Review of the hurricane operational plan
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- 2. Retiring the Names of Tropical Cyclones
- 3. Impacts of Tropical Cyclones in the East Pacific and Atlantic Basins
- 4. Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones
- 5. Changes in Population and Wealth 5.1 The current global population is just under 7.5 billion persons ( http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
- 6. Proposed Criteria for Retiring Tropical Cyclone Names
- Erika
- The loss of human life and/or major infrastructural damage; Other special reasons.
1. Introduction 1.1 The history of naming tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins is long and varied. In the beginning, storms were named arbitrarily and cyclones would be named after saints, or after a place where damage occurred. 1.2 In 1953, the United States abandoned a confusing two-year old plan to name storms by a phonetic alphabet (Able, Baker, Charlie) when a new, international phonetic alphabet was introduced. That year, the United States began using female names for storms. 1.3 The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men's and women's names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2016 list will be used again in 2022. 2. Retiring the Names of Tropical Cyclones 2.1 Although the list from 2016 will be repeated in 2022, there may be changes to the list. The name of a tropical cyclone may be retired or withdrawn from the active list at the request of any Member State if that tropical cyclone acquires special notoriety because of human loss or injury, damage and other impacts (e.g. socio-economic) or other special reasons. It is through consensus opinion of the members (or the majority, if required) during the session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee immediately following that season, that the name would be withdrawn from the active list.1 3. Impacts of Tropical Cyclones in the East Pacific and Atlantic Basins 3.1 Studies have shown that there is a remarkable reduction in the deaths attributable to the passage of tropical cyclones in both the Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans. The reduction in the number of deaths is mainly attributable to two reasons, which are: The strengthening and enforcement of building codes, and The increasing skill in forecasting the track of tropical cyclones which is coupled with continually improving and timely watches and warnings. 3.2 Within both ocean basins, the number of cyclone-related deaths has steadily decreased from a high in excess of 22,000 from a cyclone in 1780, but the cost of the impacts has steadily risen. Further, the proportion of deaths associated with tropical cyclones have decreased due to strong winds and storm surges, but they have increased due to inland flooding. 3.3 The direct or indirect costs from a cyclone can be divided into a number of broad categories which include: Cost of preparedness. Cost of the warning service. Cost of damage. Cost of relief. Loss in business revenue. Losses to agriculture. 3.4 The increases in property losses are attributed to accelerated property development in coastal zones. There has also been a concentration of the population of many countries and economic activity in coastal plains and low-lying areas that are subject to storm surge and flooding. Furthermore, the rapid growth of the tourism industry over the last decade has greatly increased the insured value of the coastal properties in all countries and, associated with it, the storm related risk. 4. Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones 4.1 There is consensus among most of the climate scientists that there would be an increase in the frequency and intensity in tropical cyclones globally, but, there is no consensus on the quantum of the increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. However, the climate is changing and records show that the temperature continues to rise year on year and there has been a concomitant rise in the sea level. 5. Changes in Population and Wealth 5.1 The current global population is just under 7.5 billion persons (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/) and it is growing on average approximately 1.1% per annum. The population in RA IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) is estimated to be just over 583 million persons and growing. The increased damage associated with the passage of tropical cyclones is proportionate to the increasing population growth and increasing wealth in RA IV. The growth in the population and wealth are producing more costly homes and businesses in coastal plains and low-lying regions. 6. Proposed Criteria for Retiring Tropical Cyclone Names 6.1 Presently the criteria used for retiring tropical cyclone names in RA IV is stated in paragraph 2.1 “The name of a tropical cyclone may be retired or withdrawn from the active list at the request of any Member State if that tropical cyclone acquires special notoriety because of human loss or injury, damage and other impacts (e.g. socio-economic) or other special reasons.” 6.2 In a future world of increasing population growth, increasing wealth, rising temperatures (atmospheric, land and sea) and sea level, with the possibility of increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, there will be one or more impact which will cause a Member State to request a retirement of a name, irrespective of the strength of the cyclone at the time. This has happened in the past, such as in 2016 when a Member State requested the retirement of the name Erika from the 2015 list of Atlantic names, which was agreed to by the Committee. The replacement name Elsa will be used in 2021. 6.3 At the time of impact, Erika was a minimal tropical storm when it passed near the northern tip of Guadeloupe early on 27 August 2015 while strengthening to an intensity of 45 kt. The island of Dominica to the south received rainfall which totalled 12.62 inches (30.06 cm) in which almost all of that rainfall occurred between 0600 to 1800 UTC on 27 August. The torrential rainfall produced catastrophic flooding and mudslides over the island and there were thirty (30) deaths. There were no tropical storm watches and warnings issued for Dominica and from the data available, Dominica did not receive sustained storm-force winds, although there was a gust of 34 kt measured at the Douglas Charles Airport. 6.4 The criteria which is proposed for retiring tropical cyclone names makes use of what is the current criteria, but adds the element of the wind field. The proposed criteria are as follows: The Tropical Cyclone must be a hurricane with a sustained maximum 1-minute wind of 96 mph (154 kmh-1) or higher; The loss of human life and/or major infrastructural damage; Other special reasons. 6.5 The first two criteria must be present for the Hurricane Committee to consider a request from a Member State to retire a cyclone name due to the impacts of a tropical cyclone. __________ 
Directory: pages -> prog -> www -> tcp -> linkedfiles linkedfiles -> Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan linkedfiles -> Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan linkedfiles -> Review of the past hurricane season summary of the past season linkedfiles -> Review of the past hurricane season summary of the past season linkedfiles -> Hurricane Fay, 11-12th October linkedfiles -> World meteorological organization linkedfiles -> Cyclone programme linkedfiles -> Review of the past hurricane season linkedfiles -> World meteorological organization Download 85.62 Kb. Share with your friends:
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