Science, and transportation united states senate

prehensive state-of-the-art review of the field: however, the appear-

ance of the 1966 National Academy study 64 negated the immediate ne-

cessity for such a reexamination. Nearly 3 years later Rand did publish

such a review, recognizing that there had been "sufficient progre-s in

the overall field of weather modification research to now warrant a new

overview." 65

The authors of the report stressed the following points: "(1) the

possibility of inadvertent weather or climate modification is rapidly

becoming a probability, as human effects on the atmosphere and the

surface of the planet grow at an increasing rate: (2) progress in

weather modification research continues to be hampered by the preva-

lent lack of cohesive effort by both theoreticians and experimenters;

(3) computers of advanced design and increased capacity will handle

atmospheric models of considerably greater sophistication than in the

past; and (-1) this is a not-to-be-neglected opportunity for interactive

research — constant two-way feedback from theory to experiment to

theory, with dynamic atmospheric models facilitating each advance." 66

General and specific recommendations concerning what they consid-

ered to be the most urgently needed research areas and required instru-

mentation developments were included in the report.

In 1965, following a request from the Chief of the U.S. Weather

Bureau, Dr. Robert M. White, the Bureau published an "in-house"

report on its role in weather modification research. 07 In the report it

was recognized thai research responsibilities extend beyond considera-

tion of scientific and technical problems; however, it dealt primarily

with meteorology, leaving to other ongoing studies the treatment of

administrative, 'military, international, and ecological aspects, al-

though some legal and legislative questions were discussed. r,s It was

02 Taubenfeld, NSF 66-7. „ - m _ _

°3 Special Commission on Weather Modification. XSF 66-3. 1966, pp. 7-8.

•* National Academy of Sciences, publication Xo. 1350, 1966.

« Staff of the Weather Modification Research Project of the Rand Corn . Weather Modi-

fication Progress and the Need for Interactive Research." The Rand Corp., memorandum

RM-5835-NSF. Santa Monica. Calif., October 1968, 88 pp.

^GdVman Y)onald L., .Tames R. Hibbs. and Paul I,. Lnskin. "Weather and Climate Morti-

fication," a" report to the Chief. U.S. Weather Bureau. U.S. Department of Commerce,

Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C, July 10, 1965, 46 pp.

« Ibid., p. 1.

241

made clear that the report was not intended to be statement of policy

ment, but was rather to be considered as a contribution to the national

discussion of the future direction of weather modification in the United

States. 69

Another one of the many studies appearing in 1966 was a report by

the Commerce Department's Environmental Science Services Admin-

istration (ESSA), the organization which preceded the present Na-

tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (XOAA). 70 Prepared

in response to a request by the ICAS, the report was prepared by an

"in-house" task group to define an expanded ESSA program in light

of the recommendations of the XAS Committee on Atmospheric Sci-

ences Panel on Weather and Climate Modification and those of the

XSF Special Commission on Weather Modification, which appeared

in reports that year. 71 ' 72 It outlined a 5-year program of research for

the fiscal years 1968 through 197:2, with projects ranging from large-

scale field experiments to those in more basic aspects of atmospheric

science pertinent to weather modification.

A report was published in 1968 by the U.S. Department of Agricul-

ture, as part of the continuing joint research planning by the Depart-

ment and State agricultural experiment stations. 73 The recommended

program of research and development in weather modification for

agriculture and forestry supplemented the national program of re-

search for agriculture. The proposed program addressed direct modifi-

cation of the weather and the resulting biological, economic, and so-

cial consequences of such activity. It was intended to contribute to

knowledge and technology needed "in the total enterprise of agricul-

ture and forestry" and to "provide the basis for essential decisionmak-

ing on weather modification programs affecting nearly every aspect of

agriculture and forestry. 74 The report discussed national goals, defined

a national research and development program for agencies of the

Department of Agriculture and the State agricultural experiment

stations, and reviewed the necessary research resources, including man-

power, facilities, and organization. For each major phase of the pro-

posed research activity, the report recommended levels of Federal in-

volvement and financial investment for fiscal years 1972 and 1977. 75

Federal Programs ix Weather Modification

introduction and fuxdixcr summaries

e The Federal Government has been involved in weather modifica-

tion research and development for more than 30 years. As noted ear-

lier, these research programs are scattered throughout a number of

Federal departments and agencies. They are not carried out fully in-

dependent of one another, however, since they are coordinated by man-

69 Ibid., p. iv.

70 U.S. Department of Commerce, Environmental Science Services Administration. "An

Outline of a Proposed 5-Year Plan in Weather Modification," Rockville, Md., April 1966.

66 pp.

72 Special Commission on Weather Modification. XSF 66-3.

7 3 Joint Task Force of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the State universities and

land grant colleges. "A National Program of Research for Weather Modification." U.S. De-

partment of Agriculture. Research Program Development and Evaluation Staff. Washing-

ton, D.C., January 196S, 3S pp.

7 * Ibid , p. 1.

73 Ibid., pp. 6-8.

242

agers at the program level, especially through the Interdepartmental

engineers at the working level through a number of mechanisms in-

cluding interagency joint projects and the activities of professional

organizations.

The Federal weather modification program has been considered to

be composed of the several agency programs identified as weather

modification by the member agencies of the IOAS and reported as

such to the ICAS. According to the latest IOAS annual report. 7 ' 3

weather modification programs will be sponsored during fiscal year

1978 by six departments and agencies: these are the Departments of

Agriculture. Commerce, Defense, and Interior; the National Science

Foundation; and the Energy Eesearch and Development Administra-

tion (part of the Department of Energy as of October 1. 1977) . As late

as fiscal year 1976 the Department of Transportation also reported a

program in weather modification, and the National Aeronautics and

Space Administration (XASA) identified a research program in warm

fog dispersal through fiscal year 1973. The Environmental Protection

Agency (EPA) supports research on inadvertent weather change as

a joint sponsor of the METROMEX project in St. Louis and vicinity. 77

but does not choose to report this research as weather modification.

In the early years of the ICAS member agencies reported their fund-

ing for support of atmospheric science only in the two broad cate-

gories — meteorology and aeronomy. Beginning with fiscal year 1963,

however, there has been a discreet identification of funds for weather

modification; the total Federal effort amounted to $2.7 million that-

fiscal year. Though there have been occasional dips since then, funding

for Federal programs has increased steadily to $20.3 million for fiscal

year 1976; however, planned fiscal year 1978 funds have dropped to

$17.1 million. 78

Table 2 summarizes funding for the Federal weather modification

research program by agency and by research category, as reported to

the ICAS, for fiscal years 1976 through 1978, data for the latest year

being estimated. Figure 2 shows the course of funding from fiscal years

1966 through 1978, from ICAS data assembled by Fleagle, who has

recently reviewed the history of Federal weather modification funding

since 1946. 79 From 1946 to 1958 the Federal Government funded several

extensive field research programs, the Department of Defense provid-

ing the major support through university and industrial contracts.

Since expenditures for these programs were not reported under

weather modification, Federal funding for this period cannot be

determined. 80

78 Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences, "National Atmospheric Sci-

ences Program : Fiscal Year 197S." ICAS 21-FY78, 1977, p. 87.

77 See discussion of METROMEX under the program of the National Science Foundation,

p. 38 3 ff.

78 Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology : Committee on

Atmosnhere and Oceans ; Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences ; "Na-

tional Atmospheric Sciences Program : Fiscal Year 1978," ICAS 21-FY78, August 1977,

p. 87.

70 Fleagle, Robert G.. "An Analysis of Federal Policies in Weather Modification." Back-

sory Hoard, Seattle, March 1977, pp. 6-14.

80 Ibid., p. 6.

243

THROUGH FISCAL YEAR 1978 (ESTIMATED), BY AGENCY AND BY RESEARCH CATEGORY, AS REPORTED TO THE

INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES. (FROM ICAS 21— FISCAL YEAR 1978).

[In thousands of dollars]

Fiscal year—

1976 197T 1977 1978

Department of Agriculture

Department of Commerce.

Department of Defense:

Army... .

Navy..

Air Force

Depa rtment of Transportation

Energy Research and Development Administration

National Science Foundation

Total....

Precipitation modification.

Fop and cloud modification

Hail suppression

Lightning modification.

Hurricane and severe storm modification

Social, economic, legal and ecological studies

Inadvertent modification of weather and climate. .

Support and services.

70 21 55 20

6,334 1,146 4,577 5,001

100 119 268 190

900 175 221 210

409 112 550 575

4,649 1,632 6,446 7,613

555

6,216 1,110 5,702 2,250

20,329 4,589 18,974 17,119

3,382 1,057 4,881 5,900

2,164 665 1,906 1,868

3,080 488 2,950 1,180

70 21 55 20

1,961 461 1,911 1,810

718 135 687 450

4,834 889 3,693 4,158

4,120 873 2,891 1,733

g * . \ I I I I I I | I I I | |

66 68 70 72 74 76 78

FISCAL YEAR

Figure 2. — The course of Federal weather modification funding (planning budg-

ets and actual expenditures) from fiscal years 1966 to 1978, as reported by

the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences. (Adapted from

Fleagle, 1977, with latest data from ICAS 21-FY78.)

244

In the period 1958 to 1965 the XSF, as part of its lead agency

tion. Reported expenditures reached about $3 million in fiscal year

1965, although costs of aircraft, radar, and manpower provided by the

Defense Department were not identified. Beginning with fiscal year

1966, expenditures have been reported annually by the ICAS under

reasonably constant definitions and guidelines. 81

The general growth in Federal funding between fiscal years 1966

and 1972 can be seen in figure 2. Fleagle speculates that the funding-

drop following 1968 could have been a result of research curtailments

brought on by the Vietnam war or of the failure by the Congress to

designate a lead agency after that role was taken from the XSF by

Public Law 90-407. He feels that the resurgence in 1971 and 1972 could

have resulted from a new emphasis on weather modification, evidenced

by the endorsement by the Federal Council for Science and Technology

of seven national projects identified by the ICAS 82 and the appearance

of a National Academy of Sciences study which emphasized improved

management and organization. 83 In January 1973 five of the seven

national projects were suspended or terminated, owing to the exten-

sive impoundments of appropriated funds by the President. The na-

tional projects represented about one-half of the total weather modifi-

cation budget, exclusive of classified Department of Defense expendi-

tures. The partial recovery through fiscal year 1976 was based on

increases in the Department of the Interior's Project Sky water,

XOAA's preparation for resumed hurricane modification research,

and ERDA's growing research program on the inadvertent effects

of increased energy generation. 84

Fleagle notes that "* * * total funding for weather modification has

improved over the period from 1966 to 1977 largely in response to

what are perceived as the needs for prompt application of the tech-

nology," while "reductions have occurred as results of factors external

to weather modification and external to the agencies." 85

Table 3 is a summary by agency of Federal weather modification

research support since fiscal year 1963, excluding inadvertent weather

modification research. The data were compiled by Corzine of XOAA

from a variety of sources, which are identified in the table, and were

accurate as of March 1977. 86

Changnon compared the Federal weather modification funding data

with those of the entire Federal research budget. 87 From fiscal year

1973 to fiscal year 1974, for example, the total Federal research budget

increased 6.5 percent, and federally sponsored civilian research (non-

space and nonmilitary) increased 11.8 percent, while weather modifi-

cation funding dropped 21 percent. Between fiscal years 1969 and

1973. a period of rapid growth for weather modification support, civil-

ian research and development increased 120 percent while weather

modification research increased 87 percent.

61 Ibid., pp. 6-7.

S2 See n. 225 for a listing of those national projects.

83 National Academy of Sciences, National Resenrch Council. Committee on Atmospheric

Sciences. "The Atmospheric Sciences and Man's Needs ; Priorities for the Future." Wash-

ington. D.C., May 1971. 88 pp.

* l Fleagle, "An Analysis of Federal Policies in Weather Modification." 1977. pp. 7-9.

65 Ibid., p. 9.

86 Corzine. Harold; in Fred D. White (compiler). "Highlights of Solicited Opinions on

Weather Modification" (a summary) ; prepared for use by t' e Department of Commerce

Weather Modification Advisory Board, U.S. Department of Commerce. National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration. Rockville. Md.. March 1977. p. 30.

87 Changnon, "The Federal Role in Weather Modification," 1977, pp. 17-18.

245

1977.) 1 2

[In millions of dollars]

Fiscal year 3

Commerce

Interior

NSF

DOD

Others <

Total

1963

0.10

0. 96

0.05

1964

.18

1.41

.07

1965

1.26

1.45

4.97

.65

2.00

.14

7.04

1.23

3.30

.25

9.92

1.53

3.39

.18

11.30

1.14

2.73

.29

10.24

1.33

3.15

.29

11.59

3.01

3.79

.36

15.84

3.94

5. 50

.36

18.68

3. 77

6.20

.37

18.31

3.30

4. 70

.27

13.47

2.49

4.70

.09

1976 (estimate)

1977

4.64

5.60

.07

4.58

4.40

.06

1978

5.70

5 2.16

13.72

2 Excludes DOD spending for weather modification operations in Southeast Asia and ?t military airports.

3 Data based on: 1963-68, NSF Annual Reports on Weather Modification. 1969-71, ICAS Annual Reports 14, 15, and 16.

1972-76 material collected for Domestic Council Report (figures fcr 1975 and 1976 brought up to date). 1977-78, figures

submitted to NOAA.

4 Includes Transportation, EPA, and NASA.

5 Includes approximately 0.92, 2.18, and 1.56 for thermal modification of warm fog.

Federal research and development funding for fiscal years 1971

through 1976, according' to major weather modification research cate-

gory, is summarized in table 1. which also indicates the agencies under

whose programs the funds were expended. Changnon notes that these

data show that: 88

1. The greatest effort has been in precipitation modification, but with

a. general decrease in this effort with time;

•2. There has been a rapid growth of spending on inadvertent modi-

fication research;

3. Funding for fog suppression has been decreasing; and

4. In recent years the research categories receiving the major support

are precipitation (snow and rain) modification, hail suppression, and

inadvertent modification.

TABLE 4— FEDERAL WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH SUPPORT BY RESEARCH CATEGORY, FOR FISCAL YEARS

1971 THROUGH 1976. (FROM CHANGNON, 1977.)

[In millions of dollars)

Fiscal year-

Supporting

Type 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 agencies i

Precipitation modification 8.0 6.2 6.0 3.7 4.4 5.0 DOC, DOI, NSF.

Fog and cloud mcdif.cation 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.4 1.1 1 3 DOD, DOT, NSF.

Hail suppression 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 NSF

Lightning modification .9 .7 .7 .7 .2 .1 DOA, DOD, NSF.

Severe storm modif.cation .8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1 8 2 DOC

Societal-economic issues .8 .9 1.1 8 6 11 NSF DOI

Inadvertent. .6 1.7 1.7 2.9 5.2 4.9 NSF', DOT, DOC.

i DOC = Commerce; DOD = Defense; NSF=National Science Foundation; DOI = Interior ; DOT=Transportation; DOA =

Agriculture.

58 Ibid., p. 18.

246

There have been minimal Federal efforts in operational weather

parts of other operations not considered weather modification, the

expenditures are difficult to identify. These activities have included

fog dispersal at airports by the Navy and the Air Force; precipita-

tion augmentation operations by the Defense Department overseas at

the request of the Governments of Panama, Portugal, Okinawa, and

the Philippines; and 1971 efforts to reduce drought in Texas, Okla-

homa, Arizona, and Florida by the Department of the Interior, the

Air Force, and NO A A. 89 Shapley reported in 1974 that estimated

expenditures by the Defense Department between 1966 and 1972 in

attempts to increase rain during the Southeast Asia war were $21.6

million. 90

Federal weather modification programs are summarized, by agency,

in the following subsections. Included are discussions of the pro-

grams of the departments and agencies listed in table 2; the Depart-

ment of Transportation has been included since its program was ter-

minated so recently. Discussions contain not only those projects which

are underway or planned for fiscal year 1978, but also activities of

the recent past, in order to show the continuity and the development or

phasing out processes for each of the several programs.

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

Introduction

A major weather modification research program has been conducted

by the Bureau of Reclamation in the Department of the Interior since

1961. The purpose of this Atmospheric Water Resources Management

Program, also called "Project Sky water," lias been to develop and ver-

ify a practical cloud-seeding technology for increasing water supplies

in the Western States. Initiated through a congressional write-in of

$100,000 in the fiscal year 1962 Public Works appropriation, the mis-

sion of the project was simply stated as "research on increasing rain-

fall by cloud seeding." 91 Congressional direction has been almost en-

tirely through provisions in Public Works appropriation documents.

A summary of the appropriation language contained in these docu-

ments between 1961 and 1977 is found in appendix J.

Since its inception, the program has been characterized by the fol-

lowing three guidelines that were established. 92

1. It was to be an applied research program, using "engineering

approaches" rather than a basic or pure research program.

2. Scient ific expertise was to be used where it existed rather than