Science Plan for Arctic System Modeling a report by the Arctic research community for the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs
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- Vision and description
MotivationWide-ranging environmental changes have been documented for the Arctic over the last 50 years. Although many of these changes have been evident since the mid-1970s, it is likely that they began early in the 20th century, prior to the extensive collection of observations in the Arctic region. Regardless of the driving forces, the combined observations and documentation suggest that the Arctic system may be entering a state never before seen in historic times. Complex physical, chemical, biological, and social processes interact to such a degree that it is not possible to understand future trajectories of individual parts of the system without developing holistic perspectives of the complete Arctic system and its connection with environmental change elsewhere on Earth. All components of the Arctic are interrelated through a network of linkages, feedbacks, and multi-dependent interactions. Theoretically, a change in one variable in a part of the system can initiate a cascade of regional effects and have global ramifications. These connections need to be understood and quantified in order to improve our ability to predict change in the Arctic. A central justification for developing an Arctic System Model, or system of computer models, is to strengthen our understanding of the interconnections among system components and the related feedback processes. Current efforts to understand the Arctic system and its relationship with global environmental change can roughly be divided into global climate and pan-Arctic modeling (e.g. Figure 1), process studies of sub-components of the Arctic system, and observational monitoring of the current state of the Arctic. The proposed Arctic System Modeling program aims to serve as a bridge between these different avenues of understanding to enhance their effectiveness. It also aims to establish clear quantitative insight into the interplay of climate, biogeochemistry, ecology and human interactions in the Arctic system that has heretofore remained nebulous. This quantitative capability is a necessary precursor to reliable predictions of environmental and societal responses to future climate. This objective encompasses our understanding of change, attribution of change, and effects of change. We feel that this is the only reasonable approach to predictability and will help society prepare for and adapt to ongoing environmental changes in the Arctic. This is a huge task, which will require that we work collectively and collaboratively with our international colleagues. 
Figure 1: Accelerated Arctic warming. Simulations by global climate models show that when sea ice is in rapid decline, the rate of predicted Arctic warming over land can more than triple. The image at left shows simulated autumn temperature trends during periods of rapid sea ice loss, which can last for 5 to 10 years. The accelerated warming signal (ranging from red to dark red) reaches nearly 1,000 miles inland. In contrast, the image at right shows the comparatively milder but still substantial warming rates associated with rising amounts of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. and moderate sea ice retreat that is expected during the 21st century. Most other parts of the globe (in white) still experience warming but at a lower rate, less than 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 Celsius) per decade. (Image by Steve Deyo, ©UCAR.) Vision and descriptionThe primary goal of the Arctic System Modeling program is to advance investigations of Arctic climate variability and change and understand their interactions with humans, ecosystems, and the global environmental system. A system-modeling project targeted on the Arctic fills an important need because the Arctic differs from lower latitudes in fundamental aspects of climate, biogeochemistry and ecology. It will provide a focal point for developing Arctic science and must be capable of supplying Arctic climate projections conforming to the priorities of climate assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The proposed community Arctic System Model (ASM) will be a computer model that resolves Arctic processes with high-resolution and a level of detail that greatly surpasses typical global models. It will be based upon a coupled climate model composed of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and terrestrial components drawn from existing projects within the Arctic research community. Emerging biogeochemical, ecological, human dimension, cryospheric and terrestrial components will be added to this model during the course of the ASM program in addition to ongoing development and improvement of established ASM components. ASM development will feed into global modeling efforts by creating and improving methods for simulating high latitude processes in addition to building the capacity for it to be nested interactively inside global Earth System Models. The ASM must be able to be used as a stand-alone tool for downscaling global environmental information for civil planning, policymakers and investigating internal variability of the Arctic system. To achieve these goals, it must remain at the vanguard of spatial resolution so as to be a preferred test bed for new approaches for simulating the Arctic environment. The proposed ASM program will enable transformative science through the treatment of complex problems that may be resolved only through consideration of interaction of the components of the Arctic System. These must involve dynamic interactions, potentially non-linear feedbacks, and thresholds. The ASM will be a widely available and easily useable vehicle for harnessing the collective intellectual resources of the many sub-disciplines of the Arctic research community. National and international partnerships will be essential not only to evaluate and use the model, but also to incorporate new components into the system. The Arctic System Modeling activity will achieve synergies with the observational community by quantifying the impacts of observing system components, by pointing to process studies needed for developing new and improved parameterizations, and by utilizing observations in model testing and validation. In this respect the ASM has the potential to integrate effectively the various components of Arctic system science and of ongoing programs such as the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH).
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