Solar Storms Affirmative – 4 Week Lab [1/3]
Electricity Grid is Vulnerable
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- Solar Storms Impact – Global Katrina
Electricity Grid is VulnerableWe are uniquely vulnerable for the coming solar storms – magnetosphere hole Webre, 2009 [Alfred Lambremont, The Examiner, “2012 may bring the "perfect storm" - solar flares, systems collapse” http://www.examiner.com/exopolitics-in-seattle/2012-may-bring-the-perfect-storm-solar-flares-systems-collapse, BJM] According to a December 16, 2008 report, NASA’s THEMIS spacecraft has discovered a hole in earth’s magnetic field which is 10 times as large as previously thought. The magnetosphere, which is designed to protect earth from the plasma of solar flares, now has a hole in it four time the size of the earth. According to the NASA report, “Northern IMF events don't actually trigger geomagnetic storms but they do set the stage for storms by loading the magnetosphere with plasma. A loaded magnetosphere is primed for auroras, power outages, and other disturbances that can result when, say, a CME (coronal mass ejection) hits.” The solar maximum is expected in 2012. University of New Hampshire scientist Jimmy Raeder states, “"We're entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It's the perfect sequence for a really big event." Solar Storms Impact – Global KatrinaSolar storms could create devastation twenty times worse than Katrina Hough 10 (Andrew, writer for The Telegraph, “Nasa warns solar flares from 'huge space storm' will cause devastation,” June 14, 2010, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-storm-will-cause-devastation.html) National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years. Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose. In a new warning, Nasa said the super storm would hit like “a bolt of lightning” and could cause catastrophic consequences for the world’s health, emergency services and national security unless precautions are taken. Scientists believe it could damage everything from emergency services’ systems, hospital equipment, banking systems and air traffic control devices, through to “everyday” items such as home computers, iPods and Sat Navs. Due to humans’ heavy reliance on electronic devices, which are sensitive to magnetic energy, the storm could leave a multi-billion pound damage bill and “potentially devastating” problems for governments. “We know it is coming but we don’t know how bad it is going to be,” Dr Richard Fisher, the director of Nasa's Heliophysics division, said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. “It will disrupt communication devices such as satellites and car navigations, air travel, the banking system, our computers, everything that is electronic. It will cause major problems for the world. “Large areas will be without electricity power and to repair that damage will be hard as that takes time.” Dr Fisher added: “Systems will just not work. The flares change the magnetic field on the earth that is rapid and like a lightning bolt. That is the solar affect.” A “space weather” conference in Washington DC last week, attended by Nasa scientists, policy-makers, researchers and government officials, was told of similar warnings. While scientists have previously told of the dangers of the storm, Dr Fisher’s comments are the most comprehensive warnings from Nasa to date. Dr Fisher, 69, said the storm, which will cause the Sun to reach temperatures of more than 10,000 F (5500C), occurred only a few times over a person’s life. Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots – or flares – hits a maximum level every 11 years. Dr Fisher, a Nasa scientist for 20 years, said these two events would combine in 2013 to produce huge levels of radiation. He said large swathes of the world could face being without power for several months, although he admitted that was unlikely. A more likely scenario was that large areas, including northern Europe and Britain which have “fragile” power grids, would be without power and access to electronic devices for hours, possibly even days. He said preparations were similar to those in a hurricane season, where authorities knew a problem was imminent but did not know how serious it would be. “I think the issue is now that modern society is so dependant on electronics, mobile phones and satellites, much more so than the last time this occurred,” he said. “There is a severe economic impact from this. We take it very seriously. The economic impact could be like a large, major hurricane or storm.” The National Academy of Sciences warned two years ago that power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications could “all be knocked out by intense solar activity”. It warned a powerful solar storm could cause “twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina”. That storm devastated New Orleans in 2005 and left an estimated damage bill of more than $125bn (£85bn). Dr Fisher said precautions could be taken including creating back up systems for hospitals and power grids and allow development on satellite “safe modes”. “If you know that a hazard is coming … and you have time enough to prepare and take precautions, then you can avoid trouble,” he added. His division, a department of the Science Mission Directorate at Nasa headquarters in Washington DC, which investigates the Sun’s influence on the earth, uses dozens of satellites to study the threat. The government has said it was aware of the threat and “contingency plans were in place” to cope with the fall out from such a storm. These included allowing for certain transformers at the edge of the National Grid to be temporarily switched off and to improve voltage levels throughout the network. The National Risk Register, established in 2008 to identify different dangers to Britain, also has “comprehensive” plans on how to handle a complete outage of electricity supplies. Massive solar storms disrupt fuel supplies, the economy, transportation, communication, and food and water as well as risking millions of lives Fox News 9 (Jim Dawson, 5-28-2009, “Scientists: U.S. Not Prepared for Strong Solar Storm,” http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,522260,00.html) EB For the scientists gathered recently for the 2009 Space Weather Enterprise Forum in Washington, D.C., the talk of the Earth being hit by catastrophic solar storms — both past and predicted — was almost casual, the currency of the work they do. There was the legendary "Carrington Event," a series of magnetic storms from the sun that hit the Earth in August and September of 1859, disrupting telegraph lines across the U.S. and triggering auroras so bright they turned the night skies into day as far south as the Caribbean. The storm went on for days. They spoke of a solar storm in May of 1921 that stunned scientists with its power, and one in March of 1989 that blacked out the entire power grid in Quebec in just 92 seconds. In 2003, the "Halloween storm" caused a massive blackout in the Northeast U.S. and $10 billion worth of damage to electrical systems. There are lessons to be learned from these past events, the researchers emphasized, and the danger posed by solar storms is increasing. This growing threat comes not from changes in the Sun, but from the increasing dependence of human societies on technology and electricity. A storm on the scale of the Carrington Event could damage the U.S. electrical grid to such an extent that vast regions of the country could be without power for weeks, perhaps months. Without electricity, drinkable water would soon be in short supply, as would fuel, food, communications and just about everything else society depends on to function. "The consequences would be almost incalculable," said Daniel Baker, director of the University of Colorado's laboratory for atmospheric and space physics. An extreme solar storm hitting our modern, high-tech world would severely disrupt oil and gas supplies, emergency and government services, the banking and finance industry, and transportation. The cost of the damage could reach into the trillions of dollars, he said. New electrical systems are designed to be efficient, which is different from being robust and hardened against the effects of a solar storm. "There is an efficiency-vulnerability tradeoff," said George Mason University social scientist Todd LaPorte, who studies critical infrastructures. "Sometimes efficiency isn't your friend." "Large storms can literally place millions of lives at risk," he said, and our growing dependence on technology is increasing that risk. "We should be preparing for a storm four to 10 times the intensity of the 1989 event [that blacked out Quebec]. There is a false sense of security." The reason the danger posed by space weather is not drawing more concern from the federal government, electric utilities or the public was summed up by David Crain of the space systems division of ITT, an engineering and technology company. "The problem with space weather is nobody directly dies of space weather, and that is a detriment in getting funding and increasing public education," he said. Unlike hurricanes or floods, the damage caused by solar storms is to underlying systems and not obvious in terms of visible devastation. Preparing for extreme solar storms also involves spending millions, even billions, of dollars, and it is difficult to get the government to spend significant money to prepare for an event that is merely predicted, the speakers agreed. "We have a hard time thinking about anticipation," said LaPorte. "We tend to react to events, not anticipate them. We're not good at heeding warnings." "We have developed a new awareness of the extremes of severe geomagnetic storms," said John Kappenman, founder of Storm Analysis Consultants and an expert on the vulnerability of the power grid to solar storms. Proposed designs for the grid may actually escalate the risk, he said. "There is an unrecognized, system-wide risk to the grid [from solar storms]. ... There is no design code to minimize this threat." The scientists were assured by officials from the Obama Administration's Office of Science and Technology Policy that the threats of space weather are a concern. But because solar storms do not result in immediate, visible damage, the participants at the forum said public education is critical to developing and implementing a plan to mitigate the damage from a future extreme solar storm. "But if you do too much of that, what you end up with in the public is disaster fatigue," Crain said. 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