Solar Storms Coming Now
The same conditions that existed for the Carrington event will coincide for the predicted solar storm in 2013
Phillips, production editor of Science@NASA, 2009
(Dr. Tony, NASA“ New Solar Cycle Prediction” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/, May 29, accessed 7-22-11, ASR)
An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression. "Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013." The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.
The sun is on the eve of a below-average solar cycle – the same type of cycle that occurred during the 1859 Carrington event.
Phillips, production editor of Science@NASA, 2011
(Dr. Tony, NASA “Getting Ready for the Next Big Solar Storm,” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/22jun_swef2011/ , June 21, accessed 7-22-11, ASR)
In Sept. 1859, on the eve of a below-average1 solar cycle, the sun unleashed one of the most powerful storms in centuries. The underlying flare was so unusual, researchers still aren't sure how to categorize it. The blast peppered Earth with the most energetic protons in half-a-millennium, induced electrical currents that set telegraph offices on fire, and sparked Northern Lights over Cuba and Hawaii. This week, officials have gathered at the National Press Club in Washington DC to ask themselves a simple question: What if it happens again? "A similar storm today might knock us for a loop," says Lika Guhathakurta, a solar physicist at NASA headquarters. "Modern society depends on high-tech systems such as smart power grids, GPS, and satellite communications--all of which are vulnerable to solar storms." She and more than a hundred others are attending the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum—"SWEF" for short. The purpose of SWEF is to raise awareness of space weather and its effects on society especially among policy makers and emergency responders. Attendees come from the US Congress, FEMA, power companies, the United Nations, NASA, NOAA and more. As 2011 unfolds, the sun is once again on the eve of a below-average solar cycle—at least that’s what forecasters are saying. The "Carrington event" of 1859 (named after astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the instigating flare) reminds us that strong storms can occur even when the underlying cycle is nominally weak. In 1859 the worst-case scenario was a day or two without telegraph messages and a lot of puzzled sky watchers on tropical islands. In 2011 the situation would be more serious. An avalanche of blackouts carried across continents by long-distance power lines could last for weeks to months as engineers struggle to repair damaged transformers. Planes and ships couldn’t trust GPS units for navigation. Banking and financial networks might go offline, disrupting commerce in a way unique to the Information Age. According to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences, a century-class solar storm could have the economic impact of 20 hurricane Katrinas.
Solar Storms Coming Now
2013 will be the date of a “once-in-a-generation storm” that will compromise all of modern technological society.
Kent, The Newfoundland Herald, 2010
(Valerie, The Newfoundland Herald, “Solar Storm Looming?” http://www.nfldherald.com/features/Herald_Solar-Storm-Looming.pdf, July 18, 2010, accessed 7-22-11, ASR)
“The Sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity,” says Richard Fisher, head of NASA’s Heliophysics Division. “At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms.” That means the increased solar activity will have a direct impact on our satellites and other electronics. According to scientists, a solar storm occurs when eruptions from the Sun spew charged particles and radiation in the direction of Earth. Similar to Earth’s climate, the Sun experiences a peak in energy every 11 years or so. As a result, we are heading into a time of increased activity for this crucial star in our solar system. The Sun could reach temperatures of more than 10,000 degrees Fahrenheit (5,500 degrees Celsius). NASA scientists predict a solar storm will hit the Earth in 2013. This will be a “once-in-a-generation storm” caused by extremely high levels of magnetic energy released by solar flares. Those surges will of course “disrupt communication devices such as satellites and car navigations, air travel, the banking system, our computers, everything that is electronic,” Fisher explains. “Large areas will be without electricity power.”Those who are already in space could be at risk as well. “The harsh radiation could even kill astronauts on the International Space Station,” scientists concluded. In fact, a severe solar storm could cause as much economic detestation as Hurricane Katrina did.
2012 – 2013 Will Be Like Hurricane Season for Solar Storms
Army Space Journal 08 (Godshall, Stacy, “Space Climate and the Military Decision Making Process in Solar Cycle 24”, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA517914&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JEM)
As a solar cycle progresses from minimum to maximum, the dynamics of the solar activity change as well. Geomagnetic storms can occur during almost any part of the cycle and originate from solar activity such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and Corotating Interactive Regions of solar wind (regions in which fast and slow solar wind mix to create solar wind shock fronts). However, there is extensive data which shows that such activities and subsequent geomagnetic storms occur at certain times more than others just as hurricanes occur in the Atlantic Ocean at certain times of the year.
The solar Maximum is Happening Soon and It Will be Greater Than The Previous By Up To 50 Percent
Army Space Journal 08 (Godshall, Stacy, “Space Climate and the Military Decision Making Process in Solar Cycle 24”, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA517914&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, JEM)
January 2008 was the beginning of a new solar cycle called solar cycle 24. In this new 11 year cycle, as with all solar cycles, the sun will have an increase in magnetic activity until the maximum is reached in about 2012 or 2013, and then decrease until about 2019 when minimum will be reached. This type of dynamic activity in the sun has been visibly manifested for centuries in the number of sunspots on the sun, with the maximum of the cycle corresponding to the maximum of the number of sunspots. The maximum of solar cycle 24 will possibly have a peak 30-50 percent greater than the peak of solar cycle 23 as depicted in Figure 1 [Dikpati, et al, 2006; Phillips and Hathaway, 2006], and thus it will possibly be an intense cycle for geomagnetic storms.
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