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Small Asteroid  Accidental Nuclear War



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Small Asteroid  Accidental Nuclear War




Small strike triggers another nuclear war


BBC ‘2 (Asteroids 'could trigger nuclear war', 7-15, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2128488.stm)

A small asteroid could accidentally trigger a nuclear war if mistaken for a missile strike, experts have warned. Scientists and military chiefs studying the threat are calling for a global warning centre to be set up to inform governments immediately of asteroid impacts. The risk is seen as particularly grave if an asteroid blast were to happen in areas of military tension, such as over nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan. Each year about 30 asteroids several metres in length pierce the atmosphere and explode, with even the smaller sized ones unleashing as much energy as the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in Japan. 'Panic' reaction Earlier this month, an Israeli pilot flying an airliner over the Ukraine reported seeing a blue flash in the sky similar to the type of blast caused by a surface-to-air missile, despite Ukrainian authorities saying no such missile had been fired. Experts now believe the pilot saw an explosion caused by an asteroid entering the Earth's atmosphere at high speed. Experts met last week in the US capital Washington DC to discuss what might have happened had such an explosion occurred over a volatile area such as the India-Pakistan region. "Neither of those nations has the sophisticated sensors we do that can determine the difference between a natural Neo (near-Earth object) impact and a nuclear detonation," Air Force Brigadier General Simon Worden from the US Space Command told the Aerospace Daily newspaper. "The resulting panic in the nuclear-armed and hair-trigger militaries there could have been the spark for a nuclear war."

Causes accidental nuclear war


Worden ‘2 (Brigadier General Simon P., Hearings on the threat of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) before the Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics, House Committee on Science, October 3, 2002. http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/gov_threat_2002.cfm)

Two and a half months ago, Pakistan and India were at full alert and poised for a large-scale war, which both sides appeared ready to escalate into nuclear war. The situation has defused-for now. Most of the world knew about this situation and watched and worried. But few know of an event over the Mediterranean on June 6th of this year that could have had a serious bearing on that outcome. U.S. early warning satellites detected a flash that indicated an energy release comparable to the Hiroshima burst. We see about 30 such bursts per year, but this one was one of the largest we have ever seen. The event was caused by the impact of a small asteroid, probably about 5-10 meters in diameter, on the earth's atmosphere. Had you been situated on a vessel directly underneath, the intensely bright flash would have been followed by a shock wave that would have rattled the entire ship, and possibly caused minor damage. The event of this June received little or no notice as far as we can tell. However, if it had occurred at the same latitude just a few hours earlier, the result on human affairs might have been much worse. Imagine that the bright flash accompanied by a damaging shock wave had occurred over India or Pakistan. To our knowledge, neither of those nations have the sophisticated sensors that can determine the difference between a natural NEO impact and a nuclear detonation. The resulting panic in the nuclear-armed and hair-triggered opposing forces could have been the spark that ignited a nuclear horror we have avoided for over a half century. I've just relayed one aspect of NEOs that should worry us all. As more and more nations acquire nuclear weapons-nations without the sophisticated controls and capabilities built up by the United States over the 40 years of Cold War-we should ensure the 30-odd yearly impacts on the upper atmosphere are well understood by all to be just what they are.




Strike causes accidental nuclear war


Stenger ‘2 (Richard Stenger, October 3, 2002, CNN, “General: Asteroid could start nuke war,” http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/10/03/asteroid.hearing/)

While astronomers scan the skies for killer asteroids, smaller cosmic boulders pose a greater overall risk and could even spark a nuclear conflict, space and military representatives told a congressional hearing Thursday. Scientists estimate that near the Earth's orbital path are slightly more than 1,000 asteroids 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) in diameter or larger that could cause global catastrophes if they hit their mark. NASA expects to conclude a census of such large near-Earth objects, or NEOs, in 2008 and has already identified almost half of the predicted population. Collisions with such monster rocks take place only once every 1 million years or so. Better to worry about those the size of cars, which hit every few weeks, or those the size of whales, which hit every few centuries, said U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Simon Worden. An asteroid 5 to 10 meters in diameter exploded in June over the Mediterranean Sea, releasing as much energy as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War II, Worden told the House Committee on Science. "Imagine that the bright flash accompanied by a damaging shock wave had occurred over India or Pakistan," said Worden. He noted that at the time the two countries were near the brink of war and that either could have mistaken it for a surprise attack. 'Nuclear horror' "The resulting panic in the nuclear-armed and hair-triggered opposing forces could have been the spark that ignited a nuclear horror we have avoided for over a half century." And, he said, if a space boulder in the 100-meter range detonated over a major city, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people might die. His point was that it wouldn't take a so-called "dinosaur killer" asteroid to cause a major catastrophe.




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