Science, and transportation united states senate

erative Program (HIPLEX) of Project Sky water. (Courtesy of the Bureau of

Reclamation.)

260

about 1982. Earliest attention has been given to the site at Miles City,

Mont., where seeding was first conducted during 1976, though pre-

liminary studies and measurements of cloud properties have also been

underway at the other two sites. The following accomplishments should

be noted : 9

1. Field facilities and research teams have been established at the

three field sites : Miles City, Mont. ; Goodland, Kans. ; and Big Spring,

Tex.

2. Active participation and cost-sharing with the States is underway.

4. Agricultural, economic, and environmental assessment studies are

underway in all three areas.

5. Experimental designs and data processing and analysis proce-

dures have been developed.

The experimental design for HIPLEX consists of two components —

an 'atmospheric effort and a socioeconomic and environmental effort.

Experimental components are divided into three overlapping phases,

which are consistent with sequential scientific efforts. In a fourth

phase the developed technology is to be transferred to applicable areas

in the High Plains region. 10 The details of this four-phase design and

tentative dates associated with the overall schedule are shown in

figure 7.

9 U.S. Department of the Interior, "High Plains Cooperative Program ; Progress and Plan-

ning Report No. 2," p. 5.

' 10 Ackerman, Bernice, G. L. Achtemeier, H. Appleman, Stanley A. Changnon, Jr., F. A.

Huff, G. M. Morgan, Paul T. Schickedanz, and Richard G. Semonin, "Design of the High

Plains Experiment with Specific Focus on Phase 2, Single Cloud Experiment," Illinois State

Water Survey, final report on Hiplex design project to Bureau of Reclamation, contract

14-06-D-7197. Urbana, 111., June 30, 1976, p. 7.

261

Year

74

77

Phase Atmospheric

Phase 1

Exploratory

Studies

73

82-85

86-91

Single-Cloud

Rain

Modification

Phase 3

Modification

Experiment

Phase 4

• rain characteristics

•cloud characteristics

• seeding technologies

•measurement techniques

•reasonable hypotheses

Phase 2

Modification Hypotheses

Formulated

Pre-POCE:

•test of hypotheses

•field test of seeding

techniques

• develop physical/

statistical design

Sharpen hypotheses and

select for experiment

Socio-Economic

& Environmental

Delineate

•political attitudes

• economic models

•iegal requirements

•downwind impact

•ecological impacts

•undesirable atmospheric

impacts

Monitor Impacts

and

*

I

Semi-isolated Clouds

•monitor physical changes

in clouds

•monitor precipitation

• continuous evaluation -

physical/statistical

•conclude when design

criteria are met

Evaluate

Phase 3

Hypothesis Developed

t

Monitor Impacts

design

Perform continuous evaluation

Re-define initial hypothesis

Conclude when design criteria

achieved

1

and

Disbenefits

Transfer of Technology

to High Plains states

and Other Users

Figure 7. — Flow of experimental effort in HIPLEX, showing tentative schedule

through 1991. (From Bernard A. Silverman, 1977, private communication.)

262

Bureau of Reclamation.)

HIPLEX is primarily a Skywater activity ; however, it also includes

the integrated research and supporting efforts of State agencies, local

groups, and other Federal agencies. Field research and analyses are to

be conducted primarily through contracts with private firms and uni-

versities, and the project is closely coordinated with related research

sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of

Commerce. In order to develop optimum water augmentation poten-

tial, pertinent State and local organizations in the High Plains have

joined with the Bureau in planning, funding, and implementing this

broad research program which is designed to accomplish the

following : 11

1. Develop and test more productive seeding methods and evaluate

results.

2. Resolve the remaining cloud dynamics and precipitation physics

uncertainties on seeding effects.

3. Help prepare public weather modification backgrounds and local

expertise and establish working relations among concerned non-Fed-

eral entities.

4. Assess the actual economic value of cloud seeding and the possible

social and ecological impacts.

Anticipated overall costs for State cooperation and cost-sharing in

HIPLEX is estimated to be about $3 million. This contribution

amounts to 10 to 15 percent of the total HIPLEX research budget,

11 U.S. Department of the Interior, "High Plains Cooperative Program ; Progress and

Planning Report No. 2," pp. 3-5.

263

million. 12

HIPLEX cooperative agreements for cost-sharing and field research

support have been negotiated with the States. 13 as shown in table 10.

Funding provided by some of these States and by the Bureau of Re-

clamation from fiscal year 1974: through fiscal year 1978 (estimated) is

shown in table 11.

TABLE 10.— HIPLEX COST-SHARING AND FIELD RESEARCH AGREEMENTS WITH STATES (FROM U.S. DEPARTMENT

OF INTERIOR, HIGH PLAINS COOPERATIVE PROGRAM, PROGRESS AND PLANNING REPORT NO. 2.)

Field site States Date signed

Miles City, Mont Montana... Aug. 25, 1974.

Goodland, Kans.. Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska May 29, 1974 (tristate).

Big Spring, Tex Texas Oct. 30, 1974.

TABLE 11.— SUMMARY OF HIPLEX FUNDS PROVIDED BY STATES AND BY THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, FISCAL

YEAR 1974 THROUGH FISCAL YEAR 1978 (ESTIMATED) »

State funds Bureau of

Reclamation

Fiscal years Kansas Montana Texas Totals funds

19f4 $6,000 $6,000 $1,250,000

1975 100,000 $25,000 125,000 1,821,000

1976 plus transition quarter 100, 000 81, 500 181, 500 3, 482, 000

1977 100,000 $25,000 65,000 190,000 4,110.000

1978 (estimate) 100,000 25,000 75,000 200,000 4,000,000

Total 406,000 50,000 246,500 702,500 14,663,000

i Private communication from James L. Kerr, Washington representative, Office of Atmospheric Water Resources, Bureau

of Reclamation. November 1977.

The Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project (SCPP)

This cooperative precipitation augmentation research project is

being initiated under the auspices of Project Skywater and several

State agencies in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountain Range of

California and Nevada. Cooperation with commercial cloud seeding

operators, whose efforts in this region have been funded for several

decades by west coast utility companies, is expected to be a unique part

of the project.

The Sierra project began in 1972 with preliminary planning and

discussions. Research projects along the crest of the Rocky Moun-

tains and in the Sierra Nevada have shown the possibility of increased

snowfall and consequent streamflow enhancement through seeding cer-

tain types of weather systems. Commercial projects in the Sierra have

reported consistent 5 to 8 percent streamflow increases. The Sierra

project is intended to investigate the physical basis for the reported in-

creases and the feasibility of developing a more precise technology

for snowfall enhancement for this region. 14

The Bureau of Reclamation and the State of California agreed to

pursue a research program in the Sierra Nevada in 1973 and jointly

™ Ibid., p. 10.

13 Ibid., p. 9.

14 U.S. Department of the Interior. Bureau of Reclamation. "A Status Report : The Sierra

Cooperative Pilot Project "(with excerpts from 'Weather Modification Design for Stream-

now Augmentation in the Northern Sierra Nevada." an initial study by MAB Associates,

San Ramon, Calif.), U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, February 1977, p. 1.

264

that needed study. Public meetings were held in California and Nevada

during 1974 to solicit comments on the proposed project. Another con-

tract, funded in May 1975, led to publication of a project design report

in December 1976. In August 1975 the California Department of Water

Resources withdrew as a financial partner in the project, owing to re-

orientation of priorities and redirection of manpower and funds

toward other water projects. The department continues to provide

available information needed for development of the project and mon-

itors its progress.

Two studies on likely social and environmental effects of incremental

snowpack increases on highways and public transportation were com-

pleted in 1976 by two other agencies of the State of California, the

California Highway Patrol and the California Department of Trans-

portation. A survey of individual citizens and organizational repre-

sentatives on attitudes and concerns about seeding by winter cloud

seeding was also conducted in 1976. 15

The preliminary experimental design notes that storms in the Sierra

cooperative project can be classified into two types and recommends

that the project should attempt to modify the storm types with sep-

arate objectives.

The orographic (westerly) storms should be seeded to increase the efficiency

of the storm, thus augmenting the amount of precipitation resulting from these

systems. The procedure would be to seed the storms at light seeding rates to

avoid overseeding. Seeding would be done with surface seeding generators and,

under certain circumstances, with airborne seeding generators.

It was recommended that the convective storms (southerly) be seeded to in-

crease precipitation at higher, colder elevations, primarily through redistribu-

tion, providing a greater total precipitation for storage in the snowpack. These

storms will be seeded heavily, with the object of altering the distribution of pre-

cipitation with respect to altitude, thus increasing the snowpack. In addition to

seeding the general orographic background of these storms by surface generators,

the pilot program would seed the updraft areas of the imbedded convective cells

heavily with high-output airborne generators. 18

The specific meteorological hypotheses to be tested by the Sierra ex-

periment are that : 17

1. Seeding will increase the average precipitation on treated sample

events as compared to the untreated events.

2. Seeding will increase the average elevation of maximum pre-

cipitation on treated sample events as compared to untreated events.

3. Seeding will increase the average duration of precipitation and/

or the rate of precipitation on treated sample events as compared with

the untreated events.

It is intended that the design and evaluation of the SCPP will be a

continuing process over a period of 7 years, constituting a major

feature in the step-by-step research in the pilot project. 18 The primary

hypotheses of the program as well as physical parameters which

accompany successful or unsuccessful events, will be tested in the

SCPP evaluation. Basic parameters to be tested statistically are : 19

1. The average precipitation accumulation.

2. The elevation of the maximum precipitation band.

15 Ibid., pp. 1-3.

16 Ibid., p. 15.

« Ibid.

Contract." Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project Newsletter. No. 6. May 1977. Denver. Colo., p. 2.

19 U.S. Department of the Interior, "A Status Report : The Sierra Cooperative Pilot Proj-

ect," 1977, p. 27.

265

3. The average total storm duration, the average duration of pre-

rate of precipitation.

The regions that are expected to be affected in the Sierra project

are shown in figure 8. Region 1 is the primary area of effect ; region

2 is the downwind area recommended for monitoring extra- area effects ;

and region 3, situated below 1,220 meters (4,000 ft.) elevation in the

American River basin, is intended to provide real-time precipitation

data as input for the declaration of an experimental unit and to

provide better definition of the precipitation distribution within the

drainage basin. 20

40

40.0

39.0

38.0

40 MILES

VIRGINIA

MT S. /\\

REGION 2

EXTRA AREA EFFECTS

^ VIRGINIA

.CARSON V N RANGE

GRANGE $ RANGE

LAKEA 'A P|NE

TAHOEA A NUT

* >

120.5

LONGITUDE

119.5

119.0

geographical areas in the project (see text). (From Bure iu of Reclamation,

Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project, status report, February 1977.)

2U Ibid., pp. 24-25.

266

The planning and design phase of the Sierra project continues, and

necessary for design of field operations. During the 1977-78 winter sea-

son collection of field data under prerandomized seeding conditions

should be completed ; operating procedures will be tested and refined ;

equipment will be installed, tested, and calibrated; concepts for co-

ordinating with operating programs in the area will be developed;

transport and diffusion studies will continue; and changes in design

will continue as a result of the increased knowledge acquired from the

research of the previous year. 21 If the preceding activities have been

accomplished successfully and weather conditions permit, randomized

seeding will begin in the 1978-79 season. From historic storm patterns

it has been estimated that 5 to 7 years of randomized seeding will be

necessary to obtain a data base suitable for confirmation of the ex-

pected increases at a significant level. During this period monitoring

programs and environmental studies will be designed and implemented.

There will be continued dialog with concerned officials and the general

public in the project area, and hopefully many answers will be ob-

tained tu societal, economic, and environmental questions. 22

Drought mitigation assistance

Drought emergency relief was requested by the Governors of a num-

ber of Western States during the summer of 1971. In partial response

to this request, the President's Office of Emergency Preparedness di-

rected the Bureau to conduct emergency precipitation stimulation

operations in Arizona, Oklahoma, and Texas. Skywater personnel

have also provided scientific consulting services for rain augmentation

programs in Lebanon, Brazil, India, Tasmania, and Jamaica. 23

A recent program, not part of Project Skywater, was administered

by the Bureau of Reclamation, under which grants were given to

States to support weather modification activities undertaken to miti-

gate impacts of the 1976-77 drought. Temporary authorities to the

Secretary of the Interior to facilitate various emergency actions were

provided by Public Law 95-18, amended by Public Law 95-107,

enacted April 7, 1977, and August 17, 1977, respectively. Authority

was granted to appropriate $100 million for a program which included

short-term actions to increase water supplies. Funds made available

were to be used to repair, replace, or improve affected water-supply

facilities and to establish a water bank of available water for rehabili-

tation. The Bureau implemented the act, publishing rules for emer-

gency loans, grants, and deferrals under the Emergency Drought Act

of 1977 in the Federal Register. 24 Procedures were established under

.sections 423.18 and 423.20 of these rules for State water resource agen-

cies to apply for nonreimbursable funds for studies and other actions

to augment water supplies. Bequests wore received during the period

of availability from six States for funds to support weather modifica-

tion activities. Table 12 shows the amount of funds approved for each

State for weather modification projects under this provision. 25

21 Ibid., p. 47.

22 Ibid.

23 Kahan. Archie M.. testimony in : U.S. Congress. House of Representatives, Committee

on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere. "Weath-

er Modification." hearings. 04th Congress. 2d session, June 15-18, 1977. Washington, D.C.,

U.S. Government Printing Office. 1976. p. 194.

■* Federal Register, vol. 42, No. 72. Thursday, Apr. 14, 1977, pp. 19609 -19613.

^ Private communication from James L. Kerr. Washington Representative, Office of At-

mospheric Water Resources, Bureau of Reclamation, November 1977.

267

Bureau of Reclamation, under provisions of the Emergency Drought Act of

1977.

Colorado $600,000

Kansas 300,000

Nevada 232,720

North Dakota 186,133

Utah 553, 500

Total 2, 172, 353

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Introduction and general

Under its Research Applied to National Needs (RANN) program,

the National Science Foundation (NSF) has in recent years developed

improved capabilities to stimulate research efforts immediately and

directly related to problems of society. This program, which dealt pri-

marily with problem-oriented research, focussed scientific and tech-

nological resources on selected problems of national importance in an

attempt to assist in their solution in a timely and practical manner.

RANN's areas of emphasis included the major category of environ-

mental programs, under which most of the NSF-sponsored research

in weather modification had until recently been located. 26

The NSF program in weather modification supports a broad range

of research, extending across the disciplines of economic, social, politi-

cal, legal, environmental, mathematical, and physical sciences. 27 The

overall goal of the program is "to establish the concept of weather

modification as a tool to help fulfill societal needs,-' and, to accomplish

this goal, the program supports research on the following five program

objectives: 28

1. To establish the feasibility of, and improve the technology for,

mitigating the undesirable effects of selected weather hazards.

2. To delineate the cause, extent, and impact of inadvertent weather

modification and to subsequently develop ways to use land and energy

resources to achieve more desirable responses in weather and climate.

3. To develop an improved capability to design, perform, and evalu-

ate weather modification experiments.

4. To investigate the impact of weather modification on society.

5. To develop specific applications of weather modification to in-

crease agricultural production.

Table 13 is a summary of weather modification research funding and

projected funding from fiscal year 1976 through fiscal year 1978 for the

National Science Foundation.

26 In the reorganization of the RANN Directorate in the NSF to the Applied Science and 1

Research Applications (ASRA) Directorate, effective February 1978, the NSF weather modi-

fication program was transferred to the basic research Astronomical, Atmospheric, Earth,

and Ocean Sciences (AAEO) Directorate. Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

27 Downie. Currie S. and Richard A. Dirks, National Science Foundation weather modi-

fication program, papers presented at the second WMO Scientific Conference on Weather

Modification, Boulder, Colo., Aug. 2-6, 1976. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva,

Switzerland, p. 557.

28 Ibid.

268

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION '

[In thousands of dollars)

Fiscal year—

iy/b

197T

1978

532

150

88

Hail suppression

3, 081

488

1,180

24I8

287

Inadvertent modification

1,153

101

600

1,032

1,045

6,216

5, 702

1 From Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology. Interdepartmental Committee for Atmos-

pheric Sciences. ICAS 21— fiscal year 1978, p. 94.

2 Includes technology assessment of hail suppression.

The RANN weather modification program dealt with a number

of specific, critical research topics and was dedicated to development of

improved technology in support of societal needs, transfer of this tech-

nology to potential users, and exploration of the impac f of weather

modification on society ; however, the program is not all encompassing.