Debris Link—Space Weapons

Debris Link—Space Weapons

Furthermore, many scientists are concerned that once a “critical density” of space debris is reached, a process called collisional cascading (or chain reaction) – collision fragments will trigger further collisions – would start. Thus, the Earth would be covered by a cloud of debris too dense to allow stationing any satellites or even passing through. It is also estimated that such a “critical density” of space debris in LEO would already be achieved when its population increases a few times.^[23] Some scientists estimate that the density may already be sufficiently great at 900-1,000 km and 1,500-1,700 km that a cascade of collisions can be sustained.^[24] Thus, fragmenting several satellites at LEO may lead to a chain reaction. Consequently, there would be no more satellites in LEO either for space exploration, civilian or military purpose, such as the Hubble Space Telescope (at about 600 kilometers), the Space Shuttle, the International Space Station, earth-observing satellites, photo-reconnaissance satellites, and part of the navigation satellites. As Prof. Primack (University of California at Santa Cruz) pointed out, “Weaponization of space would make the debris problem much worse, and even one war in space could encase the entire planet in a shell of whizzing debris that would thereafter make space near the Earth highly hazardous for peaceful as well as military purposes.”^[25] In short, space weaponization will have a disastrous effect not only on global security but also on global economy, which is closely tied to assets in space.

Even worse, eventually these space weapons will be used to attack satellites – this is part of the U.S. space control strategy. In addition, an adversary could use ASAT weapons to attack these space weapons. Once a satellite is destroyed and fragmented, more orbital debris would be generated. For example, at an ASAT test in September 1985, the U.S. fragmented the Solwind spacecraft with an air-launched miniature homing vehicle. More than 200 catalogued pieces of debris were produced, and most remained in orbit for several years.^[21] While the fragments from SBI impacts on boost-phase missiles could not significantly increase the amount of orbital debris in LEO,^[22] an SBI would fragment a satellite into hundreds of pieces of tractable debris (larger than 10 cm) and far more medium-sized orbital debris. Then, these medium-size orbital debris, with mass of several grams to tens grams, at a collision velocity about 10 km/s, could fragment another satellite of hundreds of kilograms or a few tons. Based on the mass distribution of fragments generated in hypervelocity impacts, for example, a two-ton satellite could be broken into several hundred thousands medium-size pieces, hundreds larger ones, and billions of debris smaller than 1 cm. Thus, fragments from several shattered satellites could several times the current orbital debris in LEO.

Debris Link—SPS

Plan causes a chain reaction of space debris – we’re on the brink now

Mehrholz et al 2 (D., L. Leushacke, W. Flury, R. Jehn, H. Klinkrad, M. Landgraf, FGAN Research Institute for High-Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques and European Space Operations Centre (ESOC), Feb, Detecting, Tracking and Imaging Space Debris, http://www.esa.int/esapub/bulletin/bullet109/chapter16_bul109.pdf)
Today’s man-made space-debris environment has been created by the space activities that have taken place since Sputnik’s launch in 1957. There have been more than 4000 rocket launches since then, as well as many other related debris-generating occurrences such as more than 150 in-orbit fragmentation events. Currently, there are more than 8700 objects larger than 10–30 cm in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and larger than 1 m in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) registered in the US Space Command Satellite Catalogue. US Space Command tracks these objects with radars and optical telescopes to determine their orbits and other characteristic parameters, including their sizes (Fig. 1). Approximately 6% are operational spacecraft, 21% are old spacecraft, 17% are rocket upper stages, 13% are mission-related debris, and 43% are fragments from (mostly) explosions or collisions. Consequently, about 94% of the catalogued objects no longer serve any useful purpose and are collectively referred to as ‘space debris’. In addition, there are a large number of smaller objects that are not routinely tracked, with estimates for the number of objects larger than 1 cm ranging from 100 000 to 200 000.

Debris Impact—Brink

Remediation is needed, even adding one more piece of debris will cause the impact

Wright ’07 (David, co-director and senior scientist of the Global Security Program, October 31, “Space debris.” Physics Today, Ebsco)

An important implication of the study is that while mitigation efforts are important for slowing the increases, only debris-remediation measures such as removing large, massive objects already in orbit can hope to prevent their consequences. Remediation efforts such as robotic missions to remove defunct satellites and rocket stages are very expensive, but are being studied.

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