Second negative briefs
U.S. INTELLIGENCE-GATHERING COULD BE IMPAIRED
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- C. HARMS OF UNCLOS OUTWEIGH ALLEGED BENEFITS
- SK/N216. MANNED EXPLORATION: Solvency 1. THERE ARE DEFINITE LIMITS TO MANNED EXPLORATION
- 2. MANPOWER NEEDS ARE AS GREAT AS SPACE EXPLORATION’S
- SK/N217. MILITARY CUTS Disad A. SEQUESTRATION HAS CUT MILITARY TO THE BONE
- B. FURTHER CUTS WILL IMPAIR MILITARY READINESS 1. TROOPS WON’T BE PREPARED TO RESPOND TO CRISES
- 2. U.S. NAVY READINESS WILL BE DECIMATED
- 3. NATIONAL GUARD RESERVES AREN’T ADEQUATE
- 4. MILITARY DRAFT IS NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE
- C. LACK OF MILITARY READINESS INVITES AGGRESSION 1. RUSSIAN INVASION OF CRIMEA PROVES THE THREAT
- 2. NORTH KOREA CAN ATTACK SOUTH WITH IMPUNITY
- SK/N218. OCEAN DUMPING: Solvency 1. CLEANING UP OCEAN DEBRIS IS AN IMPOSSIBLE TASK
- 2. CLEANING UP PLASTIC WOULD DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD
- SK/N219. OFFSHORE DRILLING: Solvency 1. ANY ATLANTIC OFFSHORE DRILLING IS A DECADE AWAY
- 2. OFFSHORE RIGS ARE VULNERABLE TARGETS FOR TERRORISTS
- SK/N220. OFFSHORE DRILLING: Disad A. ATLANTIC DRILLING WILL BE A CALAMITY 1. EXPLORATION THREATENS MARINE ECOSYSTEM
2. U.S. INTELLIGENCE-GATHERING COULD BE IMPAIRED SK/N215.21) John O’Sullivan, NATIONAL REVIEW, September 10, 2007, p. 22, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. On the other hand, if a small U.S. intelligence-gathering vessel operating near a country's twelve-mile limit were to be seized, then the U.S. could well have to reveal sensitive information about its intelligence methods in legal proceedings before ITLOS. In general, as Rabkin [former professor of government, Cornell U.] points out, the U.S.--which has formidable independent diplomatic and military resources--would be hobbled, not assisted, by membership of UNCLOS in pursuing its existing maritime and diplomatic rights. C. HARMS OF UNCLOS OUTWEIGH ALLEGED BENEFITS SK/N215.22) George F. Will, THE HERALD-SUN (Durham, NC), June 24, 2012, p. D8, LexisNexis Academic. There might be marginal benefits from LOST's clarifications and procedures for resolving disputes arising from that law - although China and the nations involved in contentious disputes about the South China Sea have all ratified LOST, not that it seems to matter. But those hypothetical benefits are less important than LOST's actual derogation of American sovereignty by empowering a U.N. bureaucracy - the International Seabed Authority, based in Jamaica - to give or withhold permission for mining, and to transfer perhaps hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. wealth to whatever nation it deems deserving - "on the basis of equitable sharing criteria, taking into account the interests and needs of developing states, particularly the least developed and the land-locked among them." SK/N215.23) Donald H. Rumsfeld [former U.S. Secretary of Defense], THE WASHINGTON TIMES, July 18, 2012, p. B1, LexisNexis Academic. The Law of the Sea Treaty's 208 pages are riddled with ambiguous and problematic language that give sweeping new powers and potentially many billions of dollars to an untested international organization. By selectively reading the treaty, the U.S. military and American business groups, for example, can find sections to favor. The push for this agreement will not go away, but the U.S. senators who will be asked to consider the treaty will always need to view it in its entirety and in light of its long-term effects on American sovereignty. If they do so, I believe they will come to same conclusion I have: The Law of the Sea Treaty's costs far outweigh any modest benefits. SK/N215.24) Ed Feulner [President, The Heritage Foundation], THE WASHINGTON TIMES, May 22, 2012, p. B4, LexisNexis Academic. LOST amounts to little more than an expensive power grab by America's detractors worldwide. President Reagan was right to reject it 30 years ago. The U.S. Senate should do the same thing today. SK/N216. MANNED EXPLORATION: Solvency 1. THERE ARE DEFINITE LIMITS TO MANNED EXPLORATION SK/N216.01) Tony Dokoupil, NEWSWEEK, January 11, 2013, p. 1, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. It's a record dry spell, the result of budget cuts but also a shift in philosophy, a definitive break in the decades-old debate over whether it's even necessary to send people into extreme spaces, when machines are cheaper, safer, and harder working. "The body is a pain," says Robert Ballard, the marine geologist who discovered the Titanic, striking a common note about the problems with manned travel. "It has to go to the bathroom. It has to be comfortable. But the spirit is indestructible. It can move at the speed of light." SK/N216.02) Richard Monastersky, NATURE, September 13, 2012, p. 194, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But some places that scientists want to visit lie deeper than 4,500 metres and so will remain off-limits to Alvin for now. The National Science Foundation, which is funding most of the Alvin redesign, could not afford to build a 6,500-metre-class sub all at once. In particular, such deep dives require more energy and it would be prohibitively expensive to build a submersible that uses current battery technology to dive frequently and to greater depths. SK/N216.03) Richard Monastersky, NATURE, September 13, 2012, p. 194, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In 2004, Robison was a member of a committee of the National Research Council that assessed the future needs of deep submergence science. One of his biggest wishes was for a human-occupied vehicle (HOV) that could adjust its buoyancy to stop at any depth, allowing researchers to work well above the ocean floor. Most of the biological and chemical process in the ocean take place in the water column, not on the sea floor, Robison says. Yet neither the old Alvin nor the rebuilt sub can adjust its buoyancy enough to linger above the sea floor without draining its batteries. So nearly all trips go straight to the bottom. 2. MANPOWER NEEDS ARE AS GREAT AS SPACE EXPLORATION’S SK/N216.04) CNN WIRE, June 4, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "It takes 24 people topside just to have six people down below for 31 days, just like NASA does for the International Space Station," Cousteau [grandson of underwater explorer Jacques-Yves Cousteau] said. SK/N217. MILITARY CUTS Disad A. SEQUESTRATION HAS CUT MILITARY TO THE BONE SK/N217.01) STATES NEWS SERVICE, May 2, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Department of Defense is forced to cut $1 trillion over 10 years because Congress failed to compromise on tax and spending reform before 2013 when the cuts began. SK/N217.02) STATES NEWS SERVICE, May 20, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Sequestration, coming on top of almost $1 trillion in defense spending cuts between 2009 and 2023 promises not simply to cut defense but rather to gut it. SK/N217.03) STATES NEWS SERVICE, May 20, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. When the budget manure hit the sequestration fan, the result was a massive blow to readiness. The Air Force stood down 33 squadrons, cut flying hours for its remaining units and reduced maintenance activities. The Navy cancelled dozens of maintenance availabilities for ships as well as reduced training activities and purchases of spare parts. The Army and Marine Corps were hit equally hard. B. FURTHER CUTS WILL IMPAIR MILITARY READINESS 1. TROOPS WON’T BE PREPARED TO RESPOND TO CRISES SK/N217.04) STATES NEWS SERVICE, May 20, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If sequestration is triggered next year, the consequences could well break the military. What does this mean? Well, units will lack the training, maintenance or supplies to conduct required military missions. Ships will be tied up at the pier, combat aircraft left in the hanger, trucks and armored vehicles sidelined in the motor pools or in depots and training facilities will stand unused. Critical modernization programs will be cut back. In a number of cases, DoD will be forced to break multi-year procurement contracts that offer the Pentagon a price break. This means that the military will get fewer new ships or airplanes and will have to pay more for each one. Vital ISR platforms will be unavailable to provide forward deployed forces with critical intelligence and targeting information. The result could well be U.S. forces going into combat ill-prepared to fight and win. SK/N217.05) Sara Sorcher, NATIONAL JOURNAL DAILY, April 7, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The planned cuts to the Pentagon's budget put the U.S. military on a dangerous course with too few resources to fight, a majority of National Journal's National Security Insiders say. "The threat is increasing as our defenses atrophy," one Insider said. SK/N217.06) Arthur Herman, NATIONAL REVIEW, March 24, 2014, p. 22, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. [U.S. Secretary of Defense] Hagel's plan will shrink the U.S. Army from its current 520,000 active-duty personnel down to 440,000 to 450,000, about the same size as Vietnam's or Turkey's. Again, Hagel defenders argue that this just returns the Army to the force level we had before 9/11. That actually should be a source of alarm, not reassurance--especially when Secretary Hagel himself admits he is "diminishing our global readiness" in a "world that is growing more volatile, more unpredictable, and ... more threatening to the United States." SK/N217.07) STATES NEWS SERVICE, June 5, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In remarks at the Defense Communities 2014 National Summit yesterday, Pentagon officials described how force structure reductions will impact the Defense Department and industry partners amid ongoing budget woes and sequestration. Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Alan F. Estevez and Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Installations and Environment John Conger warned that a lack of modernization and procurement investments could shrink the industrial base and jeopardize readiness. SK/N217.08) Arthur Herman, NATIONAL REVIEW, March 24, 2014, p. 22, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. An Army of 440,000 to 450,000 troops is demonstrably too small to handle any wars larger than Iraq and Afghanistan, which at their peak stretched a force of 570,000 to the breaking point. Despite the years of headlines and heartbreak those wars brought, they were actually fairly small-scale, guerrilla-type conflicts, especially compared with a head-on collision with China in the Pacific or with Iran in the Persian Gulf, or even with a nuclear-armed, ballistic-missile-equipped North Korea on the Korean peninsula. No one has bothered to explain how an Army smaller by 120,000 will handle those crises, or a ramping up of Cold War tensions over Ukraine that requires putting American boots back on the ground in Western Europe. 2. U.S. NAVY READINESS WILL BE DECIMATED SK/N217.09) Anna Mulrine, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, October 18, 2013, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. The budget calls for the Navy to maintain a fleet of 48 nuclear-powered attack submarines - "and that's pre-sequestration," notes Mr. Work [former undersecretary of the Navy], citing the across-the-board federal spending cuts that went into effect in March and that will shave another $498 billion off the defense budget in the new fiscal year unless Congress intervenes. Given the current fiscal environment, "It's very difficult to even maintain 48 boats," he adds - a level that's less than half the size of the nation's 100-sub fleet during the cold war. SK/N217.10) Anna Mulrine, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, October 18, 2013, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Because the US Navy relies on stealth to carry out some of its most important national security operations, many such missions take place underwater, where submariners eavesdrop on the communications of adversaries and quietly position themselves for missile strikes should the need arise. 3. NATIONAL GUARD & RESERVES AREN’T ADEQUATE SK/N217.11) Arthur Herman, NATIONAL REVIEW, March 24, 2014, p. 22, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But in fact the term "reserves" has become a misnomer. Those part-time Reservists and National Guardsmen have evolved into the fulltime support and logistical backbone of our current force, as a manpower-starved Pentagon has increasingly shifted those burdens onto them. In 2012, in fact, the Army National Guard made up 32 percent of Army personnel, 38 percent of the Army's operating force, and 11.5 percent of the baseline budget of the entire Army. Cutting its numbers will directly affect the viability of the standing force that remains. 4. MILITARY DRAFT IS NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE SK/N217.12) Arthur Herman, NATIONAL REVIEW, March 24, 2014, p. 22, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Quite apart from the pressures that would make reimposing a draft political suicide today, no one currently serving in uniform below the rank of general remembers how to work with draftees, or has knowledge and experience in training and motivating unwilling bodies torn from civilian life and thrust into a fulltime military routine--let alone combat. And even in World War II, it took two years before those draftees were ready to fight and win a modern war. No such leisurely time frame exists today. Since Vietnam, the bedrock of our national security has instead been a large and highly trained military force of professionals, with salaries and benefits meant to attract as many of the best and brightest as possible. C. LACK OF MILITARY READINESS INVITES AGGRESSION 1. RUSSIAN INVASION OF CRIMEA PROVES THE THREAT SK/N217.13) Sara Sorcher, NATIONAL JOURNAL DAILY, April 7, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Russia's incursion into formerly Ukrainian Crimea should be a wake-up call, several Insiders said, about unpredictable threats in the future. "The U.S. has to be prepared for all types of conflict," one Insider said, "even the Cold War kind that we thought had been consigned to the ash heap of history." SK/N217.14) Sara Sorcher, NATIONAL JOURNAL DAILY, April 7, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. [National Journal’s National Security Insiders say:] "All of the defense cuts in place and planned are so limiting our military capability that Putin will likely conclude that we are not in any position to stop his efforts. There will be other potential aggressors throughout the world as we withdraw from our previous role of being the shining light on the hill for countries that want to see freedom and democracy." 2. NORTH KOREA CAN ATTACK SOUTH WITH IMPUNITY SK/N217.15) Jon Harper, STARS AND STRIPES, April 2, 2014, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. The commander of U.S. and U.N. forces in Korea told lawmakers Wednesday that North Korea has the capability to attack the south with "little or no warning," and further budget cuts could hamper the U.S. military's ability to respond. SK/N217.16) Jon Harper, STARS AND STRIPES, April 2, 2014, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. North Korea has the fourth largest military in the world and is aggressively enhancing its nonconventional capabilities, including cyber, according to Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of U.S. Forces-Korea. Scaparrotti told members of the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that North Korea's artillery forces are particularly worrisome because they could pound Seoul, where 23 million South Koreans and 50,000 Americans live. SK/N217.17) Jon Harper, STARS AND STRIPES, April 2, 2014, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Last year, the U.S. announced that it would beef up its missile defense capabilities in Fort Greely, Alaska, due to concerns about North Korea's advancing intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear programs. The U.S. has maintained a permanent force level of 28,500 troops in South Korea for years, and added another 800 in January with the deployment of a rotational Army battalion to the peninsula. SK/N217.18) Jon Harper, STARS AND STRIPES, April 2, 2014, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. Scaparrotti [Commander of U.S. Forces-Korea] said his forces are prepared to counter a North Korean attack, but he's concerned about the readiness of follow-on forces that would be required in any prolonged fight. He warned about the impact of further budget cuts on the U.S. military's ability to fight a major ground war with the North. "If we were to reduce our Army force size based on the [projected] sequestration [levels of 420,000] ... we would probably be challenged in terms of maintaining a long-duration conflict or one that included stability operations for some time thereafter," he told members of the committee. SK/N218. OCEAN DUMPING: Solvency 1. CLEANING UP OCEAN DEBRIS IS AN IMPOSSIBLE TASK SK/N218.01) CNN WIRE, June 24, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. It's expensive and ineffective to clean up existing marine debris. Picking trash off beaches or sweeping it from the ocean surface "does nothing to fix the problem at the source," said Doug Woodring, the co-founder of Ocean Recovery Alliance, the NGO behind the Plastic Disclosure Project. SK/N218.02) Olga Goldberg [U. of Texas Law School], TEXAS ENVIRONMENTAL LAW JOURNAL, Summer 2012, LexisNexis Academic, pp. 324-325. Both scientists and government agencies agree that simply removing plastic debris from the ocean is not practical and likely not feasible. There are two major obstacles to this. First, the ocean is vast and the plastic, for the most part, is diffuse. Dr. White calculates that "the amount of energy it would take to remove plastics from the ocean is roughly 250 times the mass of the plastic itself." NOAA estimates that it would take 68 ships one year to skim just 1% of the North Pacific Ocean. SK/N218.03) PROGRESSIVE MEDIA, June 4, 2013, pNA, LexisNexis Academic. DNV [Det Norske Veritas] said most of the plastic waste accumulates in the relatively still waters inside the five major ocean gyres. Though the accumulation of the waste in the five large ocean gyres offers options for their collection and removal, it is still a challenging task, DNV added. DNV estimates that skimming the surface layer of the five large gyres may take about 80 years if 1,000 ships are used. 2. CLEANING UP PLASTIC WOULD DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD SK/N218.04) Olga Goldberg [U. of Texas Law School], TEXAS ENVIRONMENTAL LAW JOURNAL, Summer 2012, LexisNexis Academic, p. 325. Second, because so much of the plastic is tiny, any net used to scoop up the plastic would necessarily also remove phytoplankton, zooplankton, and other tiny organisms, which tend to concentrate in the same areas. These organisms are the base of the marine food chain and are responsible for about 50% of the photosynthesis on Earth. Thus, cleaning up the ocean would undoubtedly do more harm than good. SK/N219. OFFSHORE DRILLING: Solvency 1. ANY ATLANTIC OFFSHORE DRILLING IS A DECADE AWAY SK/N219.01) PIPELINE & GAS JOURNAL, January 2014, p. 99, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. According to the report, if lease sales in the Atlantic OCS were held in 2018, exploratory drilling could begin the following year with the first production of oil and natural gas expected in 2026. SK/N219.02) UWIRE TEXT, October 10, 2011, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Energy Information Administration claims that offshore drilling could, in time, supply 18 billion barrels of crude oil. This increased production could lower gas prices for American consumers. On the other hand, oil prices are largely set by worldwide supply and demand; recent rises in prices reflect increasing energy use in rapidly growing economies such as China. The oil generated from offshore drilling in the United States may not impact world oil markets in any significant way. Furthermore, oil exploration and rig construction take years to complete -- according to the EIA, offshore drilling would not produce any change in oil prices until 2030. 2. OFFSHORE RIGS ARE VULNERABLE TARGETS FOR TERRORISTS SK/N219.03) Assaf Harel [Major, Israel Defense Forces], HARVARD NATIONAL SECURITY JOURNAL, 2012, LexisNexis Academic, pp. 133-134. Offshore platforms constitute high-value targets for terrorist attacks for two main reasons: (1) their importance to many states in generating energy and income and (2) the severe damage an attack on such assets may inflict. The offshore oil and natural gas industry is the world's largest marine industry, and oil production alone amounts to more than $ 300 billion per year. Furthermore, natural gas and oil are a significant source of energy and an important source of income to states that control these resources. Consequently, an attack on an offshore oil or gas platform could not only interrupt a nation's regular supply of energy, but also deprive it of an important source of income. Yet, the results of a terrorist attack on an offshore platform are not limited to those discussed above. Such attacks, especially when aimed at oil platforms, could also cause severe and long-term environmental damage. SK/N219.04) Assaf Harel [Major, Israel Defense Forces], HARVARD NATIONAL SECURITY JOURNAL, 2012, LexisNexis Academic, pp. 134-135. Besides the devastating damage they may inflict, attacks on offshore platforms are tempting to terrorists for another reason: these platforms are difficult to protect. While attacks on military bases, government installations, and transportation routes are becoming more difficult to carry out due to increased security, offshore platforms remain rather vulnerable. The isolation of these platforms, their distance from shore, and their widespread presence make it virtually impossible for states to protect them completely from attack. Moreover, these platforms are engaged in the exploration and storage of large quantities of flammable liquids or gases that may significantly increase the effect of an attack. Finally, offshore platforms are usually fixed to a permanent location and cannot conduct evasive maneuvers when attacked. SK/N219.05) Assaf Harel [Major, Israel Defense Forces], HARVARD NATIONAL SECURITY JOURNAL, 2012, LexisNexis Academic, p. 135. The threat to offshore platforms is enhanced by the fact that terrorist organizations have in past years obtained advanced capabilities that may be used for launching such attacks. For example, al Qaeda was once believed to own or control approximately fifteen cargo ships that could be used as "floating bombs" against offshore targets. Additionally, a recent interception of a cargo vessel in the Eastern Mediterranean revealed advanced shore-to-sea missiles allegedly sent from Iran to terrorists in Gaza. These missiles are capable of striking an offshore target at a distance of twenty-one kilometers (approximately eleven nautical miles). SK/N219.06) Assaf Harel [Major, Israel Defense Forces], HARVARD NATIONAL SECURITY JOURNAL, 2012, LexisNexis Academic, pp. 135-136. Although there have been few successful terrorist attacks on offshore platforms thus far, attacks and attempted attacks have become more frequent in the past several years. For example, more than fifteen terrorist attacks were launched in the last decade against oil platforms off the shore of Nigeria. Attackers kidnapped, killed, and injured crewmembers, and damaged equipment on the platforms, which consequently disrupted drilling activities. In another incident on April 24, 2004, terrorists launched a suicide attack on Iraq's two main offshore oil terminals. Coalition forces thwarted the attack, but it resulted in the death of three American servicemen. These incidents illustrate that terrorist organizations have become aware of the potential damage that may be inflicted through attacks on the offshore oil and gas industry. SK/N220. OFFSHORE DRILLING: Disad A. ATLANTIC DRILLING WILL BE A CALAMITY 1. EXPLORATION THREATENS MARINE ECOSYSTEM SK/N220.01) STATES NEWS SERVICE, January 10, 2014, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. At the hearing Pallone questioned Deputy Director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Walter Cruickshank and expressed his concern regarding the inevitable environmental and economic costs of expanding oil and gas exploration into the Atlantic Ocean. Pallone [U.S. Congressman from New Jersey] continued his opposition to seismic testing in the Atlantic and requested that BOEM not finalize its Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration completes guidelines on the impact of sound on marine life, such as endangered whales. Deputy Director Cruickshank responded negatively and said that the Bureau intends to move forward with finalizing their PEIS without waiting for this important new scientific guidance. SK/N220.02) Sarah Chasis [National Resources Defense Council] , STATES NEWS SERVICE, June 6, 2013, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "Secretary [of the Interior] Jewell today reaffirmed the Obama Administration's position not to open the Atlantic coast to environmentally risky offshore oil and gas leasing and drilling. But to properly protect our ocean wildlife and coastal communities, the Interior Department must not allow seismic exploration in the Atlantic - a precursor to such offshore oil and gas leasing. This seismic activity involves the use of airgun arrays that create intense sound, comparable to explosives, which has serious consequences for endangered whales and potentially for fisheries.” SK/N220.03) Sarah Chasis [National Resources Defense Council] , STATES NEWS SERVICE, June 6, 2013, pNA, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "According to the agency's own Environmental Impact Statement, this seismic exploration would injure as many as 138,500 marine mammals and disrupt feeding, calving, breeding, and other vital activities more than 13.5 million times over the next several years. The time and resources that the Interior Department is allocating to this seismic airgun testing could be better used on higher priorities that will allow our nation to move away from dirty fuels." Download 0.49 Mb. Share with your friends:
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