Solar Storms Affirmative – 4 Week Lab [1/3]
Solar Storms Impact – Economy
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Solar Storms Impact – EconomyA solar storm would cause nation wide blackouts affecting more than 130 million people and cost more than $2 trillion Eccleston, Chief Consultant for the Environmental Planning and NEPA Services Corporation and Stuyvenberg, Environmental Project Manager, US Nuclear Regulatory Comission, 2011 (Charles and Andrew, Environmental Quality Management, “The Perfect Electrical Storm? “ Volume 20, Issue 3, Article first published online: 14 MAR 2011, DOI 10.1002/tqem / Spring 2011 / 43 Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tqem.20288/pdf , accessed 7-2-11, ASR) Severe Space Weather Events—and How They Might Affect Us In 1859, the telegraph system represented stateof- the-art technology. After the solar flare, however, much of it was in cinders. This begs the question, “What would happen if an 1859-sized event occurred today, and how would it compare to other, more recent events?” Some answers can be found in a report published by the United States National Academy of Sciences (NAS) under the rather mundane title, “Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.”4 As this report explains, charged solar particles can interact with the earth’s magnetic field, causing what geophysicists refer to as geo-magnetically induced currents. These currents can create intense voltage fluctuations that could cause extensive damage to power and communications systems worldwide. In 1859, almost nothing beyond the telegraph system had been electrified. Today, the situation is alarmingly different. An event equivalent to the 1859 solar storm could knock out much of the nation’s electrical transmission system. Since the modern power grid is linked into almost every major aspect of modern society, the effects of an 1859-like event would be almost beyond description. The 132-page NAS report states that a severe space weather event in the United States “would result in large-scale blackouts affecting more than 130 million people.” According to the NAS report, the economic impact of what it terms a “severe geomagnetic storm scenario” could be as high as $2 trillion in the United States during the first year following Solar Storms Could Cost 2 Trillion the First Year, and take 4 to 10 Years to Fully Recover Science Magazine 6/26 (Richard A. Kerr, 6/26/09, “Are We Ready for the Next Solar Maximum? No Way, Say Scientists”, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/324/5935/1640.full, JEM) The academies' report put a huge price tag on a repeat of the 1859 superstorm. Judging by the costs of smaller incidents in recent decades, the panel estimated the economic cost in just the first year after such an extreme storm at $1 trillion to $2 trillion. Full recovery would take 4 to 10 years. Disturbances in the high-altitude ionosphere would disrupt radio communications and GPS for days; surges induced in the power grid could destroy expensive and hard-to-replace transformers. Satellites that survived could cost $100 million apiece to put back into operation. Even a recurrence of the lesser superstorm of May 1921 could lead to blackouts affecting 130 million Americans and half of North America, the panel reported. Solar Storms Impact – EconomySolar Storms collapse the economy, they cause 2 Trillion Dollars In Damage and Wreck the World Power Grid In 2013 The Guardian 2/21(Alok Jha, “Solar storms could create $2tn 'global Katrina', warns chief scientist”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/feb/21/solar-storms-global-katrina, JEM) The threat of solar storms that could wreak havoc on the world's electronic systems must be taken more seriously, the UK government's chief scientist has warned. A severe solar storm could damage satellites and power grids around the world, he said, leading to a "global Katrina" costing the world's economies as much as $2tn (£1.2tn). "This issue of space weather has got to be taken seriously," said John Beddington, the UK government's chief scientific adviser, speaking at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Washington DC. "We've had a relatively quiet [period] in space weather and we can expect that quiet period to end. Over the same time, over that period, the potential vulnerability of our systems has increased dramatically. Whether it's the smart grid in our electricity systems or the ubiquitous use of GPS in just about everything these days." "It's reasonable to expe ct there will be more [solar storm] events," said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "The watchwords are predict and prepare." The sun's activity goes up and down on a roughly 11-year cycle, and the next period of maximum activity is expected in 2013. A solar storm starts with a solar flare that is accompanied by a burst of electromagnetic radiation that, when it arrives at Earth, ionises the outer atmosphere. On the ground, we would be safe but GPS satellites and others would be affected. "GPS is a critical part of almost everything we do," said Thomas Bogdan, director of the Space Weather Prediction Centre in Colorado. "The ubiquitous need for an uninterrupted power supply, satellite-delivered services – every time you go to a gas station and purchase a gallon of gas with your credit card, that's a satellite transaction taking place – and, of course, aviation and communications. We have made our lives increasingly dependent on these things, but each of them carries vulnerabilities to space weather with them." Around 10-20 minutes after the initial flare would come a burst of energetic protons. "Now at risk would be satellites at geostationary orbit – if they do not have sufficient shielding around their sensitive electronics, they could be subject to problems with the internal computational activities," said Bogdan. Around 10-30 hours later, a "coronal mass ejection" would hit the Earth's magnetosphere and cause electric currents to surge along oil pipelines and high-tension electricity lines. This could cause blackouts such as the one that occurred in Quebec in 1989. Around large parts of the world, people would see a lightshow in the sky similar to the aurora borealis. Lubchenco said last week's solar flare illustrated the importance of paying close attention to solar weather. "That was the strongest solar flare in four years," she said. "As a consequence, airlines rerouted flights from polar regions in anticipation of the possibility that their radio communications would not be operational. That resulted in individuals being bumped from those flights, increased cost to the airlines because of longer routes and more use of fuel." Bogdan said the time it takes for the worst aspects of a solar storm to travel between the sun to Earth gives authorities a window of opportunity to get ready for the coming electromagnetic disturbances. Power companies could prepare by hardening transformers at substations and installing capacitors to soak up current surges. The most severe solar storm on record occurred in 1859, but there was little electric infrastructure in place around the world at the time. The storm did send currents running along the newly built telegraph systems, however. "They were so strong that the operators of the telegraphs could disconnect their batteries and still start sending messages," said Bogdan. 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