Science, and transportation united states senate

dealing with weather modification than with any other single topic. 74

This close tie and continued interest by the ICAS on weather modi-

fication was instilled from its beginning, when it incorporated func-

tions of an existing interagency weather modification committee.

In 195s. the National Science Foundation recognized the need for

a formal interagency coordinating mechanism as part of its newly

70 Droessler. "Weather Modification : Federal Policies, Funding From All Sources, Inter-

agency Coordination," 1!*77. p. 14.

71 Eggers, testimony before House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee

on the Environment and the Atmosphere. 107(5. pp. 111-112.

- Comptroller of the United States. "Need for a National Weather Modification Research

Propnim '* report to the Congress, General Accounting Office, B-133202, Washington, D.C.,

Aug. 23. 1974, p. 23.

Sawhlll. John C. Associate Director, Office of Management and Budget. In a letter to

Morton B. Henig, Associate Director, Manpower and Welfare Division, General Accounting

Office. Sept. 12. 1973.

74 Todd. Edward P. (Chairman of the Tn t erdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sci-

ences), in testimony at hearings on weather modification before the Subcommittee on the

Environment and the Atmosphere. Committee on Science and Technologv. U S. House of

Representatives, June 16, 1976, p. 127.

223

assigned statutory responsibilities as weather modification lead agency

fication. A year later the newly established Federal Council for Sci-

ence and Technology (FCST) considered the need for a committee to

cover atmospheric sciences; and, upon agreement between the Presi-

dent's science adviser and the Director of the XSF, the existing Inter-

departmental Committee on Weather Modification was formally

reconstituted as the FCST's Interdepartmental Committee for At-

mospheric Sciences. ICAS held its first meeting September 9, 1959. 75 > 76

The National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and

Priorities Act of 1976 (Public Law 94-282) was^ signed May 11, 1976,

creating the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering,

and Technology (FCCSET) . Under the new law, the ICAS, a subcom-

mittee of the former FCST. should have ceased to function, since

the parent council was abolished. Prior to the signing of Public Law

94-282, however, the FCST Chairman addressed a letter to all FCST

subcommittee chairmen, indicating that these committees should con-

tinue their normal activities until such time as a new organizational

structure for FCCSET could be established and begin to function.

Subsequently, the FCCSET established several supporting subcom-

mittees, one of which is the Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere

(CAO) . The ICAS was formally adopted by the CAO on a temporary

basis, pending creation of its own subcommittee structure. Conse-

quently, the ICAS lias continued to hold meetings and published its

customary annual report, under authority given by the Chairman of

the CAO. 77 Although the future of the ICAS is uncertain, a recent

survey indicated that its members favored continuation of an *'ICAS-

like' ? activity. The committee thus intends to meet and conduct business,

at a reduced level of activity, until the CAO organization becomes firm

and is in full operation. 78

The coordination activities of the ICAS for the Federal weather

modification research program has been particularly valuable, espe-

cially since 1968, when the Xational Science Foundation was relieved

of its lead agency role. Prior to that time the XSF had provided leader-

ship to the Federal program in a number of ways. Beginning in 1969

the ICAS has continued the sponsorship of the annual Interagency

Conference on Weather Modification, which the XSF had initiated 10

years earlier. This annual conference is a "partial mechanism to pro-

mote effective communications and a source of shared responsibility

among the Washington program managers and the field program

managers." 79 These conferences provide a forum for exchanging in-

75 Special Commission on Weather Modification. '"Weather and Climate Modification," re-

port to the National Science Foundation. XSF 66-3, Washington. D.C.. Dec. 20. 1965, p. 131.

76 A discussion of the history and activities of the Federal Council for Science and Tech-

nology is found in the following report: Bates. Dorothy M. (coordinator). Interagency Co-

ordination of Federal Scientific Research and Development : The Federal Council for Sci-

ence and Technology. Report prepared by the Science Policy Research Division of the Con-

gressional Research Service for the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Scientific

Planning and Analysis. Committee on Science and Technology. U.S. House of Representa-

tives. Committee Print. Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1976. 447 pp. Of spe-

cial interest in this report is a case history of the ICAS: Morrison. Robert E. The Inter-

departmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences : a case history. App. Ln pp. 381-396.

(Included in the case history is a list of ICAS publications through July 1976.)

" Federal Coordinating Council for Science. Engineering, and Technology. Committee on

Oceans and Atmosphere. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences. National

Atmospheric Sciences Program : fiscal year 1978. ICAS 21-FY7S. September 1977, 96 pp.

7S Ibid., p. iii.

"9 Drossier. Weather Modification: Federal Policies. Funding From All Sources Inter-

agency Coordination, p. 14.

224

formation on progress in past years, plans for the coming year,

problems encountered. The annual conferences, under ICAS sponsor-

ship, beginning with the 11th in 1969, have been hosted, at the request

of the ICAS, by the NSF and by NOAA. The NSF hosted the 11th

conference, and XOAA has hosted all of those since, starting with

the 12th.

At regular meetings of the ICAS, major weather modification pro-

grams of member agencies are frequently reviewed through project

briefings by Washington and field program managers. The ICAS has

formed standing and ad hoc panels to which are assigned responsibili-

ties for specific facets of the weather modificaion program. Panels in

the past have worked on problems such as legislation on weather modi-

fication, a national plan for the Federal weather modification program,

and a plan for accelerating progress in weather modification. These

panels address topics as requested by the parent committee and make

recommendations to the ICAS for actions as required. Two specific

ICAS reports have dealt with the subject. 80 ' 81

Besides formal coordination afforded by the annual conferences, dis-

cussions at ICAS meetings, and studies undertaken by ICAS panels,

there is also included an account of the Federal weather modification

program as an appendix to the annual ICAS report. 82 In the early

years of the ICAS member agencies reported their funding for the

general support of atmospheric sciences only in two broad categories,

meteorology and aeronomy. Beginning with fiscal year 1963 the agen-

cies began to identify specific funds for weather modification, and this

information has been included since in the annual ICAS report along

with brief descriptions of member agency programs.

It was at the request of the ICAS and with the cooperation of the

Secretary of Commerce that Federal agencies began to report their

weather modification research activities to XOAA as of November 1,

1973. 83 Public Law 92-205 requires such reporting by all nonfederal!}'

sponsored weather modification projects in the United States and its

territories. 84 This voluntary reporting by Federal agencies, initiated

by the ICAS, thus assured that the central source of information on

weather modification projects in the United States is reasonably

complete.

In its 1971 annual report, the ICAS identified selected major re-

search projects in weather modification which were designated as na-

tional projects. 85 These national projects were formulated by the

ICAS members through combination of agency projects in each of

seven categories of weather modification assigning lead agency respon-

sibilities in most cases to that agency with the most significant ongoing

80 Newell. Homer E. A recommended national program in weather modification. Federal

Council for Science and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sci-

ences ICAS report No. 10a. Washington. D.C., November 1966. 93 pp.

81 Federal Council for Science and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmos-

pheric Sciences. ICAS report No. 15a. Washington. D.C., June 1971, 50 pp.

82 The most recent account is found in the latest ICAS annual report : Federal Coordinat-

ing Council for Science. Engineering, and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for

Atmospheric Sciences. ICAS 21-FY7S. Pp. 87-94.

83 Federal Council for Science and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmos-

pheric Sciences. National Atmospheric Sciences Program : fiscal rear 1975. ICAS 18-FY 75

Washington, DC. May 1974. n. iv.

M See earlier discussions on Public Law 92 205 under congressional activities, p. 197. and

under tbe administration of the reporting program by NOAA. p. 2'.V2.

Federal Council for Science and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmos-

pheric Sciences. National Atmospheric Sciences Program : fiscal year 1972. ICAS report

No. 15. March 1971, pp. 5-6.

225

project (s) within each category. The proposed national projects and

1. National Colorado River Basin pilot project. — Bureau of Recla-

mation, Department of the Interior : To test the feasibility of apply-

ing a cloud seeding technology, proven effective under certain condi-

tions, to a river basin for a winter season to augment the seasonal

snowpack.

'2. National hurricane modification project. — National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce : To develop

a seeding technology and associated mathematical models to reduce

the maximum surface winds associated with hurricanes.

3. National lightning suppression project. — Forest Service, Depart-

ment of Agriculture : To develop a seeding technology and associated

physical and mathematical models to reduce the frequency of forest

fire-starting lightning strokes from cumulonimbus clouds.

4. National cumulus modification project. — National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce : To develop

a seeding technology and associated mathematical models to promote

the growth of cumulus clouds in order to increase the resulting natural

rainfall in areas where needed.

5. National hail research experiment. — National Science Founda-

tion : To develop a seeding technology and associated mathematical

models to reduce the incidence of damaging hailfall from cumulonim-

bus clouds without adversely affecting the associated rainfall.

6. National Great Lakes snoio redistribution project. — National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce :

To develop a seeding technology and associated mathematical models

to spread the heavy snowfall of the Great Lakes coastal region farther

inland.

tration, Department of Transportation : To develop seeding or other

technology and associated physical and mathematical models to reduce

the visibility restrictions imposed by warm and cold fogs where and to

the extent needed. 86

Although most of these national projects were continued for at least

a while, some of them failed to materialize, as hoped, as truly national

projects. Few received the expected interagency support and planning

effort envisioned; however, in spite of these deficiencies, some were

pursued by the lead agencies, largely as major single-agency projects.

The National Hail Research Experiment, conducted by the National

Science Foundation perhaps came closest to a truly national project

and. with assistance from other Federal agencies, continued through

1976. 87 A critique of the national projects in weather modification was

included in the 1974 report of the General Accounting Office on the

need for a national program in weather modification research. 88

In answer to charges that the Federal weather modification research

effort has been poorly coordinated, a conclusion of various studies that

have been made, the Chairman of the ICAS recently said, "Within the

IOAS we have considered coordination as it is defined, namely, har-

» Ibid.

Shc discussion of the national bail research project under following section on the pro-

gram of the National Science Foundation, p. 274 ff.

^Comptroller General of the United States. Need for a national weather modification

research program. B-133202, 1974. Pp. 16-22.

226

using that definition, the weather modification research program is

probably as well coordinated as any effort within the Government, with

the possible exception of programs that are entirely within the purview

of a single agency. The critics of the ICAS coordination effort, how-

ever, seem to nave been interpreting coordination as including manage-

ment ; the ICAS is not a management agent.'' 89

The National Academy of Sciences/ Committee on Atmospheric Sci-

ences (N AS/GAS)

Advice has been provided to the Federal Government through ad-

visory panels, intensive studies, and published reports on weather

modification, by the National Academy of Sciences. The Committee

on Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) was organized under the National

Research Council of the Academy in 1956, with the stated purpose of

addressing . . itself to the task of viewing in broad perspective the

present activities in research and education, the exchange of informa-

tion and related matters as they affect the status of the field and future

progress toward a balanced national program in the atmospheric

sciences, and participation in international programs." 90

At the request of, and sponsored by, the National Science Founda-

tion, a conference was organized and conducted by the NAS in 1959,

in which meteorologists, mathematicians, and statisticians met to ex-

amine needs in weather modification experiments. The report on this

Skyline Conference on the Design and Conduct of Experiments in

Weather Modification, 91 which had been held in the Shenandoah Na-

tional Park in Virginia, made a strong plea for careful statistical

design of weather modification experiments, pointing out the need for

long-term programs, standardization of design, the need for basic

research in cloud physics, and the requirement for cooperation between

meteorologists and statisticians.

In March 1963, the CAS appointed a Panel on Weather and Climate

Modification, "to undertake a deliberate and thoughtful review of the

present status and activities in this field and of its potential and limi-

tations in the future." 92 The Panel was chaired by Dr. Gordon J. F.

MacDonald and was comprised of 11 Government and non-Govern-

ment members. The Academy Panel worked closely with the NSF's

Special Commission on Weather Modification, which had been estab-

Lished in 1964. Three reports were subsequently published by the Panel,,

based on in-depth studies which had been undertaken.

The first of these, "Scientific Problems of Weather Modification,"

appeared in 1964; 03 the second, "Weather and Climate Modification:

Problems and Prospects," was published in 1966; 94 and the third,

89 Todd. Testimony before House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on

the Environment and the Atmosphere. June 197fi. p. S7.

90 National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering. Institute of Medicine;

National Research Council. Organization and members: 1975-1976. Washington, D.C. Octo-

ber 1975. P. 81.

n National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. Report of the Skyline Con-

ference on the Design ami Conduct of Experiments in Weather Modification. NAS— NBC Pub-

lication 742. Washington. D.C, l!tn'). 24 pp.

92 National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. Committee on Atmospheric

Sciences. Weather and Climate Modification: Problems and Prospects. Volume I. summary

and recommendations. Final report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification. Pub-

lication No. 1350, Washington, D.C, I960, p. vii.

m National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. Committee on Atmospheric

Sciences Scientific Problems of Weather Modification : a Report of the Panel on Weather

and Climate Modification. NAS NRC Publication No. 1236. Washington. D.C. 1964. 56 pp.

ot National Academy of Sciences. Publication No. 1350. 1906. In two volumes. 40 + 212 pp.

227

"Weather Modification : Problems and Progress," came out in 1973. 95

Academy studies were conducted in the 1970's which, in part, addressed

aspects of weather modification. The Committee on Atmospheric Sci-

ences surveyed the field in a chapter in its 1971 publication, "The

Atmospheric Sciences and Man's Needs ; Priorities for the Future." 96

In 1976 a report was prepared by the Committee on Climate and

Weather Fluctuations and Agricultural Production of the Board on

Agriculture and Eenewable Resources. A full chapter is devoted to

weather modification in this report, entitled "Climate and Food;

Climatic Fluctuation and U.S. Agricultural Production." 97

Project Stormfury, a major hurricane modification project of the

Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-

istration (NO A A), 98 from its inception has had an advisory panel

composed of prominent scientists, primarily meteorologists. Currently,

the panel is appointed by and operates under the auspices of the Na-

tional Academy of Sciences, Committee on Atmospheric Sciences.

Members of the Stomfurv Advisory Panel all come from either the

academic community or from private industry. Not only does the Panel

review program results and experimental designs and make recom-

mendations, but it also conducts periodic scientific symposia before

larger groups. A recent program review was held in September 1977,

and a report on the review is in preparation.

The National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere

(NAG OA)

This advisory committee was created by Public Law 92-125 on

August 16, 1971, and was to be advisory to both the President and the

Congress on the Nation's atmospheric and marine affairs and to the

Secretary of Commerce with respect to the programs of the National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Among other

duties, the committee was charged with assessing the status of U.S.

atmospheric and oceanic activities and with submitting an annual re-

port of its findings and recommendations to the President and the

Congress. The Secretary of Commerce was also required, on behalf of

the executive branch, to prepare comments on the NACOA recom-

mendations. These comments are appended to each of the annual

NACOA reports.

As originally constituted by Public Law 95-125, NACOA included

25 members, all non-Federal, appointed by the President, who also'

designated one of the members as chairman and one as vice chairman.

Each department and agency of the Federal Government concerned

with atmospheric and marine matters was to designate a senior policy

official to participate as observer and to offer assistance as required.

The Secretary of Commerce was to make available such staff, person -

95 National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. Committee on Atmospheric

Science^ Weather Modification : Problems and Progress. ISBN 0-309-02121-9. Washing-

ton, D.C., 1973. 280 pp.

98 National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. Committee on Atmospheric

£ c .V^ ce ^T£ e . Atmospheric Scien ces and Man's Needs; Priorities for the Future. ISBN

0-300-01912-5. Washington, D.C., May 1971, pp. 42-61.

97 National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. Board on Agriculture and

Renewable Resources. Climate and Food ; Climatic Fluctuation and U.S. Agricultural Pro-

duction. ISBN O-309-02522-2. Washington, D.C.. 1976 pp. 131-162

ps For discussion of Project Stormfury, see p. 296 under weather modification pro-rams

Of the Department of Commerce.

228

nel, information, and administrative services as reasonably required

and its appropriation authorization was increased successively by

Public Laws 92-657 and 94-69 of October 25, 1972, and August 16,

1975, respectively. The 1971 act was repealed, however, by Public Law

95-63, of July 5, 1977, which effectively disbanded the previous com-

mittee and established a new NACOA. Although many of the provi-

sions of the new law were similar to the previous one, the size of the

committee was reduced from 25 to 18 members, appointed by the

President .with the stipulation that members must be eminently quali-

fied in knowledge and expertise in areas of direct concern to the com-

mittee, that is, in atmospheric- and marine-oriented disciplines.

Since its inception, the posture of NACOA has been to concentrate

its studies on those important issues where it can make a significant

contribution, recognizing that an attempt to review and evaluate every

program and issue within its purview of responsibility could result

in treating none of them well and could possibly duplicate what others

are capable of doing better." Among other important topics, weather

modification has been the subject of examination, deliberation, and