Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic and/or diplomatic engagement with the People’s Republic of China


AC Harms (North Korean War) AT #1—No Nuclear Ability/Backlash



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2AC Harms (North Korean War) AT #1—No Nuclear Ability/Backlash



They say North Korea has no nuclear abilities and if we try anything they’ll backlash, but

[GIVE :05 SUMMARY OF OPPONENT’S SINGLE ARGUMENT]



  1. Extend our International Business Times and Feng evidence.

[PUT IN YOUR AUTHOR’S NAME]

It’s much better than their Info Wars evidence because: [PUT IN THEIR AUTHOR’S NAME]

[CIRCLE ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS]:

(it’s newer) (the author is more qualified) (it has more facts)

(their evidence is not logical/contradicts itself) (history proves it to be true)

(their evidence has no facts) (Their author is biased) (it takes into account their argument)

( ) (their evidence supports our argument)



[WRITE IN YOUR OWN!]
[EXPLAIN HOW YOUR OPTION IS TRUE BELOW]

Our evidence talks about how all of the countries see North Korea. Even if they don’t have weapons, other countries are freaking out and that’s enough to cause conflict. Also, our evidence talks about multiple weapons tests that show North Korea has nuclear weapons. Finally, their evidence is talking about US sanctions and we don’t do that. Our new military and China sanction strategy will work.
[EXPLAIN WHY YOUR OPTION MATTERS BELOW]

This matters because: North Korea’s weapons are a threat and can cause a world war. We can solve that problem with our new approach.
  1. North Korea goes nuclear



The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 2015 [William Perry, organization of scientists dedicated to understanding nuclear threats, “William J. Perry on nuclear war and nuclear terrorism”, December 8, http://thebulletin.org/william-j-perry-nuclear-war-and-nuclear-terrorism8961]
North Korea. During 1990s I worked very hard for a non-nuclear North Korea. I failed, and those who followed me also failed. North Korea is now building a nuclear arsenal and has threatened to use this arsenal, engaging in outrageous and provocative rhetoric. North Korea now has an arsenal of medium-range ballistic missiles that can reach South Korea and Japan. They could develop ICBMs, which would threaten the US. My Stanford colleague Sig Hecker has proposed a “3 no's” policy (no more nuclear weapons, no better weapons, and no transfer of nuclear material). This represents a potential way forward, but has not been adopted by either President Bush or Obama. I expect more “acting out” within a few months, with long-range missile tests, probably followed by more nuclear tests to prove out the nuclear warheads for these missiles. We are not on a path to solution—our relations with North Korea continue to be a festering sore. If this dangerous situation erupts, it will very likely entail use of nuclear weapons. That is my third nuclear nightmare.
  1. Stronger nuclear weapons are being developed



Chanlett-Avery, Rinehart, and Nikitin, January 2016 [Emma, Coordinator Specialist in Asian Affairs, Ian, Analyst in Asian Affairs, Mary Beth D. Specialist in Nonproliferation, Congressional Research Service Report, “North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation”, January 15, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf]
North Korea has active nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs. The 2015 Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Worldwide Threat Assessment stated, “Because of deficiencies in their conventional military forces, North Korean leaders are focused on developing missile and WMD capabilities, particularly building nuclear weapons.”24 The sections below describe what is known from open sources about these programs; for more information, see CRS Report RL34256, North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues, by Mary Beth D. Nikitin. Nuclear U.S. analysts remain concerned about the pace and success of North Korea’s nuclear weapons development. The DNI assesses that North Korea views its nuclear capabilities as intended for “deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy.” North Korea has said that it will not get rid of its nuclear weapons until all the other nuclear weapons states do so. North Korea announced on January 6, 2016, that it successfully tested a “hydrogen bomb” (its fourth nuclear weapon test since 2006 and first since February 2013). The U.S. government confirmed that the underground explosion was a nuclear test, but a White House spokesman said that initial data was “not consistent” with North Korean claims of detonating a full-fledged thermonuclear hydrogen bomb. North Korea’s first three nuclear weapons tests were of fission devices.25 Generally, countries would test a boosted fission weapon as the next step after testing fission weapons, on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb. This type of device would be lighter in weight and smaller in size than a fission weapon with comparable yield. The U.S. intelligence community has said that the prime objective of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is to develop a nuclear warhead that is “miniaturized” or sufficiently small to be mounted on long- range ballistic missiles, but assessments of progress have differed. The official position of the DNI is that “North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile.”26 Miniaturization likely would require additional nuclear and missile tests. Perhaps the most acute near-term threat to other nations is from the medium-range Nodong missile, which could reach all of the Korean Peninsula and some of mainland Japan. Some experts assess that North Korea likely has the capability to mount a nuclear warhead on the Nodong missile.27
  1. And North Korea will sell weapons to Syria and Libya



Chanlett-Avery, Rinehart, and Nikitin, January 2016 [Emma, Coordinator Specialist in Asian Affairs, Ian, Analyst in Asian Affairs, Mary Beth D. Specialist in Nonproliferation, Congressional Research Service Report, “North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation”, January 15, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf]
Critics claim that the “strategic patience” approach has allowed Pyongyang to control the situation and steadily improve its missile and nuclear programs. North Korea has flagrantly violated UNSC resolutions with rocket launches and nuclear tests. The policy not only depends on China showing greater willingness to pressure North Korea, but it also depends on U.S. allies maintaining unity, an approach that might falter if allies take divergent approaches. The collapse of the denuclearization talks has intensified concerns about proliferation as cash-strapped North Korea may turn to other sources of income. Because of North Korea’s poor economic performance, there is a strong fear that it will sell its nuclear technology or fissile material to another country or a nonstate actor.11 Evidence of nuclear cooperation with Syria and Libya has alarmed national security experts.12


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