwan has continued to spark nationalist anger, including an online petition against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan in 2010 that disappeared shortly after netizens called for street protests. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea are another important space to watch. So far, nationalist anger at Vietnam and the Philippines has been largely confined to the Internet in China. Even the relatively nationalist Global Times has cautioned that “indulging anger and fantasizing confrontation” is not the right way to manage disputes in the South China Sea. After Vietnamese protests against China’s deep-water oil rig escalated to violence in May 2014, killing several Chinese workers, state-run and commercial media in China were conspicuously restrained in covering the riots, emphasizing Vietnamese efforts to arrest the “troublemakers” and characterizing the violence as more anti-foreign than specifically anti-Chinese. I suspect that Chinese calls for protests against Vietnam were shut down because China already controls the Paracel Islands and has no need to show further resolve. Allowing protests against Vietnam would have added fuel to the fire of Vietnamese anger and might have provoked further attacks on Chinese citizens in Vietnam.

  1. Xi gets blamed for all mistakes—especially in a declining Chinese economy



Council on Foreign Relations, February 2016 [International, bipartisan organization, “Xi Jinping on the Global Stage Chinese Foreign Policy Under a Powerful but Exposed Leader"]
Xi is exposed precisely because he sits at the center of all decision- making and is visible to the public. He must address countless domestic challenges for which he is now explicitly accountable, and a major misstep on any of them could be costly to his political popularity and position. Without question, the largest problem looming over Xi’s tenure is China’s economic slowdown and its related manifestations, including unemployment and stock market volatility. As noted, China’s economy, which had expanded at an annual rate of 10 percent for three decades, is entering a new era of slow growth that has forced the government to reduce its growth target to a record-low 6.5 percent. Xi’s challenge is to smoothly reorient the economy toward consumption and away from exports and investment even as growth continues to fall. China’s economic woes began years before Xi entered the presidency and ow from the country’s inability to find a sustainable alternative to the growth model upon which it has long relied. That model, which catapulted the country into the ranks of great powers, was based on a simple premise: weak-productivity agricultural laborers would move into low-wage but high-productivity manufacturing jobs, producing goods for foreign markets. Nearly every component of that model has been subject to mounting strain. China has fewer agricultural workers that it can shift into industry. Its workforce peaked in 2013 and is now shrinking in size.18 Its wages often exceed those of regional competitors even as productivity growth slows.19 Finally, China’s export markets can no longer soak up its surplus production.



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