T- can’t Be qpq answers 4 t-have to Be Positive Incentives Answers 6



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Case Turn Answers

AT: North Korea Famine Turn

(--) Turn is non-unique: Kim is already starving his people.

(--) Nuclear war causes famine: that’s Hayes & Green evidence.

(--) Multiple alt causes to North Korean famine.


Julian Ryall, 5/30/16, (Staff Writer at the Telegraph) “North Korea warns of 'arduous march' — a metaphor for famine — as country braces for new sanctions.” National Post http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/north-korea-warns-of-arduous-march-a-metaphor-for-famine-as-country-braces-for-new-sanctions Accessed 7/20/2016 RK

North Korean state media has warned the country to prepare for a new “arduous march” as international sanctions take effect. The term was coined by the North Korean leadership in 1993 as a metaphor for the famine that killed as many as 3.5 million people over four years. The famine was brought on by economic mismanagement, natural disasters, the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the consequent loss of aid, combined with the regime’s insistence on continuing a life of luxury and feeding the military. Now, less than one month after the UN Security Council voted in favour of new sanctions against North Korea for its recent nuclear and missile tests, Pyongyang has announced a nationwide campaign to save food. “The road to revolution is long and arduous,” an editorial in the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper said on Monday. “We may have to go on an arduous march, during which we will have to chew the roots of plants once again.” The Chosun Ilbo, a South Korean newspaper, reported that every citizen of Pyongyang is being ordered to provide 1kg of rice to the state’s warehouses every month, while farmers are being forced to “donate” additional supplies from their own meagre crops to the military. There are reports of North Koreans hoarding food as they fear another famine, and the regime has started to crack down on the unofficial markets that serve as an important source of food for city-dwellers and have been tolerated in recent years. The markets popped up after an attempt in 2009 to reform the North’s currency went awry, causing the national food-rationing system to collapse and triggering fears of another famine. The Rodong Sinmun also warned that despite the hardships, allegiances to Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, would not be permitted to waver – “even if we give up our lives”. North Korea has requested 440,000 tons of food aid from overseas to feed its people so far this year.


A2: Appeasement

(--) Their Pinkston evidence doesn’t assume Chinese sanctions. Once China, another nuclear power, puts its full force behind South Korea, North Korea will perceive South Korea to be more threatening.

(--) Relations outweigh, bad relations with China means that North Korea will perceive a weakness in Sino-American and Sino-South Korean relations and therefore a vulnerability.

A2: THAAD key to Assurances

(--) THAAD has not yet been deployed yet. Also, Japan is willing to proliferate now due to accelerated North Korean proliferation. That’s RT 6/26.

(--) Sanctions provide more of an assurance. If we pass the plan before THAAD is deployed, North Korea will have already deescalated due to Chinese sanctions.

(--) South Korea doesn’t consider THAAD to be an effective defense and North Korea has further escalated due to THAAD.


Today Online, 7/21/16, “Thaad missile system spooks South Koreans” TODAYonline http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/thaad-missile-system-spooks-south-koreans Accessed 7-21-2016 RK

SEOUL — The fallout from the United States and South Korea’s plan to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system was swift: Hunger strikes and share price falls at home; ire and threats from North Korea and China. Designed to protect South Korea from an increasingly bellicose Pyongyang, the terminal high-altitude air defence platform (Thaad) has become a lightning rod for tensions between Seoul, Washington and Beijing, which fears its own military may be compromised. That has spooked South Koreans, who fear retaliation from China, their biggest trading partner, in the form of sanctions — coincidentally or not, a Chinese car company has already ditched its use of South Korean batteries. They also fear that Thaad lacks the range to protect Seoul. For Washington, the stakes are also high. It has 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea to bolster defences against the north, and Thaad is a joint effort, designed and built by America’s Lockheed Martin. But like its South Korean allies, it is unwilling to alienate China, especially amid heightened tensions over the South China Sea. Thus some see the missile system as fuelling a new geopolitical stand-off, with the US flexing military might in the region to the consternation of Beijing, and potentially pushing China and North Korea closer together. “The Thaad deployment in the Korean peninsula would reinstate the Cold-War era confrontation between South Korea, US, Japan versus North Korea, China and Russia,” said Mr Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at Sejong Institute. China, he said, has previously been more willing to implement sanctions on Pyongyang, in part as a way of fending off Thaad. Now without that incentive, “China will likely ease its sanctions against North Korea, basically making the international sanctions powerless”. North Korea on Tuesday fired three ballistic missiles off its east coast in protest against the planned Thaad deployment. The timing of the Thaad decision suggests that Seoul is focusing on its security alliance with Washington. But some analysts also see it as the result of dwindling faith in China’s ability to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambition and Beijing’s potential economic retaliation against Seoul. Mr Bong Young-shik, researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, believes Ms Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s President, lost faith with Beijing when she was unable at the start of the year to reach Mr Xi Jinping, her Chinese counterpart, after what Pyongyang called its first hydrogen bomb test. “She must have felt humiliated when she could not get hold of Mr Xi through the hotline, which might have convinced her that South Korea cannot rely on China any longer,” he said. The technological progress demonstrated last month by North Korea’s intermediate-range missiles would have further encouraged Washington to push Seoul on Thaad, he added. “The latest Musudan missile launch seems to have been the trigger that pushed things over the line,” he said. Having initially shied away from Thaad, Seoul began talks with Washington in February after North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch. This prompted the international community to toughen sanctions on the communist regime. On July 14, South Korea announced plans to base the platform in the rural town of Seongju, about 300km south of Seoul, triggering a protest and hunger strikes by several local councillors. Local leaders, in a letter penned in blood, wrote: “We oppose with our lives the Thaad deployment.” The location has also angered non-locals, as the Seoul metropolitan area, which contains about half of South Korea’s 50 million population, would be out of the system’s 200km range — although it would help protect most US military bases and soldiers from a North Korean strike. South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn visited Seongju two days later on July 16 to explain the decision, only to be met with jeers from protesters, while his security team were pelted with eggs and water bottles. “Many South Koreans are disappointed as they realise Thaad is not a universal sword that can destroy any incoming North Korean missiles as the government has promoted it,” said Mr Kim Dong-yeob, professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University. “They are now wondering for whom and for what the system is deployed.” Nor are the economic repercussions lost on South Korea, where the export-oriented economy is wilting under waning demand from China and elsewhere. Alienating China, they fear, would lead to more economic distress. China signalled its displeasure when Mr Wang Yi, Beijing’s Foreign Minister, said Thaad had exceeded the Korean peninsula’s defence requirements. A ministry spokesman added that China would take “relevant measures” to safeguard its interests. Political analysts see China responding in two ways: Reducing pressure on Pyongyang, further undermining international sanctions, and raising tariff barriers on trade with South Korea. That would hurt South Korea. China buys one-quarter of South Korea’s exports, making it the country’s biggest economic partner. The value of South Korea’s stock market dropped by nearly US$3 billion (S$4 billion) in a single day after the Thaad announcement, with shares in cosmetics, casino and travel companies — heavily reliant on Chinese demand — bearing the brunt. “Deploying Thaad is a huge mistake on South Korea’s part, and if the pressure from South Korean civilians is not enough for South Korea to reconsider this decision, it could mean a historical low for China-South Korea relations,” said Mr Cui Zhiying of the Tongji University Centre for Asia-Pacific studies. “China might take steps to introduce some sanctions against companies that were supportive of the decision, and once the missile is in place, the new norm will be missiles aimed at Thaad.” Anhui Jianghuai Automobile, the Chinese carmaker, said it would cease production of an electric vehicle equipped with batteries made by South Korea’s Samsung on fears the model could be disqualified from government subsidies. “China will not likely hurry with its economic retaliation. It will gradually strengthen non-tariff barriers against Korean products rather than taking outright retaliatory measures,” said Mr Bong. “But it is such a lopsided business partnership so South Korea will suffer greatly if China starts to squeeze the Korean economy just a little.” FINANCIAL TIMES

A2: THAAD Forces Pressure

(--) Extend our Yoon 16 card. THAAD deployment causes instability in the China-SK relationship. This means that China will be unwilling to back up sanctions if THAAD is deployed.

(--) THAAD deployment will undermine support from China to reign in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions:


Yi Whan-woo, 7/8/2016 (“THAAD to ignite huge backlash from China,” Korea Times, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/07/120_208964.html, Accessed 7/17/2016, rwg)

The analysts believed that the THAAD deployment will hamper South Korea's efforts to win support from China and Russia in further pressing North Korea on giving up its nuclear ambitions. They also speculated that Beijing, Seoul's largest trading partner, may take retaliatory measures. China accounted for 26 percent of South Korea's exports of last year. China's national flag is seen at the Chinese Embassy in Seoul, Friday, while tensions are mounting between South Korea and China following the former's decision to deploy a THAAD battery here. / Yonhap In this regard, Seoul had been reluctant to answer Washington's repeated calls for the THAAD deployment on its soil before President Park Geun-hye said in January that South Korea will review the issue of whether to allow the U.S. Forces Korea to deploy the THAAD system from the perspective of national security and interest. "THAAD is likely to overshadow security in Northeast Asia as long as it is deployed and remains on the peninsula," said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University. "I'm concerned that the cooperation against Pyongyang may weaken." He proposed deploying THAAD under a condition that it will be removed if North Korea's threats abate. "In this climate, it seems to be a viable option to placate China and Russia," Park said. Kim Hong-gyu, director of Ajou University's Chinese policy research institute, echoed Park's view. "South Korea will have difficulty in discussing inter-Korean unification and other visions concerning Northeast Asia with China in the future," he said. Military analysts raised speculation that China will also regard the deployment of THAAD as South Korea's possible step to join a trilateral missile defense system with the United States and Japan. Seoul has been developing its indigenous missile shield, the Korean Air and Missile Defense System (KAMD) and opted not to be a part of the U.S.-led missile defense system. "Beijing may doubt Seoul is geared toward accelerating trilateral security alliance with Washington and Tokyo contain a rising China," said Yang Uk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum. Given that China is Pyongyang's economic lifeline and political backer, President Park has made efforts to improve the relationship with Beijing, hoping that the Chinese government will curb the North's pursuit of nuclear weapons. President Park even attended China's massive military parade in September to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, something that the leaders of other U.S. allies did not do.


(--) Also, their card doesn’t explain how dynamics will change through deployment.

(--) And, their impact should have been triggered by the announcement that THAAD will be deployed. The threat of deployment should have caused China to strengthen sanctions then.




A2: Mutual Suspicion

(--) Mutual suspicion exists now—that’s the Perletz evidence from July that THAAD has created suspicion.

(--) The plan will be decreasing suspicion by removing THAAD. The US isn’t pressuring China into anything. China will willingly cooperate on sanctions.

(--) Also, we are removing THAAD which China specifically opposes. China has already imposed some sanctions, meaning that it doesn’t completely oppose sanctions.



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