Science, and transportation united states senate

trol," a report prepared by Lawton M. Hartman and others for the use of the Committee on

Commerce. U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, Apr. 27, 1966,

181 pp. (89th Cong., 2d sess., Senate Rept. No. 1139.)

87 Comptroller General of the United States, "Need for a National Weather Modification

Research Program," report to the Congress, U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington,

B.C., Aug. 23, 1974, 71 pp.

38 See eh. 6. p. 324.

39 The National Atmospheric Sciences Program, including the Federal program in weather

modification, is published annually in a report of the Interdepartmental Committee for

Atmospheric Sciences. The most recent such report, containing a discussion of and funding

for the fiscal year 1978 program is the following : Federal Coordinating Council for Science,

Engineering, and Technology. Committee on Atmosphere and Oceans, Interdepartmental

Committee for Atmospheric Sciences. National Atmospheric Sciences Program, fiscal year

1978, ICAS 21-FY78, September 1977, pp. 87-94.

210

hale Federal weather modification programs have been housed and

ple, the National Advk^iy Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere

(XACOA) and the Weather Modification Advisory Board are sup-

ported through the Department of Commerce. While the membership

of the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences

(ICAS) comes from each of the Federal departments and agencies

with atmospheric science programs, its staff has been housed in the

National Science Foundation.

The program whereby Federal and non-Federal U.S. weather mod-

ification activities are reported to the Federal Government is adminis-

tered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(XOAA) within the Department of Commerce. Under this program a

central file is maintained on all such projects in the United States,

and summary reports on these projects are published on a nearly

annual basis by NOAA.

The United States has been active in at least two areas of interna-

tional interest in weather modification. One aspect has been the efforts

through the United Nations to promote the adoption of a treaty bar-

ring weather modification as a military weapon. There is also a U.S.

interest in international efforts to modify the environment for bene-

ficial purposes. The State Department is active in negotiating agree-

ments with other countries which might be affected by U.S. experiments

and has also arranged for Federal agencies and other U.S. investiga-

tors for participation in international meterological projects, includ-

ing weather modification, under the World Meteorological Organiza-

tion (WMO). These activities are discussed in more detail in a subse-

quent chapter on international aspects of weather modification. 40

In the next subsection there is an attempt to describe the Federal

organizational structure for weather modification, at least to the extent

that such a structure exists, has existed, or may exist in the near

future. Other subsections address Federal coordination and advisory

groups, the weather modification activities reporting program, and

the array of Federal studies and reports which have been undertaken

by the executive branch, either as required by law or initiated within

the branch. A summary of the Federal research program and detailed

descriptions of each of the several agencies programs in weather modi-

fication are contained in a separate major section at the end of this

chapter. 41

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE FEDERAL WEATHER MODIFICATION

PROGRAM

The present Federal structure of weather modification research

activities is characterized esseiitially by the mission-oriented approach,

where each of six or seven deportments and agencies conducts its

own program in accordance with broad agency goals or under specific

directions from the Congress or the Executive. The exception to this

approach is the program of the Xational Science Foundation, whose

funded weather modification research activities have included a broad

11 See p. 241 ff.

211

range of individual fundamental problem investigations, research

and conduct of major projects initiated by the Foundation. The pro-

grams of the several agencies have been loosely coordinated with others

through various independent arrangements and/or advisory panels

and particularlv through the Interdepartmental Committee for At-

mospheric Sciences (ICAS). The ICAS, established in 1959 by the

former Federal Council for Science and Technology, provides advice

on matters related to atmospheric science in general and has also been

the principal coordinating mechanism for Federal research in the

field of weather modification. The following observation on the cur-

rent Federal weather modification organizational structure was stated

recently by the chairman of the ICAS :

Organization [s] doing the research [should] be knowledgeable of the sector

of the public that is to be involved with special weather modification techniques.

There is no single agency within the Government that knows all of the problems

of society vis-a-vis weather modification. As things stand, the individual weather

modification programs being carried out by the various ICAS member agencies

are being pursued in concert with the missions of those agencies. 42

The nature of the present Federal organizational structure for

weather modification is related to and results from the prevailing

policy, or lack of such policy, currently subscribed to by the Federal

Government regarding weather modification. The clearest statement

of such a policy came in a reply to a 1975 letter from Congressmen

Gilbert Gude and Donald M. Fraser and Senator Claiborne Pell,

addressed to the President, urging that a coordinated Federal program

in the peaceful uses of weather be initiated. 43 In the official response

from the executive branch, written by Norman E. Ross, Jr., Assistant

Director of the Domestic Council, the current Federal weather modifi-

cation policy was affirmed :

We believe that the agency which is charged with the responsibility for deal-

ing with a particular national problem should be given the latitude to seek

the best approach or solution to the problem. In some instances this may involve

a form of weather modification, while in other instances other approaches may

be more appropriate.

While we would certainly agree that some level of coordination of weather

modification research efforts is logical, we do not believe that a program under

the direction of any one single agency's leadership is either necessary or

desirable. We have found from our study that the types of scientific research

conducted by agencies are substantially different in approach, techniques, and

type of equipment employed, depending on the particular weather phenomena

being addressed. * * * Each type of weather modification requires a different form

of program management and there are few common threads which run along

all programs. 44

Recently, the Chairman of the Commerce Department's Weather

Modification Advisory Board, Harlan Cleveland, expressed the

Board's opinion of the current Federal policy and structure :

The United States does not now have a weather modification policy. The

three main Federal actors in weather modification research are NOAA in the

42 Testimony of Dr. Edward P. Todd In U.S. Congress, House of Representatives, Commit-

tee on Science and Teehnolosy, Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere,

'Weather Modification." hearings. 94th Cong., 2d sess.. June 15-18, 1976. Washington. D.C.,

T.S. Government Printing Office, 1976, p. 81.

43 Gude. Gilbert. "Weather Modification." Congressional Record. June 17. 1975, pp. 19201-

192f>3. (The statement in the Congressional Record, including the letter to the President

and the official reply, are reproduced in app. A.)

" Ibid.

Department of Commerce, the Bureau of Reclamation in the Department of

the Interior, and the National Science Foundation. . . . Their combined R and D

efforts can only be described as fragmented and famished, living from hand to

mouth on each agency's relationship with a different congressional subcommittee,

with no sense of a national policy or program. . . . The agencies that are involved,

and their university and other contractors and grantees, have developed, despite

the fragmentation, remarkably effective informal relationships which make

the coordination and mutual assistance better than the division of roles and

missions would indicate. 45

A somewhat different viewpoint, but related in several points to the

preceding opinions w*as expressed in 1976 by Dr. Ronald L. Lavoie,

Director of NOAA's Environmental Modification Office, addressing

the second meeting of the North American Interstate Weather Modifi-

cation Council :

Let me address the question of current Federal policies in weather modifi-

cation — the statement has been made that there aren't any. I think that I must

disagree with that statement. There are, in fact, such policies although they

are perhaps unobtrusive or low-key. They certainly aren't propounded very

loudly, but I think it is safe to say that there is some Federal policy on weather

modification. . . . For example, in the area of research and operations the Federal

policy, or you may call it strategy, is to leave it to the specialized agencies to

fund research and to develop or apply weather modification in carrying out their

particular missions. One can argue with this policy ; nevertheless, it does

exist. . . . One shouldn't get the impression, however, that this is an entirely

fragmented effort. . . . There is some coordination or integration, at least in the

sense that technocrats responsible for advising the agencies in these matters get

together to discuss issues and share problems Nevertheless, there is no Fed-

eral or national commitment to weather modification, and I believe that this is

what was implied when it was said that there was no national policy.* 8

Yet another observation on the subject of Federal organization is

that expressed in the 1974 report by the U.S. General Accounting

Office:

Our review of the Federal weather modification research activities supports

the findings of nearly a decade of studies. These studies conducted by scientific

panels, committees, and other groups all identified common problems — ineffec-

tive coordination, fragmented research, and research efforts that are subcritical

(funded below the level necessary to produce timely, effective results). Most

studies proposed a common solution. What was needed, in essence, was a

national research program under a single Federal agency responsible for estab-

lishing plans and priorities, obtaining the needed funds from the Congress,

managing research efforts, and accounting for the results its programs achieved.

To date, except for the establishment of several coordinating committees,

subcommittees, and advisory panels — none of which have the authority to take

action to correct problems already identified — an effective overall national

weather modification research program has not been established. 47

There is some consensus that the apparent fragmentation and lack

of a cohesive Federal effort have not only prevented the growth of a

strong, adequately funded research program but may have also

retarded progress in development of weather modification technology

45 Cleveland, Harlan. "A U.S. Policy To Enhance the Atmospheric Environment." A dis-

cussion paper by the Weather Modification Advisory Board, Oct. 21, 1977. (Submitted as

part of testimony in hearing : U.S. Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on Sci-

ence and Technology. Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere, "Weathel

Modification," Oct. 26, 1977. p. 41.)

49 Lavoie, Ronald L.. "Effects of Legislation on Federal Programs and the Prospect of Fed-

eral Involvement." In proceedings of Conference on Weather Modification, Today and Tomor-

row : second annual meeting of the North American Interstate Weather Modification Coun-

cil, Kansas City, Mo., Jan. 15-16. 1976, pub. No. 76-1, pp. 56-57.

*" Comptroller General of the United States. "Need for a National Weather Modification

Research Program." report to the Congress. U.S. General Accounting Oftlce, B-133202, Wash-

ington, D.C., Aug. 23, 1974, p. 3.

213

itself. Many feel strongly that assignment of a "lead agency" would

the present structure for Federal Government activity in weather mod-

ification appears to be working satisfactorily," 48 and the existence of

separate agency programs fosters increased understanding through

independent research projects and through the cross- fertilization of

ideas and exchange of findings achieved in cooperative projects, in

professional meetings, and through program-level coordination.

In a recent Federal study on weather modification, a subcommittee

of the Domestic Council could not reach a consensus on the proper

institutional structure for planning and management of the national

weather modification research effort. Consequently, both of the posi-

tions noted above were identified as options for such Federal

structure : 49

Option (1) : Continue coordination and planning of the national

weather modification effort through the Interdepartmental Committee

for Atmospheric Sciences of the Federal Council for Science and

Technology, with individual agencies pursuing their mission responsi-

bilities.

Option (2) : Establish a lead agency to foster the broad advance-

ment of the science and technology of weather modification as

recommended by the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and

Atmosphere, the National Academy of Sciences, and other groups to

coordinate and plan the national effort with the assistance and partici-

pation of other agencies.

Those who espouse the latter position feel that the lead agency

responsibility should include the following functions : 50

The lead agency would assume the leadership for planning the

Federal weather modification program, in concert with those other

concerned agencies, universities, and the private sector.

The lead agency would present, within the executive branch, a

consolidated national weather modification research plan and be

available to represent the national plan before the Congress.

The lead agency would, within the framework of the joint plan-

ning effort, encourage and assist in justifying programmatic ac-

tivities in other agencies that might contribute significantly to the

national weather modification objectives, especially when those

programs can be implemented as supplements to the agencies'

ongoing mission-related activities.

The lead agency would take on the responsibility for presenting

the budgetary requirements to carry out the national plan to the

Office of Management and Budget and, with due consideration of

overall priorities of the agency, would seek to provide within its

own budget for activities essential to the national plan and not

incorporated in the budgets of the other agencies.

The history of the organization of the Federal program in weather

modification, to the extent that such a structure has existed, can be

4 * Testimony of Dr. Alfred J. Esgers. Jr.. Assistant Director for Research Applications,

National Science Foundation in U.S. Congress. House of Representatives. Committee on

Seienr-e and Technology. Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere. "Weather

Modification. " v>earin£s. 04th Consr.. 2d sess., June 15-1S, 1976, Washington, D.C., U.S. Gov-

ernment Printing: Office. 1976. p. 109.

49 U.S. Domestic Council. Environmental Resources Committee. Subcommittee on Climate

Change, "The Federal Role in Weather Modification." Washington, D.C, December 1975,

p. 19.

214

These periods and the characteristics of the Federal organization dur-

ing each are discussed briefly below.

Federal structure; 194-6-57

As seen in the earlier historical account of weather modification, in

the period from 1946 through 1957 practically all projects in the

United States were conducted by private individuals and by industry

supported through private funds. What activities the U.S. agencies

did support were both mission oriented and mostly uncoordinated. The

Defense Department developed an early research program, specifically

in seeding technology and hardware. Since World War II, the Air

Force had a continuing need to dissipate fog, and the Korean war and

SAC missions during this period required airports to be open to permit

unrestricted flights. The Navy developed a strong research capability

at its China Lake, Calif., laboratory, concentrating on seeding de-

vices and materials. Project Cirrus, a joint project of the Army Signal

Corps, the Navy, and the Air Force, was initiated by the Defense

Department in 1947 and continued through 1952.

Civilian implications for weather modification were investigated

by the U.S. Weather Bureau of the Commerce Department in 1948 as

part of its cloud physics program. The Bureau's early position, how-

ever, seemed to lack enthusiasm for a research program at the time,

largely reflecting agency conservatism and some unwillingness to be

caught up in a technology that was fraught with exaggerated claims

of commercial rainmakers. 51 This early negative outlook of the

Weather Bureau was modified in the late 1960's when its successive

parent organizations, the Environmental Science Services Adminis-

tration (ESSA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-

istration (NOAA), inaugurated a fresh interest in a weather modifi-

cation research program. The Weather Bureau did participate with

the Navy in project SCUD in 1953-54 along the east coast, in an

attempt to modify the behavior of extratropical cyclones by artificial

nucleation.

The third Federal agency conducting weather modification re-

search during this period was the Forest Service of the U.S. Depart-

ment of Agriculture, which in 1953 initiated Project Skyfire, aimed

at suppressing lightning, a major cause of forest fires. This project

received joint support later during the 1960's from the National Sci-

ence Foundation, and. until its demise in 1976. was the longest run-

ning single Federal weather modification research project.

Confusion and uncertainty in the state of weather modification,

owing to a mixed reaction to achipA-oments and claims of achieve-

ment of weathor modification operators and to the lack of a cohesive

research program in the Federal Government, led to the establish-

ment in 1953 of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control, by

Public Law 83-256. During the conduct of the intensive investiga-

tion of the subject by the Advisory Committee between 1953 and

r>1 Communications from F. W. Reichelderfer. Chief of the U.S. Weather Bureau, in U.S.

Congress. Senate. Committees on Interior and Insular Affairs. Interstate and Foreign Com-

merce, and Agriculture and Forestry, "Weather Control and Augmented Potable Water

Supply," Joinl hearings, ,92d Cong., 1st sess.. Mar. 14. 15, 16, 19 and Apr. 5, 1951, Washing-

ton, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1951, pp. 37^17.

215

1957. the committee seems to have provided somewhat of a coordina-

effort it was studying. There was support in the Congress for both

the formulation and the Federal management by the Advisory Com-

mittee of a 5-year Federal-State weather modification research pro-

gram, to be conducted by the committee, the States, universities, and

private institutions. 52 The Advisory Committee favored an existing

Federal agency, however, for this proposed management function.

Federal structure; 1958-68

The Advisory Committee, reporting in 1957, provided a setting

for progress over the next 10 years, as it presented elements of a

national policy and guidelines for future development of a research

program. A former NSF program manager for weather modifica-

tion, Earl G. Droessler, recently praised the work of the Advisory

Committee :

The Committee did a remarkable job for weather modification. Perhaps, most

importantly, its careful study and reporting in the 1950's gave a measure of

respect, cohesion, and momentum for the field of weather modification, and

thus provided a setting for progress over the next decade and more. Prior to

the work of the committee, the field was plagued with tension and

uncertainty. 53

Encouraging a wide research program in meterology as the essen-

tial foundation for understanding weather modification, the Ad-

visory Committee named the National Science Foundation as its rec-

ommended agency for sponsoring the required research program.

Accordingly, the Congress, when it enacted Public Law 85-510, di-

rected the NSF to initiate and support a program in weather modi-

fication and effectively named the NSF as lead Federal agency for

weather modification.

Weather modification research enjoyed a position of high value

and priority among the top leadership of the Foundation. 54 The XSF

promoted a vigorous research program through grants to universi-

ties, scientific societies and the National Academy of Sciences, in-

dustry, and agencies of the Federal Government and established

an Advisory Panel for Weather Modification, which reported to