Science, and transportation united states senate

the Foundation. A series of 10 annual reports on weather modifica-

tion were published by the NSF for fiscal years 1959 through 1968.

Recognizing the severe shortage of trained personnel, the NSF es-

tablished the policy of financing graduate and postgraduate train-

ing as part of its grant support program, stating in its second annual

report, "In the field of weather modification our greatest deficiency

today is skilled manpower." 55

At the working level, representatives of nine Government agencies

were called together by the NSF to form the Interagency Conference

on Weather Modification to afford a mechanism for communication on

weather modification activities and to plan and develop cooperative

32 See. for example. S. 86 and companion House bills. H.R. 3631. H.R. '5232, H.R. 5954,

and H.R. 5958. introduced in the 85th Congress during 1957.

53 Droessler. Earl G.. "Weather Modification : Federal Policies. Funding from all Sources,

Interagency Coordination," background paper prepared for the U.S. Department of Com-

merce Weather Modification Advisorv Board. Raleigh, N.C., Mar. 1, 1977, p. 1.

"Ibid., p. 2.

5r> National Science Foundation. "Weather Modification ; Second Annual Report for Fiscal

Year ended June 30, 1960." Washington. D.C.. U.S. Government Printing Office, June 16,

1961. p. 1.

216

projects. 56 Joint Federal projects were established between the Foun-

During this period the Congress, wanting to support more applied re-

search directed toward a major problem, such as requirements for more

precipitation in the West, appropriated funds for what was to become

a major weather modification program under the Bureau of Reclama-

tion in the Department of the Interior. The Foundation warmly en-

dorsed the Bureau of Reclamation's "Project Sky water" and has since

funded many of the research projects associated with this program. 57

Fi deral structure; 1968-77

The lead agency responsibilities and authorities of the National

Science Foundation acquired in 1958 under Public Law 85-510 were

abrogated by Public Law 90-407, enacted July 18, 1968, which became

effective September 1, 1968. A lapse in Federal policy and Federal

structure has since occurred as a result of congressional and executive

inaction, although after a hiatus of over 3 years, some responsibility

was given to XOAA in 1971; namely, that for collecting and dis-

seminating information on weather modification projects in the United

States. This requirement, directed by Public Law 92-205, of Decem-

ber 18, 1971, has been the single Federal weather modification function

prescribed by law until 1976, when Public Law 94-490 required the

Secretary of Commerce to conduct a study to recommend a national

policy and a research program in weather modification. The lead

agency responsibility has never been reassigned, and Federal leader-

ship for research purposes is dispersed among the several agencies.

The only semblance of weather modification leadership in the Fed-

eral structure during this period has been through the coordination

mechanism of the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sci-

ences (ICAS). The ICAS has established some policy guidelines and

has sponsored activities, such as the annual interagency weather modi-

fication conferences, intended to foster cooperation among agency

programs. It has not assumed a management role nor has it sought to

intervene in the budgeting processes by which the several agency pro-

grams are supported. The activities of the ICAS are discussed in more

detail in a section to follow on coordination of Federal weather modi-

fication activities.

Future Federal organization for weather modification

The present intensive study underway within the Department of

Commerce, as directed by the National Weather Modification Policy

Act of 1976, Public Law 94-490, mav be laying the groundwork for a

clear Federal policy in weather modification, after a 10-year lapse in

Federal leadership and two decades after the first major Federal

wpp.ther modification study wns submitted to the President and the

Concrress. The new approach will benefit from scientific and technical

advnn^os as well as the greater attention which has been given in recent

54 t< n annual interaerpnev conferences on weather modification wore sponsored by the

National Seience Foundation throujrh 10f»S. Since that year, when the lead asrency role was

f n1 - Pn from t | lfl -yQ-p r, v public Law 00 407. the annual interagency conference has been

sponsored by the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (TCAS>. The 11th

conference sponsored by ICAS. was conducted by the NSF at t^e request of ICAS : banning

with tbe 12th. the annual conference have been conducted by NO A A. at the request of ICAS,

th %°Pr C ^ess1 — "^Weather Modification: Federal Policies, Funding from all Sources, Inter-

agency Coordination," 1977, p. 4.

217

years to legal, social, economic, ecological, and international aspects

established by the Congress following the study (very likely during

the 96th Congress) will be a reorganized or reconstituted Federal

structure for leading and managing the Federal activities in weather

modification.

Kecognizing that most studies of the past decade have proposed solv-

ing the apparent fragmentation of Federal projects and responsibil-

ities by redesignating a lead agency, and also observing some of the

objections and shortcomings of such a designation, the Commerce De-

partment's Weather Modification Advisory Board has considered vari-

ous options for structuring the Federal program. One possible option

the Board is considering in its study is the creation of a special agency

for weather modification, "with a mandate to learn what needs to be

learned about weather modification and to insure regulation of its

practice," 58 The new agency would "plan, budget, spur, supervise, and

continually evalute a Federal program of research and development,

designed to enhance the atmospheric environment." Under this concept

existing agency projects would become part of a coordinated Federal

effort, and future projects would be presented to the Congress and to

the Executive "as an understandable part of a coherent R and D

strategy." 59

The Advisory Board has had difficulty in deciding where such a new

agency should be placed in the executive structure. Presumably it could

be made part of an existing structure or it could be established as a

"semi-autonomous" agency attached to an existing department for ad-

ministrative purposes and support. With the creation of a Department

of Natural Resources, as has been proposed, a logical departmental

home for the suggested weather modification agency would be found.

The Board further suggests that such a new agency, regardless of its

location in the Federal structure, should work closely with a small

(five- to nine-member) Advisory Board, composed of people ac-

quainted with atmospheric sciences, user needs, operational realities,

advantages of costs and benefits, and "the broader national and inter-

national issues involved." 60

The current thinking of the Weather Modification Advisory Board

also includes a laboratory center as part of the proposed new agency,

one newly established or an existing Federal laboratory converted to

weather modification research. While some research and development

would be conducted "in house" by the agency, portions of the coordi-

nated research effort would be allocated to other Federal agencies or by

contract to universities and other non-Federal institutions. 61

Droessler has also observed increased individual support for the con-

cept of a weather modification national laboratory. lie suggests that

the location of such a center in the Federal structure should be deter-

mined by its principal research thrust. If basic scientific research, such

as that which "undergirds" weather modification applications, is pri-

mary, he suggests that NSF should have the responsibility. If the focus

of the new proposed laboratory should be on severe storm amelioration,

58 Cleveland, "A U.S. Policy to Enhance the Atmospheric Environment," discussion paper

by thp Weather Modification Advisorv Board. Oct. 21, 1977, pp. 23-24.

69 Ibid., p. 24.

60 Ibid.

61 Ibid., p. 25.

218

Finally, if research of the new laboratory is aimed toward the impacts

of weather modification on agriculture, the U.S. Department of Agri-

culture should be directed to establish and manage the facility. 62

A number of bills were introduced in the Congress from time to time

which would have established within one agency or another a single

agency with responsibility for managing a Federal weather modifica-

tion program. For example, S. 2875 in the 89th Congress would have

created in the Department of the Interior a central scientific and en-

gineering facility and regional research and operations centers. In the

same Congress, S. 2916, which did pass the Senate, would have pro-

vided much the same structure within the Department of Commerce.

Both bills permitted weather modification research in support of mis-

sions by the other Federal agencies, but established a focal point for

research and for other management functions in the Department of the

Interior or the Department of Commerce, respectively. 63

In addition to management of Federal research programs and co-

ordination of these programs, the Federal weather modification orga-

nizational structure must also be concerned with other functions. These

could include planning, project review, data collection and monitoring,

regulation, licensing, and indemnification. The institutional arrange-

ment within which these activities are handled could be part of the

agency with prime research responsibility, or some or all of these func-

tions could be assigned elsewhere. For example, the State Department

will presumably continue to exercise appropriate authorities with

regard to international programs or U.S. programs with potential

impacts on other nations, though responsibility for cooperation on

the scientific and technical aspects of such projects would quite natur-

ally be given to one or more research agencies. Assignment of some of

these functions might be to other agencies or to special commissions,

established as in some States, to deal with regulation, licensing, and

indemnification.

Grant argues that "the extensive multidisciplinary nature of and

the potential impact on large segments of society by weather modifica-

tion demands great breadth in the organizational structure to manage

the development of weather modification." 64 He continues :

In view of these complex involvements and interactions, it is clear that the

governmental organizational structure needs to he much broader than the mis-

sion interests of the respective Federal agencies. Presently, coordination is

effected through ICAS. More is required. The present program in weather modi-

fication is too fragmented for optimal utilization of resources to concentrate on

all aspects of the priority problems. Weather modification has not moved to the

stage where research should be concentrated in the respective mission agencies.

Many of the priorities and problems are basic to weather modification itself

and must l>e resolved and tested before emphasis is placed on the respective mis-

62 Droessler, "Weather Modification : Federal Policies, Funding From All Sources, Inter-

agency Coordination." 1!)77. pp. 10—11.

•> For analysis of these and other related bills concerned with Federal organization for

weather modification see Johnson. Ralph W.. "Federal Organization for Control of Weather

Modification." In Howard J. Taubenfeld (editor), "Controlling the Weather," New York.

Dunellen. 1970. pp. 145-158.

64 Grant. Lewis (>.. testimony in : U.S. Congress, House of Representatives, Committee on

Science and Technology, Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere. "Weather

Modification." hearings, 04th Cong.. 2d sees., June 15-18, 1977. Washington, D.C.. U.S.

Government Frinting Office, 1976, p. 290.

219

levels, retards adequate progress toward the goal of problem resolution and de-

velopment of application capability.

I suggest that a commission-type approach be considered. This would permit

representation of various weather modification missions by researchers, users,

and the general public. Such a commission could develop a comprehensive and

coordinated national weather modification policy and program of weather modi-

fication research. ... A positive national program and funding levels could be

recommended to Congress. I believe that management of the program through

this commission for the next five to ten years should also be considered. The

highest standards possible and the broadest representation possible should be

required for this commission and its staff.

As the technological capability develops and can respond to various uses, the

lull responsibility for the respective uses could transfer to the mission agencies

at that time. Continued involvement by the agencies during the development

stages could make a smooth transition possible. If the national research and

development program is organized and managed through such a commission, the

commission should not have the dual role of regulating weather modification at

the same time it has the responsibility for its developmient. 85

Changnon has recommended an almost total reorganization of the

Federal weather modification structure in order to handle better the

current major research responsibilities; evaluation efforts needed im-

mediately, which are not being addressed ; and readiness to perform re-

sponsibilities of the near future, including operations, regulation, and

compensation. He suggests tw r o approaches to this reorganization,

shown schematically in figure l. 66

In his first approach, Changnon would place all weather modifica-

tion activities, except regulation and compensation, in one agency

(Agency X, fig. la), either a new agency or a division of one exist-

ing. From a weather modification and a user standpoint the likely can-

didates proposed among existing agencies are the U.S. Department of

Agriculture and XOAA. This primary agency would develop a na-

tional laboratory which would both conduct research and development

and also subcontract such efforts. The agency and its laboratory would

be responsible for program design, monitoring, and evaluation of all

experimental and operational projects and would report results to the

regulatory agency (Agency Y, fig. la). The laboratory would also

be responsible for Federal operational efforts and for development of

guidelines for private operators. Close interaction would be required

with the States, private business, and the public within operational

regions. Agency Y could be a new agency or an existing one, such as

the Environmental Protection Agency or XOAA. provided that NOAA

is not also chosen as Agency X. Agency Y would also develop and ad-

minister compensatory mechanisms to benefit those identified as losers

as a result of weather modification programs. This first approach would

also include a Presidential board or commission of appointed non-

Federal members with statutory responsibility for reporting annually

to the President and the Congress on all weather modification activi-

ties performed by Agencies X and Y. 67

05 Ibid., pp. 290-291.

66 Changnon. Stanley A.. Jr.. "The Federal Role in Weather Modification." background

paper prepared for the U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Modification Advisory

Board. Urbana. 111., Mar. 9. 1977, pp. 24-27.

87 Ibid., pp. 25-26.

220

221

to the first, but current research activities would be retained with some

Federal agencies (see fig. lb). Agency Y would handle regulatory-

compensatory functions as in the first approach, and a Presidential

board or commission would make critical annual assessments of the

progress and activities in all agencies as well as report annually to the

President and the Congress. A major agency, new or existing, would

have direct responsibility for its own activities as well as the research

programs of other Federal agencies. Thus, existing programs of the

Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, and Defense and of the Na-

tional Science Foundation would continue, but under direction of

Agency X, each program directed toward specific agency missions.

Other agencies currently involved in weather modification — the De-

partments of Energy, Interior, and Transportation, and the National

Aeronautics and Space Administration — would be stripped of their

programs. 68

In his 1970 paper, Johnson explored some of the more plausible in-

stitutional arrangements that could be designed for Federal manage-

ment of weather modification. 69 He identified the various functions

into which such management responsibilities could be divided and at-

tempted to show the optimum ways that each function might be

handled. A major point which Jolmson made then, which is still ap-

propriate today, is that the Federal institutional arrangements should

depend on the pace of the development of weather modification tech-

nology. Thus, establishment of a full-blown structure dealing with all

weather modification functions may not yet be advisable, even in 1973.

COORDINATION AND ADVISORY MECHANISMS FOR FEDERAL WEATHER

MODIFICATION PROGRAMS

Introduction

There are a number of formal and informal mechanisms by which

the Federal research program in weather modification is coordinated,

and there exist a variety of panels, committees, and organizations —

some governmental and some quasi-governmental — which provide ad-

vice and a forum for exchange of information on various aspects of

weather modification. Coordination is also achieved through profes-

sional society meetings and through workshops on specific problems

which are scheduled by Federal agencies from time to time.

Much of the coordination of weather modification projects attempted

by agency representatives consists of exchange of information on the

scope and the funding of the different agency programs, this ex-

change accomplished through meetings of committees, conferences,

and panels. Through such exchange it is expected that consensus can

be approached and coordination achieved.

Various opinions have been expressed on the degree to which Fed-

eral weather modification programs are coordinated. According to

Droessler, "The weather modification research program probably is

as well coordinated as any research effort within the Federal Govern-

68 Ibid., p. 26-27.

89 Johnson, "Federal Organization or Control of Weather Modification," 1970, pp. 131-1S0.

34-SoT— 79 17

222

ment." 70 Dr. Alfred J. Eggers, Jr., former Assistant Director for Re-

In summary, the current programs in weather modification of the various

agencies appear to be sufficiently well coordinated to avoid unknowing duplica-

tions of efforts, but not so rigidly coordinated as to unduly narrow the range

of scientific approaches being taken to respond to several agency missions.

Weather modification is not a well-developed technology. Given the current

state of the art, the current mechanisms of coordination appear to be appropriate

and adequate. 71

A contrary view was stated in the report by the General Accounting

Office (GAO) on the need for a national program in weather modifica-

tion research :

A national program in weather modification research is necessary to effectively

control activities of the agencies involved. Although this need was recognized as

early as 1966. the organizations established to coordinate these activities have

not developed and implemented an effective overall national program. Although

coordinating groups have tried to develop national programs, their implementa-

tion has not been successful. The present fragmentation of research efforts has

made it extremely difficult for agencies to conduct effective field research which,

in the case of weather modification, must precede operational activities. 72

In answer to this conclusion of the GAO report that the Federal

weather modification research program was not effectively coordi-

nated, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) replied that:

The point on ineffective coordination of research projects is not supported by

fact. Weather modification research is well coordinated by the Interdepartmen-

tal Committee on Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS). ICAS meets monthly and pro-

vides members and observers the opportunity to exchange information in a timely

manner. Interdepartmental coordination of weather modification activities has

been, in our opinion, achieved through the efforts of ICAS and the member

agencies in an exemplary manner. 7 ''

The several means, formal and informal, by which the Federal

weather modification research program is coordinated, or by which

advice on agency programs is provided, are identified and discussed in

the following subsections.

The Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS)

The principal mechanism for coordination of Federal weather

modification programs has been the ICAS. Weather modification

has been a principal concern of the committee since its inception in

1959, and it was recently stated that the ICAS has spent more effort