Supplemental section of the file (for printing purposes, starts at p. 102)
Download 1.03 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- A2 Not Imminent
- Timeframe – Short
- Could strike at any time
Global Killer PossibleWe haven’t discovered 1/3 of large asteroids, and need better detection methods to do soValsecchi ‘7 (G.B., INAF-IASF & A. Milani Comparetti, Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Ch. 11: Evaluating the Risk of Impacts and the Efficiency of Risk Reduction in Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach, SpringLink) With automated surveys currently operating (LINEAR, LONEOS, NEAT, Catalina, Spacewatch) there has been rapid progress; as of November 2004 more than 700 NEAs with estimated diameter > 1 km have been discovered (and followed up until a reasonably good orbit could be determined). The estimation of the total population is tricky, but about 2/3 of the 1 km NEAs have been discovered. The remaining ones, however, will take long to discover, because their orbits are such that they are less often visible than the ones already discovered (Bottke et al. 2002). A2 Not ImminentEven if a NEO is not immanent – the plan is critical to set up effective policy frameworks to deal with a NEO when it does come.Richard Crowther, 2009 Ph.D. Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), Harwell Science and Innovation Campus, Chilton, Oxfordshire OX11 0QX, UK Journal of Cosmology, 2009, Vol 2, pages 411-418. Cosmology, October 31, 2009 Near Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat: An International Policy Response The evaluation of the NEO risk requires data and expertise from many scientific fields and other domains relevant to risk analysis. It is worth emphasizing however that NEOs do not recognize national boundaries and that the consequences of future impacts are unlikely to be isolated to any individual country or region. For this reason amongst others it is important that the policy framework which is established should encourage nations to work together to share data, expertise and resources to assess and mitigate the risk of a future impact, wherever it may occur on the Earth. In looking for a formal response from government in relation to the NEO hazard, we also need to be realistic and pragmatic. The current surveys have demonstrated that a global-scale asteroid impact is not imminent, and so there are few immediate actions which need to be taken, the most urgent perhaps being the need to reduce the size threshold of detection of the survey programs to include objects which still pose a very significant threat to society should they impact the Earth. Instead we need to exploit existing policy platforms and infrastructures where appropriate, and bridge the gaps in capability (whether it be process or infrastructure) with specific actions related to NEOs. There is however a compelling argument for embarking on the establishment a policy framework to address NEOs now. We need to use this finite window of opportunity, before a specific impact threat has been identified, to develop our policies in a balanced and objective manner. Experience has shown us that decisions made ‘in the heat of the moment’ can be flawed, ill-judged, and compromised by emotion and subjective influences such as exposure to an impact threat (or lack of it). Mitigating the impact of a NEO will represent one of the greatest challenges ever posed to society, and the resulting technical solutions will be intrinsically coupled with wide ranging policy implications. We are obliged to ensure that a policy framework is set in place which will support these efforts rather than undermine them. Timeframe – ShortStrike could come at any timeGerrard & Barber ’97 (Michael & Anna, Asteroids and Comets: U.S. and International Law and the Lowest-Probability, Highest Consequence Risk, New York Univ. Environmental Law Journal, http://www1.law.nyu.edu/journals/envtllaw/issues/vol6/1/6nyuelj4.html) Asteroids 1 and comets 2 pose unique policy problems. They are the ultimate example of a low probability, high consequence event: no one in recorded human history is confirmed to have ever died from an asteroid or a comet, but the odds are that at some time in the next several centuries (and conceivably next year) an asteroid or a comet will cause mass localized destruction and that at some time in the coming half million years (and conceivably next year), an asteroid or a comet will kill several billion people. The sudden extinction of the dinosaurs, and most other species 65 million years ago, is now generally attributed to the impact of a 10-kilometer- wide comet or asteroid at Chicxulub in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that left a 110-mile-wide crater. 3 *5 Even our own century has seen smaller-scale impacts. On June 30, 1908, hundreds of square miles of trees were burned and herds of reindeer may have been incinerated in the Tunguska region of Siberia by an explosion with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima bombs, apparently caused by a 60-meter asteroid. 4 Airborne blasts in the kiloton to megaton range were observed in 1930 at the Curuca River in Brazil; in 1947 at Sikhote-Alin, Siberia; in 1965 over Revelstoke, Canada; and over Ontario in 1966 and Alaska in 1969. 5 Most recently, on November 22, 1996, a meteorite crashed into a coffee field in Honduras, leaving a 165-foot-wide crater. 6 Could strike at any timeChapman ‘3 Clark Chapman: Joe Veverka makes a major error when he compares the time scale for a large asteroid collision with the time scale for the sun turning into a red giant. There is ZERO chance that the sun will turn into a red giant during the next century, or even the next billion years, according to our robust understanding of the physics of stellar evolution. But asteroids strike AT RANDOM. If asteroids struck like clockwork, a kilometer-sized body every few hundred thousand years for example, then the analogy might work. But there is roughly a one-in-several-thousand chance that a kilometer-sized asteroid will strike during the 21st century. One could even strike tomorrow. One might well question what level of risk we are willing to accept by doing nothing about one-kilometer asteroids. Joe should argue that he's willing to accept the risk, given other higher priority concerns. But he's wrong, and he hurts his case, to make the classic error people make about lightning strikes and hundred-year floods: "the next one can't happen again soon." It has nothing to do with a "waiting time" or being "over the event horizon." Given that civilization might hang in the balance, we really should think about this issue, despite the low probability that we will have to meet this challenge during our lifetimes. Of course, until such an asteroid is discovered, there certainly are weightier threats facing society, as Joe Veverka argues. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 1.03 Mb. Share with your friends:
|