***Links***
Not upsetting relations now, plan links
Al-Masry Al-youm 2011 (march 3, Al-Masry Al-Youm for Journalism and Publication is an independent Egyptian media organization established in 2003. "Egyptian democracy activists to urge Clinton to restrain Saudi Arabia" http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/354860 SRM)
Egyptian democracy activists said on Tuesday that they will be urging US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to curb Saudi Arabia’s attempts to stop the democratic tide in the region. The activists are due to meet with Clinton during her forthcoming visit to Egypt, and are likely to raise the issue of troops sent by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to Bahrain to help it suppress an uprising. They fear Washington might turn a blind eye to the Saudi intervention so as not to jeopardize its relations with a strategic ally in a region that controls the global oil market. They also said that they and their counterparts in several Arab countries have noticed that Saudi Arabia has started to launch political and economic initiatives, as well as use the media, to thwart democratic revolutions in the region. One of the activists said that sending troops to Bahrain is an “an example of how Saudi Arabia can use its economic power and its relations with Islamist groups to curb democracy in the Arab world.” Another activist said: “Washington should realize that such interventions by an ally will have an adverse effect on the way it handles the new situation in the region.” The New York Times on Tuesday pointed to tension in US-Saudi relations against the backdrop of the latter intervening in Bahrain, adding that Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert Gates had canceled a visit to Riyadh because of the matter. For its part, Saudi Arabia said it did not agree with the way the US administration has handled developments that led to the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak.
The key to relations has shifted from oil and security to democracy. Seriously. This evidence is awesome.
Oil and Gas Journal, 2011 (March 28, "A 'proxy war' in Bahrain", LEXIS, SRM)
"The [friendly] relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has been the key axis for the oil market over many decades," said Paul Horsnell, managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. "When an action by GCC governments elicits for different reasons an unveiled negative diplomatic response from the US and Iranian governments, that is so unusual an event it seems clear to us that something profound has changed in the normal dynamic. Indeed, events in Bahrain and the involvement of external forces there, in our view, potentially represent the evidence of a shift in the main parameters of key political and economic relationships in the region." Saudi King Abdullah was already furious at the haste of the US in abandoning Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to his fate. The king returned from medical leave this month and has handed out billions of dollars in grants to stave off protestors.
Link – Democracy Assistance
Link - Democracy Assistance
LA Times, 2001 (June 19, "U.S., Saudis in Mideast tug of war; Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies." LEXIS, SRM)
The pivot has come after years of growing unhappiness with the U.S. approach to the region. Riyadh was alarmed when George W. Bush's administration allowed a Shiite-dominated government to take control in Iraq after an invasion it opposed. Saudi King Abdullah was outraged when President Obama urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to surrender power after 18 days of street demonstrations. The Saudis also have taken offense at other perceived slights, including a tough pro-reform speech by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar in January, in which she warned that the region's foundations are "sinking into the sand." The Saudis "are upset, they are frustrated, they are angry," said a former senior U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the Saudis' traditional reticence. "They don't know exactly what to do."
Disputes over democracy assistance hurt US-Saudi relations
Bloomberg 2011 (July 17, "Arab Spring Pits Saudi Security Against U.S. Support for Change" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-17/arab-spring-pits-saudi-security-concern-against-u-s-support-for-uprisings.html; SRM)
The Arab Spring might be turning chilly for the U.S.’s alliance with Saudi Arabia. With the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the 2003 invasion of Iraq and more Saudi oil sales to Asia, U.S. sway over Saudi Arabia has declined as their policies diverge, said Theodore Karasik, an analyst at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. The popular uprisings in the Middle East this year tested their partnership by pitting U.S. support for democracy against Saudi Arabia’s desire for a status quo. “Now, when push comes to shove, Saudi Arabia will pursue its own policies regardless of what the U.S and others think,” Karasik said in a telephone interview from Dubai. Saudi Arabia backed former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak right to the end of his rule in February and sent troops to protect the Al Khalifa rulers in Bahrain. The U.S., which last year approved a $60 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia, called for a transition in Egypt and dialogue in Bahrain. President Barack Obama’s government on June 16 put Bahrain on its list of human rights violators along with countries such as North Korea and Iran. The same day, Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, a son of Bahrain’s King Hamad, signed a marriage contract with the daughter of Saudi King Abdullah. “Saudi Arabia wasn’t happy with the way the Obama administration dealt with Hosni Mubarak,” Khalid al-Dakhil, a Saudi political science professor, said in phone interview. “They also disagreed over Bahrain.”
Democracy push in the arab spring cause a US-Saudi rift
Business Insider 2011 ("What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters" LEXIS, SRM)
It appears Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are willing to go the distance in terms of crushing protests in the country. Iran will continue to flap its wings, but will likely be constrained from acting due to the high military costs of any endeavor. What is most uncertain now is whether the U.S. continues in its support for democracy in the region, or retools and focuses on stability. If U.S. leadership chooses the former, it could lead to some difficult rifts with the Saudis, and a potential opening for Iran in the region.
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