Russia 110215 Basic Political Developments


Rosneft Has New Discoveries



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Rosneft Has New Discoveries


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/rosneft-has-new-discoveries/431026.html
15 February 2011

Rosneft found two deposits in East Siberia that may hold 1.17 billion barrels of oil, the company said Monday on its web site.

The Sanarsky and Lisovsky fields lie 130 kilometers and 70 kilometers to the west of Rosneft's Verkhnechonsk production venture with TNK-BP, which supplies Russia's eastbound oil pipeline. More exploration is needed to determine the volume and quality of the resources.

Russia won't be able to satisfy Chinese requests to double oil supplies by the pipeline anytime soon because of the need to develop deposits and links, Nikolai Tokarev, head of Transneft, said in September. Rosneft held 15.15 billion barrels of proved oil and gas reserves at the end of 2009, according to an audit.



(Bloomberg)


South Stream confident on EDF deal


http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/02/14/South-Stream-confident-on-EDF-deal/UPI-44991297714862/
Published: Feb. 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

MOSCOW, Feb. 14 (UPI) -- There's no question that French energy giant EDF will join the Russian-led South Stream pipeline project, consortium head Marcel Vietor said.

"To me that's already a fact. We see this as a Russian-Italian-French venture. We are already getting support from the French government," Vietor, the chief executive officer of the South Stream consortium, told the European Energy Review in an interview.

A pipeline project jump-started by the Kremlin to bypass traditional transit country Ukraine, South Stream would eventually bring more than 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Europe, mainly by rerouting gas from Ukraine.

Gazprom, Italy's Eni as the main European backer of South Stream and EDF last summer signed a memorandum of understanding that the French utility would join the pipeline consortium by the end of 2010; the agreement hasn't been finalized.

The Europeans, meanwhile, are pushing hard for Nabucco.

Backed by Germany's RWE and OMV from Austria, Nabucco would transport up to 31 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Caspian and Middle Eastern gas to Europe, bypassing Russia. However, the pipeline hasn't secured definitive gas commitments.

Experts have questioned whether there is supply and demand for both projects, an analysis that has resulted in what the media has termed the "pipeline war."

The European Union has identified Nabucco as a key project to diversify Europe's energy imports and wants to support it via its new infrastructure package. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Energy Commissioner Guenter Oettinger recently visited Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to secure gas commitments from the region.

South Stream's CEO since October, Vietor said Nabucco shouldn't be given preferential treatment when it comes to financing and regulatory procedures.

"We are not asking for preferential treatment or for subsidies," Vietor said. "We can do this project by ourselves, with our partners. All we are asking for is a level playing field."

He added, "There should not be a built-in disadvantage for a project just because it brings gas from Russia, a long-standing strategic partner of the EU."

Nabucco, a project supported by Brussels and Washington, will receive loans from the World Bank, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Ever since a row over gas prices with Ukraine in 2006, the Kremlin has been accused of using its energy reserves as a political pressure tool. The lack of trust has resulted in conflicts over Europe's diversification strategy, with Russia threatening to supply Asia's emerging economies instead.

The problems have intensified as Europe is pushing for renewable energy and in the wake of the financial crisis demand and prices for gas have tumbled.

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/02/14/South-Stream-confident-on-EDF-deal/UPI-44991297714862/print/#ixzz1E0DGNXjp




The rush to Russia


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=the-rush-to-russia-2011-02-14
Monday, February 14, 2011

MATTHEW HULBERT

Once the legal dust settles on the BP-Rosneft deal, the political air will remain murky, not only in London and Moscow, but also further afield in Washington. This is hardly surprisingly when we consider the volte face involved. Two years ago Bob Dudley was chased out of Russia as chairman of TNK-BP; four weeks ago he was sitting down with the president of Rosneft (Eduard Khudainatov) to sign the world’s first ever equity alliance between a national and international oil company. BP and Rosneft are now tied at the hip. Dudley was the lead surgeon.

To say this hasn’t gone down well in Washington would be an understatement. “Bolshoi Petroleum” was the quip fired back from a US Congress still chafing from BP’s Macondo mishaps. It’s certainly a catchy label, but one that is ultimately wrong. This is a case of “Business Petroleum” through and through. More likely than not, it will signal the start of an upstream M&A frenzy in the oil sector as “Big Oil” has learnt “big lessons” from the Gulf disaster: what were once deemed high-risk markets are now fair game, and the supposed “safe bets,” such as the Gulf of Mexico, if not quite “toxic,” will be treated with caution. Working more closely with national champions is also the inevitable way of the future for IOCs that want to flourish and prosper. Indeed, this analysis has already been vindicated by subsequent events; both ExxonMobil and Shell have followed BP’s example in the past weeks and have announced their interest in cooperating with Rosneft.

If nothing else, the Rosneft deal demonstrates that BP deems Moscow to be a better, and indeed, more lucrative bet than Washington. This is a reality that popular media have failed to wake up to. They are still too busy wasting endless column inches bleating on about political risks pervading Russia. “News flash” just in: BP knows that Russia is no bed of political roses – that’s precisely why it has upped its game and decided to deal directly with the Kremlin rather than keep walking the TNK-BP tightrope.

Call it a hedge on BP’s part if you like, but Russia is in no position to be playing hard and fast with upstream development right now, and BP knows it. Russian depletion rates all point toward the fact that Moscow will struggle to maintain output at the current level of above 10 million barrels per day The Rosneft deal demonstrates that BP deems Moscow to be a better, and indeed, more lucrative bet than Washington in the coming years. This is kind of problematic for a state that still draws on oil and gas for two thirds of its exports, half of its federal budget revenue and 20 percent of its GDP. The Arctic thus really matters for Russia – not only for the incremental barrel, and not just for economic froth, but the political surety of the state.

The initial blocs in question are said to hold as much oil and gas as the North Sea, which would be 60 billion barrels of oil-equivalents. Igor Sechin, Russia’s deputy prime minister and chairman of Rosneft, even said they may hold an estimated 5 billion metric tons (35 billion barrels) of oil and 10 trillion cubic meters of gas (63 billion barrels of oil equivalent), a total of 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That would add a quarter to Russia’s already massive 44.4 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves and more than a third to its sizeable, if less impressive, oil reserves. But the only way to get at such phenomenal resources is through massive capital expenditures and technological edge, both of which BP is offering.

For now, Rosneft has taken a 5 percent stake in BP while the British company has upped its stake to 10.8 percent in the company, in which the state has a 75 percent stake. All told, the deal roughly equates to a $7.8 billion swap. BP will also be sinking $2 billion into initial Arctic surveys. Further equity swaps should certainly not be ruled out between the two entities, nor should engagement from Gazprom on the gas side if potential reserves start to look rather juicy, particularly as the Kremlin has gone to great lengths to warn TNK that BP could, and indeed should, be doing business in Russia outside of the Alfa Access Renova consortium.

The fact that the Russian entity has had to turn to London’s High Court for legal redress against BP for the Rosneft deals suggests that BP knows the difficulties of doing business in Russia. True; the consortium has managed to win a short term injunction against the BP-Rosneft deal until late February, but whether it can overcome Sechin, Putin’s right-hand man who stands firmly behind the Rosneft deal remains to be seen. Expect AAR either to be brought into the Rosneft deal, take a large payout, or be totally wiped out by the Kremlin. Under no scenario will TNK be allowed to stand in the way of Arctic exploration, even though its dismemberment would do little to aid BP’s share price in the short term given that 25 percent of its revenues still derive from the consortium.

*This article was originally published by Europeanenergyreview.eu, an independent platform focusing on energy markets. 




Gazprom

North Russian indigenous group protests Gazprom pipeline


http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110215/162611863.html
12:26 15/02/2011

YAKUTSK, February 15 (RIA Novosti) - An indigenous group inhabiting Russia's northern region of Yakutia has called for the rerouting of a planned Siberian gas pipeline.

The planned pipeline, which will link Yakutia's Chayandinskoye oil and gas deposit with the Far Eastern Russian city of Khabarovsk, is to be constructed near an indigenous Evenk settlement.

"We are not against progress or economic development, but we feel like we are the ones who will suffer from this," the group said in a petition, signed by 213 people. "Our reindeer pastures and hunting sites are being seized, rivers are being poisoned and fish are disappearing."

The Evenks have sent letters to the regional and national governments calling for the rerouting of the pipeline. They say their habitat is already under threat from the construction of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline and the development of gold and iron ore deposits in the republic.

Russian energy giant Gazprom, which is constructing the pipeline, has said an alternative pipeline would be much longer and would cost around 49 billion rubles ($1.67 billion) more in construction expenditures

"The sparsely populated Evenks, who have inhabited these territories for centuries, will be most affected by this decision," Yakut deputy parliamentary speaker Andrei Krivoshapkin told RIA Novosti.

The Chayandinskoye oil and gas deposit to be developed by Gazprom is one of the largest in Russia, with gas reserves estimated at 1.24 trillion cubic meters and oil and gas condensate reserves of 68.4 billion tons.



Gazprom reports decrease in European export sales in 4Q10

http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text14235


VTB Capital


February 15, 2011

News: Gazprom has reported European export sales decreasing 8% YoY in 4Q10. There were major drops in exports to Germany (25% YoY), France (49% YoY), Greece (25% YoY), Hungary (40% YoY) and Slovenia (44% YoY).

Our View: The news was expected as Gazprom had already indicated during its Investor Day in Moscow last Friday that export volumes to Europe in 2010 amounted to 139bcm (lower than the company expected and below 2009 levels). However, we believe that the export dynamics for 1Q11 are now more important. The company said that in January 2011, European exports were up 6% YoY.

Today, Gazprom is due to hold its Investor Day in London, with Alexander Medvedev, the Head of Gazprom Export, expected to be present (he missed the Moscow Investor Day). Thus, there might be more newsflow about the expected export dynamics this year.




The pipes under Gazprom are burning


http://rt.com/politics/press/izvestiya/gazprom-gas-price-putin/en/
Published: 15 February, 2011, 03:52

Evgeny Arsyukhin

­There is a chance that gas might become cheaper. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin foretold Gazprom’s future: if it continues working as inefficiently as it is today, it will be deprived of its monopoly access to the pipeline. As a result, oil companies, which are today burning associated gas from oil wells will be able to sell it, and fuel will drop in price, argue experts. Izvestia decided to examine how a reform of the oil and gas sector will affect consumers.    

Starting April 1, retail gas prices will rise by 10%. The tariffs are regulated by the government. But the tone is set by the monopoly itself. Gas reserves are not rising, so why should the price of gas decrease, say proponents of high prices. But their arguments are cunning. Gas flames burn over Russia. Oil companies are forced to burn about 20 billion cubic feet of associated gas from oil wells, or even more – enough to heat a medium-sized European country. Oil industry workers would be happy to sell the blue fuel, but they cannot get to the pipeline. Gazprom stands in the way.     

The government has adopted a decree, according to which, in 2012, oil industry workers will need to be processing 95% of associated gas. In the fall of last year, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin warned oil companies that if they disrupt the implementation of the governmental decree, then “they will suffer economically”. It is Sechin who is the ideologist of the oil and gas sector reform, and it is he who helped the industry recover from the crisis. Now, he demands answers… But, it turns out that the oil companies are not completely at fault. They are unable to afford building their own pipelines (they are already the “milking cow” of the federal budget, not much is left for the development of new deposits), neither can they create a gas processing plant in the Taiga. In the end, the government directed its anger at the one who already has a pipeline – Gazprom.       

If you don’t start working effectively, then we will be forced to make changes to the existing rules,” Prime Minister Vladimir Putin addressed representatives of the gas monopoly. “You are putting company interests above the interests of the industry, which becomes a hindrance to the economy, do you realize that? You need to react accordingly and put resources into development.” 

Gazprom has the pipeline and will continue owning it; this is prescribed in the law on gas supplies, which was adopted in 1999, says Professor Andrey Konoplyanik, a gas industry expert. But that does not mean that the pipeline is closed to the other companies – theoretically. And in practice, access to the pipeline is blocked by administrative obstacles, which are partially justified (for example, Gazprom may not like the quality of gas), and partially made up.  

The result is a paradox. Gazprom’s production is unlikely to grow at the current rate, say experts, we are already seeing a gas deficit, and with the current provision of gas supplies in the country (60%), it will become even more acute. It’s as if there is no gas. And at the same time, it’s everywhere.   

Oil companies drill a well in order to find oil, and suddenly come across a gas reservoir,” Georgy Sergienko, executive director of the Russian Fuel Union, illustrated a daily example.  

Where does it go? Some of it is sold to Gazprom for next-to-nothing, with hopes that it will be bought. Some is injected back to “support the formation”, some is directed to a petrochemical plant. But these are negligible amounts. A lion’s share, as you might have guessed, is burned. Incidentally, having torches is a must. If an accident occurs on an oil well, and gas should erupt, it needs to be burned immediately, which requires having “the eternal flame”. This is only 0.3-0.5% of production, says Konoplyanik. So, the demand to process 95% – is technologically justified, even with reserves.     

Oil industry workers are happy that a real culprit for their troubles, as they believe, has been named. They hardly like always being referred to as “extreme”– especially because they are fully behind the implementation of the governmental decree.   

The government had put pressure on oil companies, forcing them to limit prices,” says Sergienko. “Apparently, they got upset and raised the question of how they can make money. If they cannot sell gas – then they cannot make money.”  

Putin sent Gazprom a signal that it’s time to start talking to Lukoil, Rosneft, and TNK-BP,” says Aleksey Golubovich, chairman of the Board of Directors of Arbat Capital. “Meanwhile, there are no serious reasons to change the system of access to the pipeline.

In order to do that, the law on gas supply will need to be amended,” says Konoplyak, there is no reason to do this, as the administrative obstacles can be lifted without this.  

The government is receiving complaints from oil companies, and from citizens, who are unhappy with the gas prices,” says a source, familiar with the story behind the prime minister’s speech. “The government decided to show that it has heard the complaints and is ready to react. And then, everything depends on the good judgment of those toward whom the address is made.”  

Above all else, we could expect an easing of regulations for gas fields located close to the border where foreign operators could, theoretically, be given access to facilitate exports,” says Golubovich.  

However, it would be naive to think that Gazprom won’t respond. If oil companies want to sell gas, let them pay for the construction of new pipelines, says Sergey Pravosudov, director of the National Energy Institute.  

Independent gas producers believe that if they are paying Gazprom for transportation, then Gazprom needs to transport their gas to where they want,” he summarizes the gist of the problem. “Gazprom is saying that it is ready to transport gas to where there is spare capacity, and if the independent companies want to direct it where there are no spare capacities, then let them pay money to expand the pipeline. Theoretically, the independent companies are not against paying, but the sides cannot agree on the exact amount.” 

Perhaps, this is only the beginning of the scandal. And there is a chance the battle won’t be limited to Gazprom and the oil companies. An attack on Gazprom on behalf of the prime minister could encourage bloggers, who have long held a grudge against the monopoly. A report on how much money Gazprom is spending on pipeline construction has already surfaced in the press – the company pays $7.5 million per kilometer.



To be honest, this type of a threat has not been considered,” says a source familiar with the preparation process of the prime minister’s speech. “Though lawsuits from minority stake holders are possible, it’s unlikely they will be significant. Putin, after all, did not blame the monopoly for theft.” 

One place from which Gazprom is sure not to expect any troubles – is the West. Having heard that Putin intends to deprive Gazprom access to the pipeline, some commentators rejoiced: exactly these types of demands are part of the European Energy Charter, which Russia is debating with the EU. The Charter allegedly stipulates opening pipeline access to anyone. Konoplyanik is surprised: who made up this myth? He recommends opening page 26 of the Russian version of the document (or 28 of the English version) to see that this is not the case. The West does care who is transporting what through Gazprom’s pipeline so long as the gas supply for Klaus in the distant Bavaria does not end. And it certainly won’t, if the Russian pipeline is supplied by oil companies as well. Neither will the Russian consumer lose.

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