Table of contents key findings

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328. Ramanathan,V. and Feng,Y. 2008. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead. PNAS 105: 14245-14250.

329. Baettig,M.B., Wild,M. and Imboden.D.M. 2007. A climate change index: Where climate change may be most prominent in the 21^st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, l01701, doi:10.1029/2006GL028159, 2007.

330. Fyfe,J.C. and Saenko,O.A. 2007. Anthropogenic speed-up of oceanic planetary waves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L10706, doi:10.1029/2007GL029859, 2007.

331. Kettleborough,J.A., Booth,B.B.B., Stott,P.A. and Allen,M.R. 2007. Estimates of uncertainty in predictions of global mean surface temperatures. J. Climate 20:843-855.

332. Meehl,G.A., Washington,W.M., Santer,B.D. et al. 2006. Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate 19:2597-2616.

333. Plattner,G.-K., Knutti,R., Joos,F. et al. 2008. Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models. J. Climate 21:2721-2745.

334. Stott,P.A., Huntingford,C., Jones,C.D. and Kettleborough,J.A. 2008. Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming. Tellus 60B:76-82.

335. Stouffer,R.J. and Wetherald,R.T. 2007. Changes of variability in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Temperature. J. Climate 20:5455-5467.

336. Fomichev,V.I., Jonsson,A.I., De Grandpré,J. et al. 2007. Response of the middle atmosphere to CO₂ doubling: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. J. Climate 20:1121-1144.

337. Held,I.M. and Soden,B.J. 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 19:5689-5699.

338. Lorenz,D.J. and DeWeaver,E.T. 2007. Tropospause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations. JGR 112,D10119, doi:10.1029/2006JD008087, 2007.

339. Lu.J., Vecchi,G.A. and Reichler,T. 2007. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443, 2007.

340. Wu,A., Hsieh,W.W., Boer,G.J. and Zwiers,F.W. 2007. Changes in the Arctic Oscillation under increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L12710, doi:10.1029/2007GL029344, 2007.

341. Lorenz,D.J. and DeWeaver,E.T. 2007. The response of the extratropical hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 20:3470-3486.

342. Raisanen,J. 2008. Warmer climate: less or more snow? Climate Dynamics 30:307-319.

343. Hori,M.E. and Ueda,H. 2006. Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon as realized by nine coupled atmospheric-ocean GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, doi:10 1029/2005GL024961, 2006.

344. Nohara,D., Kitoh,A., Hosaka,M. and Oki,T. 2006. Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble. J. Hydrometeorology 7:1076-1089.

345. Salathe,E.P.Jr. 2006. Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33,L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006.

346. Bethke,I, Furevik,T. and Drange,H. 2006. Towards a more saline North Atlantic and a fresher Arctic under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33,L21712, doi:10.1029/2006GL027264, 2006.

347. Delworth,T.L. and Dixon,K.W. 2006. Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02606,doi:10.1029/2005GL024980,2006.

348. Driesschaert,E., Fichefet,T., Goose,H. et al. 2007. Modelling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L10707, doi:10.1029/2007GL029516, 2007.

349. Jungclaus,J.H., Haak,H., Esch,M. et al. 2006. Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L17708, doi:10.1029/2006GL026815, 2006.

350. Mikolajewicz,U., Gröger,M., Maier-Reimer,E. et al. 2006. Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions simulated with a complex earth system model. Climate Dynamics 28:599-633.

351. Schweckendiek, U., and Willebrand,J. 2005. Mechanism affecting the overturning response in global warming simulations. J. Climate 18, 4925-4936.

352. Stouffer,R.J., Yin,J., Gregory,J.M. et al. 2006. Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. J. Climate 19:1365-1387.

353. Swingedouw,D., Braconnot,P. and Marti,O. 2006. Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the melting from northern glaciers in climate change experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L07711, doi:10.1029/2006GL025785, 2006.

354. Timmermann,A., Okumura,Y., An,S.-I. et al. 2007. The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO. J. Climate 20:4899-4919.

355. Vellinga,M. and Wood,R.A. 2008. Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century. CC 91:43-63.

356. Yin,J., Schlesinger,M.E., Andronova,N.G. et al. 2006. Is a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation inrreversible? JGR 111, D12104, doi:10.1029/2005JDoo6562, 2006.

357. Zickfeld,K., Levermann,A., Morgan,M.G. et al. 2006. Expert judgement on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. CC 82:235-265.

358. Keenlyside,N.S., Latif,M., Jungclaus,J. et al. 2008. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84-87.

359. Kerr,R.A. 2008. Mother nature cools the greenhouse, but hotter times still lie ahead. Science 320:595

360. Smith,D.M., Cusack,S., Colman,A.W. et al. 2007. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796-799.

361. Wood,R. 2008. Natural ups and downs. Nature 453:43-44.

362. Latif,M. and Keenlyside,N.S. 2008. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming. PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.0710860105.

363. Meehl,G.A., Teng,H. and Branstator,G. 2006. Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics 26:549-566.

364. Meehl,G.A. and Teng,H. 2007. Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer world. Climate Dynamics 29:779-790.

365. Merryfield,W.J. 2006. Changes to ENSO under CO₂ doubling in a multimodel ensemble. J. Climate 19:4009-4027.

366. Philip,S. and van Oldenborgh,G.J. 2006. Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33,L11704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026196, 2006.

367. Arzel,O., Fichefet,T. and Goosse,H. 2006. Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modelling 12:401-415.

368. Bracegirdle,T.J., Connolley,W.M. and Turner,J. 2008. Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century. JGR 113, D03103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008933, 2008.

369. Eisenman,I., Untersteiner,N. and Wettlaufer,J.S. 2007. On the reliability of simulated Arctic sea ice in global climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L10501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029914, 2007.

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371. Holland,M.M., Finnis,J. and Serreze,M.C. 2006. Simulated Arctic Ocean freshwater budgets in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J. Climate 19:6221-6240.

372. Lefebvre,W. and Goosse,H. 2008. Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century. Climate Dynamics 30:59-76.

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379. Lambert,F., Delmonte,B., Petit,J.R. et al. 2008. Dust-climate couplings over the past 800,000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core. Nature 452:616-620.

380. Lee,J.-E., Fung,I., DePaolo,D.J. and Otto-Bliesner,B. 2008. Water isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum: New general circulation model calculations. JGR 113, D19109, doi:10.1029/2008JD009859, 2008.

381. Winckler,G., Anderson,R.F., Fleisher,M.Q. et al. 200Covariant glacial-interglacial dust fluxes in the equatorial Pacific and Antarctica. Science 320:93-96.

382. De Vernal,A. and Hillaire-Marcel,C. 2008. Natural variability of Greenland climate, vegetation, and ice volume during the past million years. Science 320:1622-1625.

383. Overpeck,J. and Cole,J. 2008. The rhythm of the rains. Nature 451:1061-1063.

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385. Willerslev,E., Cappellini.E., Boomsma,W. et al. 2007. Ancient molecules from deep ice cores reveal a forested southern Greenland. Science 317:111-114.

386. Schneidier von Deimling,T., Ganopolski,A., Held,H. and Rahmstorf,S. 2006. How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L14709, doi:10.1029/2006GL026484, 2006.

387. Broecker,W.S. 2006. Abrupt climate change revisited. Global and Planetary Change 54:211-215.

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393. Flückiger,J., Knutti,R., White,J.W.C. and Renssen,H. 2008. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climatic events. Climate Dynamics 31:633-645.

394. Grachev,A., Brook,E.J. and Severinghaus,J.P. 2007. Abrupt changes in atmospheric methane at the MIS 5b-5a transition. Geophys. Res. Lett.34, L20703, doi:10.1029/2007GL029799. 2007.

395. Overpeck,J.T., Otto-Bliesner,B.L., Miller,G.H. et al. 2006. Paleoclimate evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science 311:1747-1750

396. Trevena,J., Sijp,W.P. and England,M.H. 2008. North Atlantic Deep Water collapse triggered by a Southern Ocean meltwater pulse in a glacial climate state. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L09704, doi:10.1029/2008GL033236, 2008.

397. Wang,Y., Cheng,H., Edwards,R.L. et al. 2008. Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years. Nature 451:1090-1093.

398. Yasuhara,M., Cronin,T.M., deMenocal,P.B. et al. 2008. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems. PNAS 105:1556-1560.

399. Braun,H., Ditlevsen,P. and Chialvo,D.R. 2008. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L06703, doi:10.1029/2008GL033414, 2008.

400 . Muscheler,R. and Beer,J. 2006. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L20706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026779, 2006.

401. Schmittner,A. and Galbraith,E.D. 2008. Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes. Nature 456:373-376.

2. 
   Holocene
   

403. Carlson,A.E., Legrande,A.N., Oppo,D.W. et al. 2008. Rapid early Holocene deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. Nature Geoscience 1:620-624.

404. De Vernal,A. and Hillaire-Marcel,C. 2006. Provincialism in trends and high frequency changes in the northwest North Atlantic during the Holocene. Global and Planetary Change 54:263-290.

405. Fisher,D., Dyke,A., Koerner,R. et al. 2006. Natural variability of Arctic sea ice over the Holocene. EOS 87:273, 276.

406. Klieven,H.F., Kissel,C., Laj,C. et al. 2008. Reduced North Atlantic deep water coeval with the glacial Lake Agassiz freshwater outburst. Science 319:60-63.

407. Tian, J., D. M. Nelson and F.S. Hu. 2006. Possible linkages of late-Holocene drought in the North American midcontinent to Pacific Decadal Oscillation and solar activity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028169.

408. Viau,A.E., Gajewski,K., Sawada,M.C. and Fines, P. 2006. Millennial-scale temperature variations in North America during the Holocene. JGR 111, D09102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006031, 2006.

409. Hodgson,D.A., Bentley,M.J., Roberts,S.J. et al. 2006. Examining Holocene stability of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. EOS 87:305.

2. 
   Past Two Millennia
   

411. D’Arrigo,R., Wilson,R. and Jacoby,G. 2006. On the long-term context for the late twentieth century warming. JGR 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352, 2006.

412. Hegerl,G.C., Crowley,T.J., Allen,M. et al. 2007. Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J. Climate 20:650-662.

413. Hunt,B.G. 2006. The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climate variability. Climate Dynamics 27:677-694.

414. Li.B., Nychka,D.W., and Ammann,C.M. 2007. The ‘hockey stick’ and the 1990s: A statistical perspective on reconstructing hemispheric temperatures. Tellus 59A:591-598.

415. Mann,M.E., Zhang,Z., Hughes,M.K. et al. 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS 105:13252-13257.

416. Mann,M.E., Rutherford,S., Wahl,E. and Ammann,C. 2007. Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods. JGR 112,D12109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007.

417. Moberg,A., Mohammad,R. and Mauritsen,T. 2008. Analysis of the Moberg (2005) hemispheric temperature reconstruction. Climate Dynamics 31:957-971.

419. Wahl,E.R. and Ammann,C.M. 2007. Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, and Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy evidence. CC 85:33-69.

420. Wilson,R., Tudhope,A., Brohan,P. et al. 2006. Two-hundred-fifty years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperaturs. JGR 111:C10007, doi:10.1029/2005JC003188, 2006.

421. Wilson,R., D’Arrigo,R., Buckly,B. et al. 2007. A matter of divergence: Tracking recent warming at hemispheric scales using tree ring data. JGR 112,D17103, doi:10.1029/2006JD008318, 2007.

422. Antoniades,D., Crawley,C., Douglas,M.S.V. et al. 2007. Abrupt environmental change in Canada’s northernmost lake inferred from fossil diatom and pigment stratigraphy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L18708, doi:10.1029/2007GL030947, 2007.

423. Antoniades,D., Crawley,C., Douglas,M.S.V. et al. 2008. Reply to comment by K. Gajewski on ‘Abrupt environmental change in Canada’s northernmost lake”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08702, doi:10.1029/2007GL032889, 2008.

424. Gajewski,K. 2008. Comment on ‘Abrupt environmental change in Canada’s northernmost lake inferred from fossil diatom and pigment stratigraphy” by Dermot Antoniades et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08701, doi:10.1029/2007GL032316, 2008.

425. Herwijer,C., Seager,R., Cook,E.R. and Emile-Geay,J. 2007. North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data. J. Climate 20:1353-1374.

426. Michels,A., Laird,K.R., Wilson,S.E. et al. 2007. Multidecadal to millennial-scale shifts in drought conditions on the Canadian Prairies over the past six millennia: Implications for future drought assessment. GCB 13:1295-1307.

427. Osborn,T.J. and Briffa,K.R. 2006. The spatial extent of the 20^th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311:841-844.

428. Shindell,D.T., Faluvegi,G., Miller,R.L. et al. 2006. Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468, 2006.

429. Smol,J.P and Douglas,M.S.V. 2007. Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds. PNAS 104:12395-12397.

430. Stahle,D.W., Fye,F.K., Cook,E.R. and Griffin,R.D. 2007. Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since A.D. 1300. CC 83:133-149.

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432. Zhang,P., Cheng,H., Edwards,R.L. et al. 2008. A test of climate, sun and culture relationships froman 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 322:940-943.

5.2 Trends of the past century

5.2.1 Temperature

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434. Hansen,J., Sato,M., Ruedy,R. et al. 2006: Global temperature change. PNAS 103:14288-14293.

435. Pielke,R.A. Sr., Davey,C.A., Niyogi,D. et al. 2007. Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends. JGR 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2007JD008229, 2007.

436. Rayner,N.A., Brohan,P., Parker,D.E. et al. 2006. Improved analysis of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate 19: 446-469.

437. Schiermeier,Q. 2008. Climate anomaly is an artifact. Nature 453:569.

438. Thompson,D.W.,. Kennedy,J.J., Wallace,J.M. and Jones,P.D. 2008. A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature. Nature 453:646-650.

439. Allen,R.J., and Sherwood, S.C. 2008. Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds. Nature Geoscience 1:399-403.

440. Christy,J.R., Norris,W.B., Spencer,R.W. and Hnilo,J.J. 2007. Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements. JGR 112, D06102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006881, 2007.

441. Douglass,D.H., Christy,J.R., Pearson,B.D. and Singer,S.F. 2007. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Int. J. Climatology 28:1693-1702.

442. Haimberger,L., Tavolato,C. and Sperka,S. 2008. Toward elimination of the warm bias in historic radiosonde temperature records – some new results from a comprehensive intercomparison of upper-air data. J. Climate 21: 4587-4606.

443. McCarthy,M.P., Titchner,H.A., Thorne, P.W. et al. 2008. Assessing bias and uncertainty in the HadAT-adjusted radiosonde climate record. J. Climate 21:817-832.

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445. Santer,B.D., Thorne,P.W., Haimberger,L. et al. 2008. Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatology 28:1703-1722.

446. Thorne, P.W. 2008. The answer is blowing in the wind. Nature Geoscience 1:347-348.

447. Turner, J., Lachlan-Cope, A., Colwell, S. et al. 2006. Significant warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere. Science 311: 1914-1917.

448. Vinnikov,K.Y., Grody, N.C., Robock,A. et al. 2006. Temperature trends at the surface and in the troposphere. JGR 111, D03106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006392, 2006.

449. Laštovička,J., Akmaev,R.A., Beig,G. et al. 2006. Global change in the upper atmosphere. Science 314:1253-1254.

450. Qian,L., Roble,R., Solomon,S.C. and Kane,T.J. 2006. Calculated and observed climate change in the thermosphere, and a prediction for solar cycle 24. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23705, doi:10.1029/2006GL027185.

451. Shine,K.P., Barnett,J.J. and Randel,W.J. 2008. Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: The effect of increasing CO₂ on the weighting function. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02710, doi:10.1029/2007GL032218, 2008.

452. Carson,M. and Harrison,D.E. 2008. Is the upper ocean warming? Comparisons of 50-year trends from different analyses. J. Climate 21: 2259-2268.

453. Carton,J.A. and Santorelli,A. 2008. Global decadal upper-ocean heat content as viewed in nine analyses. J. Climate 21:6015-6035.

454. Domingues,C.M., Church,J.A., White,N.J. et al. 2008. Improved estimates of upper ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453:1090-1093.

455. Gouretski,V. and Koltermann,K.P. 2007. How much is the ocean really warming? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01610, doi:10.1029/2006GL027834, 2007.

456. Lyman,J.M., Willis,J.K. and Johnson,G.C. 2006. Recent cooling of the upper ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18604, doi:10.1029/2006GL027033, 2006.

457. MacKenzie,B.R. and Schiedek,D. 2007. Daily ocean monitoring since the 1860s shows record warming of northern European seas. GCB 13:1335-1347.

458. Palmer,M.D., Haines,K., Tett,S.F.B. and Ansell,T.J. 2007. Isolating the signal of ocean global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L03610, doi:10.1029/2007GL031712, 2007.

459. Reilly,M. 2006. Cooling oceans buck global trend. New Scientist Oct 7, p14.

460. Schiermeier,Q. 2006. Oceans cool off in hottest years. Nature 442:854-855.

461. Willis,J.K., Lyman,J.M., Johnson,G.C. and Gilson,J. 2007. Correction to “Recent cooling of the upper ocean”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L16601, doi:10.1029/2007GL030323, 2007.

462. Beltrami,H., Bourlon,E., Kellman,L. and González-Rouco,J.F. 2006. Spatial patterns of ground heat gain in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06717,doi: 10.1029/2006GL025676, 2006.

463. Austin,J.A. and Colman,S.M. 2007. Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021, 2007.

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465. Grant,A.N., Bronnimann,S., and Haimberger,L. 2008. Recent Arctic warming vertical structure contested. Arising from: R.G. Graverson, T. Mauritsen, M. Tjernstrom, E. Kallen and G. Svensson Nature 451, 53-56 (2008). Nature 455:E2-E3.

466. Graversen,R.G., Mauritsen,T., Tjernstrom,M. et al. 2008. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature 541:53-56.

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468. Rayback, S.A. and Henry, G.H.R. 2006. Reconstruction of summer temperature for a Canadian high Arctic site from retrospective analysis of the dwarf shrub, Cassiope tetragona. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 38, 228-238.

469. Serreze,M.C. and Francis,J.A. 2006. The Arctic amplification debate. CC 76:241-264.

470. Szeto,K.K. 2008. On the extreme variability and change of cold-season temperatures in Northwest Canada. J. Climate 21:94-113.

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