Russia 110811 Basic Political Developments


Firtash’s Ostchem to Export Rossosh Fertilizers, RBC Daily Says



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Firtash’s Ostchem to Export Rossosh Fertilizers, RBC Daily Says


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/firtash-s-ostchem-to-export-rossosh-fertilizers-rbc-daily-says.html
Q

By Ilya Khrennikov - Aug 11, 2011 8:16 AM GMT+0200

Ukrainian billionaire Dmitry Firtash’s Ostchem agreed to be an export trader for Minudobreniya, based in Rossosh, central Russia, RBC Daily reported, citing his press office.

Firtash bid for the Russian fertilizer maker located near the Ukrainian border earlier this year, while the company was acquired by Arkady Rotenberg, Vladimir Putin’s judo partner, last month, the newspaper said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Khrennikov in Moscow at ikhrennikov@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Viljoen at jviljoen@bloomberg.net

Norilsk Rebounds, Snaps Losing Streak on Possible Buyback


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/norilsk-rebounds-snaps-losing-streak-on-possible-buyback-1-.html
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By Jason Corcoran - Aug 10, 2011 5:34 PM GMT+0200

OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel rebounded, advancing for the first time in seven days after Russia’s biggest miner said its board will discuss a new share buyback program at a meeting on Aug. 15.

The shares added 1.6 percent to 6,603 rubles by the 6:45 p.m. close in Moscow.

The buyback price will take into account the last buyout offer to United Co. Rusal, according to a statement on Norilsk’s website today.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net

Mechel reports 1H11 operating results

http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16336

Alfa Bank
August 11, 2011

Mechel reported its 1H11 and 1H10 operating results under new reporting standards for operating results. The company now discloses sales volumes in contrast to production volumes of end products as previously disclosed. The disclosure still provides production volumes for raw coal, pig iron and steel as previously. This change makes it impossible to compare the company's operating results for this period with previous quarters, which were released under the old reporting format.

Coking coal concentrate sales in 1H11 increased 28% y/y to 4.5mt while steam coal remained flat at 3.3mt. Third party iron ore sales declined 28% due to increased usage by Mechel's steel-producing entities. Sales, including inter-company sales, rose 20% y/y.

Our rough estimate (as it is not clear what volumes Mechel stockpiled/destocked following the switch to the new reporting method) for 2Q11 coking coal concentrate production is 3.4mt in comparison with 3.1mt in 1Q11 - a 10% increase q/q. The estimated 2Q11 coking coal concentrate output figure at 3.4mt is 50% of our below-consensus FY11 concentrate production forecast. We view this as a positive surprise as production is typically expected to rise in the second half of the year, but we reiterate that this value is derived based on the assumptions above.

Steel production in 2Q11 amounted to 1.4mt, a 10% decline q/q. This step down was expected by the market due to repair works at the Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant. Overall, we consider results NEUTRAL.

Barry Ehrlich


Tyva Coal Projects Require $3.9 Billion Railroad, Vedomosti Says


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/tyva-coal-projects-require-3-9-billion-railroad-vedomosti-says.html
By Ilya Khrennikov - Aug 11, 2011 6:50 AM GMT+0200

Evraz Group SA and OAO Severstal, Russia’s largest steelmakers, may face difficulties mining metallurgical coal in the untapped Tyva coal province in East Siberia, Vedomosti reported, citing people it didn’t identify.

Exporting coal from the province will require 116 billion rubles ($3.9 billion) of investment in expansion of OAO Russian Railways’ Trans-Siberian railroad, and the state rail company lacks money for this, the newspaper said, citing an official in the Economy Ministry.

Yenisei Industrial Co., acquired by Russian Copper Co. shareholders this year, is another company seeking to develop coal deposits in Tyva, according to Vedomosti.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Khrennikov in Moscow at ikhrennikov@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Viljoen at jviljoen@bloomberg.net



Tuva coal projects under infrastructure pressure; neutral for Severstal and Evraz at this point

http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16336


VTB Capital


August 11, 2011

News: Vedomosti has run an article about the construction of infrastructure for the Tuva coal projects and, specifically, the expansion of the Trans-Siberian railway, which is to be financed by the government. The cost of construction has reportedly been assessed at USD4bn by Russian Railways, up from the USD 900mn voiced up earlier.

Our View: Expanding the Trans-Siberian railway is necessary for the full scale launch of Tuva coal projects. While developing infrastructure (including the construction of the 27mntpa Kyzyl-Kuragino line, to be launched after 2016) is largely the responsibility of the parties participating in the development of the coal field, the expansion was supposed to be financed by the government and Russian Railways. Although we do not expect this load to be transferred to either Evraz or Severstal, the government will probably be reluctant to finance the increased bill, and ongoing negotiations could lead to delays in expanding the Trans-Siberian. Nevertheless, we consider the news to be neutral at this point given the rather distant time horizon and the possibility of alternative supply routes during the ramp up period.

Alexander Pukhaev



Tatarstan plans $1.6bn fertilizer plant

http://www.bne.eu/dispatch_text16336

bne
August 11, 2011

The regional government of Tatarstan plans to invest $1.6bn into building a fertilizers complex, reports Prime.

Based on regional mineral fertilizer producer Mendeleevskazot, the plant is scheduled to produce ammonia, methanol, and granulated carbamide by 2015 said Irek Faizullin, construction, architecture, public utilities minister for the region. The regional government is joined by the federal development bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) as the cornerstone investors.

The complex is planned to produce 717,000 tonnes of ammonia, 717,000 tonnes of carbamide, 380,000 tonnes of ammonia nitrate, and 230,000 tonnes of methanol per year. The payback period of the project is estimated at six to seven years.




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