Space Debris/Ozone da 1 debris disad 2

Debris UQ—AT: Inevitable

The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, led by two former US Secretaries of Defense, recognized the importance of space stability when it recommended in its final report that the United States should “develop and pursue options for advancing U.S. interests in stability in outer space ... includ[ing] the possibility of negotiated measures.”7 This recommendation is relevant to other countries as well. It would allow everyone to continue to reap the civilian, commercial and military advantages of space and safeguard the continuing commercial development and utilization of space. It would give space and non-space powers alike a vested interest in avoiding space conflict.

These vital space assets face three forms of threat, all of them worrisome and growing. First, the proliferation of space and other technologies, and specifically the anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities demonstrated within the past three years, call attention to the risk that an advanced country could exploit this fast-growing world dependence on space in a war.1 Second, space “traffic” is heavier than it has ever been and getting heavier still, in terms of both vehicles and communications, but there is no space traffic control authority. The current level of simply monitoring space objects is widely regarded as far below what is needed: there is a substantial and growing need for space traffic management capabilities, including enforceable rules of the road and codes of conduct, and space situational awareness to inform a space traffic management capability. Third, space debris poses an insidious and growing threat to all space assets. Debris in space does not quickly fall to the ground: at all but the lowest orbits, debris can stay aloft for centuries and more. In addition to the 19,000 orbiting objects the United States Air Force is tracking, there are hundreds of thousands of potentially lethal objects in orbit, and millions of smaller objects that pose at least some risk.2 If current space debris trends continue, there will be almost 1000% more debris than today within 25 years.3 This would greatly increase the risk of satellite collisions and force satellite operators into making frequent, costly and satellite-lifetime shortening maneuvers. The collision earlier this year between a US Iridium satellite and an older Russian Cosmos dramatically illustrates the problem.4

In consultation with allies, the Obama Administration is currently in the process of assessing US space policy, programs, and options for international cooperation in space as a part of a comprehensive review of space policy. This review of space cooperation options includes a “blank slate” analysis of the feasibility and desirability of options for effectively verifiable arms control measures that enhance the national security interests of the United States and its allies.9 There are several classes of agreement that can be considered for space, one of which includes codes of conduct and rules of the road. These kinds of agreement have been proposed in various forms for several years and are designed to ensure that those who operate in space do so responsibly, with due regard for the rights of others in space, and with an appreciation that space should be available for the benefit of future generations as well as the present one. Michael Krepon of the Stimson Center has done valuable work in this area, and the European Union has issued a commendable draft Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities.10 One value of this kind of approach is that the agreements need not be in treaty form, which takes longer to negotiate. There have been relevant ongoing discussions and meetings on the subject of space debris, a growing problem that cannot be entirely resolved by the voluntary guidelines recently approved by COPUOS.11 Other issues that could be covered by this category of agreement include space situational awareness, space traffic management, and further debris mitigation measures.

Debris UQ—AT:Inevitable— Russia

Russia won’t increase debris, focus is on lowering it

Eaton ’10 (Kit, wrier for science, technology and generally-exciting-and-innovative, November 24, “Space debris? Russia’s got it covered”, Sign of the Times, http://www.sott.net/articles/show/218802-Space-Debris-Russia-s-Got-It-Covered)

Energia, Russia's space corporation, has revealed plans to build a special space "pod" which will grab around 600 defunct satellites and then safely deorbit them so that they either burn up in the atmosphere or splash down into the ocean. The pod will rely on a nuclear power core, and cost around $2 billion to develop and deploy. Energia plans to complete design and testing by 2020 and have it in service no later than 2023, with an operational lifespan of around 15 years. The company also said it has been working on a space interceptor capable of tackling any dangerous objects from the outer solar system that may be on a collision course with Earth. If it seems odd to think of Russia as Earth's space junk and comet defender, it's also welcome news. Space debris in the form of defunct or malfunctioning satellites is an increasingly severe problem. Numerous orbits are becoming inaccessible, or at least hopelessly dangerous, because of wandering hulls or showers of shredded metal debris--like the one caused by a collision between a working U.S. Iridium satellite and a dead Russian Cosmos satellite in 2009.

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