Russia 110217 Basic Political Developments
Lebedev Sells Bank Stake to Son to Guard Assets, Kommersant Says
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- Russias Solway confirms $3 bln nickel smelter investment in Indonesia
- Rusal Trails Alcoa With Owner’s $12.8 Billion Snub to Investors
Lebedev Sells Bank Stake to Son to Guard Assets, Kommersant Sayshttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNq.vozhIxOg By Henry Meyer Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russian billionaire Alexander Lebedev sold 15 percent of his National Reserve Bank to his son Evgeny, Kommersant reported, citing the elder Lebedev. Alexander Lebedev sold the stake as part of a bid to safeguard assets from Russian government officials after raids at his bank in Moscow, the Moscow-based newspaper said, without citing anyone. Evgeny Lebedev lives in London, has U.K. citizenship and runs the Independent and Evening Standard newspapers. To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brad Cook at bcook7@bloomberg.net Last Updated: February 17, 2011 00:50 EST Orascom CEO: Merger will not go through if not approved in March http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text14247 Renaissance Capital February 17, 2011 Event: Yesterday (16 February), Reuters reported that Orascom Telecom's CEO, Khaled Bichara, has announced that Wind Telecom does not intend to complete the merger with VimpelCom if the deal is not approved at VimpelCom's EGM (scheduled for 17 March), as the merger process has dragged on for too long. According to Bichara, the company would like to clear up all of the concerns surrounding the deal and finalise it quickly, whereas Telenor's injunction may prevent a fast and successful completion. Action: If the deal falls apart, we think it will create positive sentiment for the stock. However, we believe the chances that Telenor will block the deal at the EGM are low. Telenor's request for an injunction threatens the deal, as the approval process may drag on. Rationale: Telenor has recently commenced arbitration to protect its pre-emptive rights in the merger. The company's request for an injunction is a major stumbling block for VimpelCom's other major shareholder, Alfa, as it may delay the deal and prevent its completion. The court is due to hear Telenor's request on 25 February, which will be the next important event. VimpelCom, on a standalone basis (excluding Wind Telecom), trades at 3.6x EV/EBITDA 2011E, a very attractive valuation, in our view. We think the chances of Alfa getting the deal approved are high, as it needs just 28% of minorities to vote in favour if all minorities participate in the vote. Ivan Kim
(Adds details) JAKARTA Feb 14 (Reuters) - Russia's Solway Group on Thursday confirmed plans to build an Indonesian nickel smelter with the capacity to produce 50,000 tonnes of the metal a year. "We expect to start production in 2014," said Vasily Tsarev, consulting partner for Solway in Indonesia, adding that capacity could be expanded to 80,000 tonnes. Hatta Rajasa, Indonesia's chief economic minister said on Monday that the Russian firm planned to invest $3 billion to build the smelter on Halmahera island in eastern Indonesia, a sign of growing interest by investors in the country's mineral processing industry. The firm will feed the plant with nickel ore from its concession on the same island, which has confirmed resources of 50 million metric tonnes ore, said Tsarev "But resources can range between 110-115 million tonnes when we do further exploration," he said, adding the firm is looking to acquire nickel mines on Sulawesi island. Indonesia currently produces ferro-nickel from three smelters operated by Aneka Tambang, and nickel-in-matte from smelters operated by PT Inco Tbk , a unit of Brazil's Vale . French's Eramet , the world's sixth-largest nickel producer, has a nickel project on Halmahera in a joint venture with Indonesian state miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk . Aside from the nickel smelter, privately owned Solway plans to build a 400 MW coal-fired power plant which will be used to power the smelter, said Tsarev. The firm will burn low-quality coal with heating value 5,000-5,500 kcal/kg for the power plan which will be supplied by its coal concession in West Papua, he said. Indonesia, the world's top exporter of tin and thermal coal, is keen to increase revenue from the mining sector. Under a new mining and coal law, miners must by 2014 carry out a minimum of processing before exporting, including on nickel. Indonesia's mining sector attracted 53 trillion rupiah or $6 billion in bank financing up to September 2010, versus the 14 trillion rupiah that banks loaned to the industry in 2006, central bank figures show, despite uncertainties over the country's new mining law. Foreign direct investment as a whole is growing into Southeast Asia's biggest economy, as investors eye its mineral wealth, booming domestic consumption and increased stability, despite concerns over rampant corruption, red tape and inadequate infrastructure. (Reporting by Fitri Wulandari and Rieka Rahadiana) Rusal Trails Alcoa With Owner’s $12.8 Billion Snub to Investorshttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aedVufeu6IhU By Ilya Khrennikov Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- United Co. Rusal, the biggest aluminum producer, is trailing Alcoa Inc. and all other peers as billionaire founder Oleg Deripaska snubs shareholders’ pleas to end a two-year battle for control of OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel. Rusal, trading at about 6.5 times estimated 2011 earnings, has the lowest valuation on that measure among its five main peers, with Alcoa at about 12.3 times earnings and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. at 11.9 times, Deutsche Bank AG data show. Moscow-based Rusal has also lagged behind Alcoa’s share gains since the Russian company listed in Hong Kong on Jan. 27, 2010. Chief Executive Officer Deripaska, who rebuffed two offers last year for Rusal’s 25 percent holding in Norilsk, received a sweetened $12.8 billion bid last week from the nickel company to buy back most of its stake. Deripaska rejected that price in an interview with CNBC. The holding’s market value has risen 56 percent in a year to $11.4 billion, almost half Rusal’s value. “A sale of the Norilsk Nickel stake at a premium to the market may prove to be the best outcome for UC Rusal, putting the company in a solid net cash position and opening the door to development opportunities, both organic and through M&A,” Marat Gabitov, an analyst in Moscow at UniCredit SpA, said in a note. Investors in Rusal’s initial public offering a year ago, including billionaire Li Ka-shing and New York hedge-fund manager Paulson & Co., saw the stock tumble as much as 38 percent before recovering. Rusal’s 21 percent gain since its listing compares with a 30 percent jump for Alcoa. While the rebound was helped by an increase in Norilsk’s value, Rusal would do best to sell the stake, according to some analysts. Let Battle Commence “Rusal has benefited from its premiums from Norilsk but if it were to sell its stake at a premium, then that would also be well received by investors,” said Helen Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UOB-Kay-Hian Ltd. “The key issue now is the company’s relationship with Norilsk.” Deripaska has been embroiled in a dispute over control of Norilsk with fellow shareholder Vladimir Potanin since 2008. The battle has also drawn in Rusal investors including Glencore International AG and Mikhail Prokhorov, who favors a sale, and Trafigura Beheer BV, which agreed to buy 8 percent of Norilsk. Rusal investor and Chairman Viktor Vekselberg also sought to maintain talks with Norilsk over the stake in the face of opposition from his CEO, Interfax reported Jan. 24. Rusal said in an e-mailed statement on Feb. 11 that its board would consider the latest offer received from Norilsk. Maria Uvarova, a Norilsk spokeswoman, and Vera Kurochkina, a spokeswoman for Rusal, declined to comment further. Higher Bid Norilsk, the largest nickel and palladium producer, on Feb. 11 raised its bid to buy back its shares to $12.8 billion for a 20 percent stake, from $12 billion for 25 percent. That followed talks in late December when Deripaska demanded $16 billion, a person with knowledge of the matter said Jan. 19. Glencore, the biggest commodity trader and Trafigura rival, may not be awarded any contracts by Norilsk, said the person, declining to be identified because the talks were private. By holding out, Deripaska has forced Norilsk to offer about $3.5 billion above the odds for Rusal’s stake, a transfer of value from the nickel producer to the billionaire’s company, said Dmitry Smolin, an analyst at UralSib Capital in Moscow. Rusal would be able to pay off all its debt and still have about $1 billion in cash as a result, he wrote in a Feb. 14 note. Rusal May Soar “Norilsk made a beneficial proposal to Rusal,” Prokhorov said yesterday in an e-mailed statement, adding that his Onexim Group will support the deal. “The situation has obviously come to a dead-end, so one of the parties should take the decision to sell.” Rusal, valued at about HK$198 billion ($25 billion) based on prices in Hong Kong, could increase to as much as $35 billion should it sell out of Norilsk, Prokhorov said Dec. 23. The billionaire owns 17 percent of the company. Deripaska on Jan. 27 said he expects Norilsk’s market value to surge to at least $70 billion this year. That would boost the value of Rusal’s stake to $17.5 billion and add to a buyback’s cost. He also said Rusal’s debt will fall within four years. “Debt will be so insignificant, it won’t be worth mentioning,” he said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland. Rusal’s net borrowings fell to below $12 billion as of Sept. 30 after almost doubling to as much as $16.6 billion following the company’s purchase of Norilsk shares in 2008. “Though many investors were first skeptical about Rusal, the company has been aggressively repaying its debt,” said Alexandre Starinsky, a fund manager at Atria Advisors Ltd. in Moscow, with $300 million in assets including Rusal IPO shares. “Rusal performed well due to rising aluminum prices and its cost leadership based on access to cheap electricity.” Catch Up Of the 23 analysts who track Rusal surveyed by Bloomberg, 17 rate the stock a “buy,” five a “hold” and one a “sell.” Part of the attraction for investors is the potential for Rusal’s market valuation to begin to catch up with its peers should the company resolve the battle over Norilsk’s ownership. Rusal trades at just over half the price-to-earnings ratio of Alcoa and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the Russian company’s closest rival on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, according to Deutsche Bank’s latest figures, sent by e-mail on Feb. 15. The ratios, prepared before Norilsk’s most recent offer, were 20 times for Alumina Ltd., 18.6 times for India’s National Aluminium Co. and 13 times for Norsk Hydro ASA. “Rusal’s decision to stick with the Norilsk stake has been curbing its development,” Vladimir Zhukov, an analyst at Nomura International Inc., said in Moscow. “Some of its investors are questioning the rationale. Selling this stake would enable Rusal to eliminate completely its debt and unlock significant organic growth potential.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Khrennikov in Moscow at ikhrennikov@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Amanda Jordan at ajordan11@bloomberg.net.
February 17, 2011 11:29 Directory: gifiles -> attach attach -> British Forces – Akrioti, Greece Griffin Fighter Squadron (84 Squadron raf) MoD announced possible Typhoon and Tornado arrivals to the base France attach -> Russia 110204 Basic Political Developments attach -> Unclassified//for official use only attach -> Adaptability Sustainment attach -> Pop-up 1 ("C" Chechnya) Header Text: Emir of the Caucasus Emirate Doku Umarov Image attach -> Russia and Islam are not Separate attach -> Chapter 13: The Northern Caucasus attach -> Russia 100209 Basic Political Developments attach -> The evolution attach -> The devolution Download 279.59 Kb. Share with your friends:
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