Impacts 6.1 Hydrological resources and events

735. De Wit, M. and Stankiewicz,J. 2006. Changes in surface water supply across Africa with predicted climatic change. Science 311:1917-1920.

736. Sheffield,J. and Wood,E.F. 2008. Global trends and variability in soil moisture and drought characteristics, 1950-2000, from observation-driven simulations of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. J. Climate 21:432-458.

737. Hughes,M.K. and Diaz,H.F. 2008: Climate variability and change in the drylands of western North America. Global and Planetary Change 64:111-118.

738. Mareuil,A., Leconte,R., BrissetteF. and Minville,M. 2007. Impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of floods in the Châteauguay River basin, Canada. Can. J. Civ. Eng. 34: 1048-1060

739. McBean,E. and Motiee,H. 2008. Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: A long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12:239-255.

740. Roberts,E., Stewart,R.E. and Lin,C.A. 2006. A study of drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairies. Atmosphere-Ocean 44:331-345.

741. Scibek J. and Allen, D. M. 2006. Comparing modeled responses of two high-permeability unconfined aquifers to predicted climate change. Global and Planetary Change 50: 50-62.

742. Scibek,J., Allen,D.M., Cannon,A.J. and Whitfield,P.H. 2007. Groundwater-surface water interaction under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model. J. Hydrology 333:165-181.

743. Seager,R., Ting,M., Held,I. et al. 2007. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316:1181-1184.

744. Krinner,G., Magand,O., Simmonds,I. et al. 2007. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Climate Dynamics 28:215-230.

745. Prowse,T.D., Wrona,F.J., Reist,J.D. et al. 2007. Climate change effects on hydroecology of Arctic freshwater ecosystems. Ambio 35:347358.

746. Uotila,P., Lynch,A.H., Cassano,J.J. and Cullather,R.I. 2007. Changes in Antarctic net precipitation in the 21^st century based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model scenarios. JGR 112. D101017, doi:10.1029/2006JD007482, 2007.

747. Del Genio,A.D., Yao,M.-S. and Jona,J. 2007. Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L16703, doi:10.1029/2007GL030525, 2007.

748. Allan, R.P. and Soden,B.J. 2008. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321:1481-1484.

749. Mailhot,A., Duchesne,S., CayaD. and Talbot,G. 2007. Assessment of future change in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). Journal of Hydrology 347:197-210.

750. Sun,Y., Solomon,S., Dai,A. and Portmann,R.W. 2007. How often will it rain? J. Climate 20:4801-4818.

751. Trapp,R.J., Diffenbaugh,N.S., Brooks,H.E. et al. 2007. Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21^st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. PNAS 104:19719-19723.

752. Wang,J. and X. Zhang, 2008. Downscaling and projection of winter extreme daily precipitation over North America. J. Climate 21: 923-936.

753. Aherne,J., Larssen,T., Cosby,B.J. and Dillon,P.J. 2006. Climate variability and forecasting surface water recovery from acidification: Modelling drought-induced sulphate release from wetlands. Science of the Total Environment 365:186-199.

754. Christensen,M.R., Graham,M.D., Vinebrooke,R.D. et al. 2006. Multiple anthropogenic stressors cause ecological surprises in boreal lakes. GCB 12:3216-2322.

755. Wright, R.F., Aherne,J., Bishop,K. et al, 2006. Modelling the effect of climate change on recovery of acidified freshwaters: Relative sensitivity of individual processes in the MAGIC model. Science of the Total Environment 365:154-166.

756. Diffenbaugh,N.S., Krupke,C.H., White,M.A. and Alexander,C.E. 2008. Global warming presents new challenges for maize pest management. Environmental Research Letters 3 044007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044007.

757. Funk,C., Dettinger,M.D., Michaelson,J.C. et al. 2008. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. PNAS 105:11081-11086.

758. Liu,J., Fritz,S., van Wesenbeeck,C.F.A. et al. 2008. A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Global and Planetary Change 64:222-235.

759. Lobell,D.B., Burke,M.B., Tebaldi,C. et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607-610.

760. Lobell,D.B. and Burke,M.B. 2008. Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation. Environmental Research Letters 3, 034007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034007.

761. Pielke,R.A. Sr., Adegoke,J.O., Chase,T.N. et al. 2007. A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate system and in climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 141:234-254.

762. Sanghi,A. and Mendelsohn,R. 2008. The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India. Global Environmental Change 18:655-665.

763. Tebaldi,C. and Lobell,D.B. 2008. Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08705, doi:10.1029/2008GL033423, 2008.

764. Zavala,J.A., Casteel,C.L., DeLucia,E.H. and Berenbaum,M.R. 2008. Anthropogenic increase in carbon dioxide compromises plant defense against invasive insects. PNAS 105:5129-5233.

765. Brassard, J.P. and B. Singh. 2007. Effects of climate change and CO₂ increase on potential agricultural production in Southern Québec, Canada. Climate Research 34: 105-117.

766. McKeown,A.W., Warland,J. and McDonald,M.R. 2006. Long-term climate and weather patterns in relation to crop yield: A minireview. Can. J. Bot. 84:1031-1036.

767. Mendelsohn,R. and Reinsborough,M. 2007. A Ricardian analysis of US and Canadian farmland. CC 81:9-17.

768. Neilsen,D., Smith,C.A.S., Frank,G. et al. 2007. Potential impacts of climate change on water availability for crops in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia. Can. J. Soil Science 86:921-936.

769. White,M.A., Diffenbaugh,N.S., Jones,G.V. et al. 2006. Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21^st century. PNAS 103:11217-11222.

6.3 Natural Ecosystems

6.3.1 Global Ecosystems

770. Bakkenes,M., Eickhout,B. and Alkemade,R. 2006. Impacts of different climate stabilization scenarios on plant species in Europe. Global Environmental Change 16:19-28.

771. Huntley,B., Collingham,Y.C.,, Green,R.E. et al. 2006. Potential impacts of climate change upon geographical distribution of birds. Ibis 148:8-28.

772. Jetz,W., Wilcove,D.S. and Dobson,A.P. 2007. Projected impacts of climate and land-use on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biology 5:1211-1219.

773. Lavorel,S., Flannigan,M.D., Lambin,E.F. and Scholes,M.C. 2006. Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:43-53.

774. McKenney,D.W., Pedlar,J.H., Lawrence,K. et al. 2007. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. Bioscience 57:939-948.

775. Scholze,M., Knorr,W., Arnell,N.W. and Prentice,C.I. 2006. A climate-change risk analysis for world ecoystems. PNAS 103:13116-13120.

776. Suttle,K.B. , Thomsen,M.A. and Power,M.E. 2007. Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate. Science 315: 40-642.

777. Alsos, I.G., Eidesen, P.B., Ehrich, D. et al. 2007. Frequent long-distance plant colonization in the changing Arctic. Science 316:1601-1608.

778. Balanyá,J., Oller,J.M., Huey,R.B. et al. 2006. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura. Science 313:1773 - 1775.

779. Botkin,D.B., Saxe,H., Araújo,M.B.et al. 2007. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57:227-236.

780. Malcolm,J.R., Liu,C., Neilson,R.P. et al. 2006. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology 20: 2: 538-548.

781. Morris,S.J., Bohm,S., Haile-Miriam,S. and Paul,E.A. 2007. Evaluation of carbon accrual in afforested agricultural soils. GCB 12:1145-1156.

782. Schwartz,M.W., Iverson,L.R., Prasad,A.M. et al. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87: 1611-1615.

783. Sekercioglu,C.H., Schneider,S.H., Fay,J.P. and Loarie,S.R. 2008. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conservation Biology 22:140-150.

784. Tewksbury,J.J., Huey,R.B. and Deutsch,C.A. 2008. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320:1296-1297.

785. Betts,R.A., Boucher,O., Collins,M. et al. 2007. Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide. Nature 448:1037-1040.

786. Cleland,E.E., Chiarello,N.R., Loarie,S.R. et al. 2006. Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem. PNAS 103:13740-13744.

787. Taylor,G., Tallis,M.J., Giardina,C.P. et al. 2008. Future atmospheric CO₂ leads to delayed autumnal senescence. GCB 14:264-275.

6.3.2 Tropical Terrestrial Ecosystems

788. Colwell,R.K., Brehm,G., Cardelus,C.L. et al. 2008. Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322:258-260.

789. Cook,K.H. and Vizy,E.K. 2008. Effects of twenty-first century climate change on the Amazon rain forest. J. Climate 21: 542-560.

790. Deutsch,C.A., Tewksbury,J.J., Huey,R.B. et al. 2008. Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. PNAS 105:6668-6672.

791. Fox,D. 2007. Back to the no-analog future? Science 316:823-825.

792. Li,W., Dickinson,R.E., Fu,R. et al. 2007. Future precipitation changes and their implications for tropical peatlands. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01403, doi:10.1029/2067GL028364, 2007.

793. Wilson,S.K., Graham,N.A.J., Pratchett,M.S. et al. 2006. Multiple disturbances and the global degradation of coral reefs: Are reef fishes at risk or resilent? GCB 12:2220-2234.

6.3.3 Arctic ecosystems

794. Kaplan,J.O. and New,M. 2006. Arctic climate change with a 2°C global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change. CC 79:213-241.

795. Reist,J.D., Wrona,F.J., Prowse,T.D. et al. 2006. An overview of effects of climate change on selected Arctic freshwater and anadromous fishes. Ambio 35:381-387.

796. Reist,J.D., Wrona,F.J., Prowse,T.D. et al. 2006. Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for Arctic freshwater and anadromous species. Ambio 35:402-410.

797. Walker,M.D., Wahren,C.H., Hollister,R.D. et al. 2006. Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome. PNAS 103:1342-1346.

798. Arrigo,K.R., van Dijken,G. and Pabi,S. 2008. Impact of a shrinking Arctic ice cover on marine primary production. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19603, doi:10.1029/2008GL035028, 2008.

799. Dyck,M.G., Soon,W., Baydack,R.K. et al. 2007. Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecological Complexity 4:73-84.

800. Laidre,K.L., Stirling,I., Lowry,L.F. et al. 2008. Quantifying the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change. Ecological Applications 18:S97-S125.

801. Moore,S.E. and Huntington,H.P. 2008. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: Impacts and resilience. Ecological Applications 18:S157-S165.

802. Tews,J., Ferguson,M.A.D. and Fahrig,L. 2007. Potential net effects of climate change on high Arctic Peary caribou: Lessons form a spatially explicit simulation model. Ecological Modeling 207:85-98.

803. Henry,H.A.L. 2008. Climate change and soil freezing dynamics: Historical trends and projected changes. CC 87:421-434.

804. Sharma,S., Jackson,D.A., Minns,C.K. and Shuter,B.J. 2007. Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change? GCB 13:2052-2064.

805. Wrona,F.J., Prowse,T.D., Reist,J.D. et al. 2006. Climate change effects on aquatic biota, ecosystem structure and function. Ambio 35:359-368.

806. Danby,R.K. and Hik,D.S. 2007. Responses of white spruce (Picea glauca) to experimental warming at a subarctic alpine treeline. GCB 13:437-451.

807. Girardin,M.P. and Mudelsee,M. 2008. Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity. Ecological Applications 18:391-406.

808. Gray,D.R. 2008. The relationship between climate and outbreak characteristics of the spruce budwarm in eastern Canada. CC 87:361-383.

809. Hamann, A. and T. Wang. 2006. Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology 87:11: 2773-2786.

810. Hood,G.A. and Bayley,S.E. 2008. Beaver (Castor canadensis) mitigate the effects of climate on the area of open water in boreal wetlands in western Canada. Biological Conservation 141:556-567.

811. Xiao,J. and Zhuang,Q. 2007. Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests. Enviromental Research Letters 2, 044003 (6pp).

812. Rigby,J.R. and Porporato,A. 2008. Spring frost risk in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L12703, doi:10.1029/2008GL033955, 2008.

6.3.5 Oceans

813. Anthony,K.R.N., Kline,D.I., Diaz-Pulido,G. et al. 2008. Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. PNAS 105:17442-17446.

814. Carpenter,K.E., Abrar,M., Aeby,G. et al. 2008. One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts. Science 321:560-564.

815. Goulet, T.L. 2006. Most corals may not change their symbionts. Marine Ecology Progress Series 321:1-7.

816. Oschlies,A., Schulz,K.G., Riebesell,U. and Schmittner,A. 2008. Simulated 21^st century’s increase in oceanic suboxia by CO₂-enhanced biotic carbon export. GBC 22, GB4008, doi:10.1029/2007GB003147, 2008.

817. Cao,L., Caldeira,K. and Jain,A.K. 2007. Effects of carbon dioxide and climate change on ocean acidification and carbonate mineral saturation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L05607, doi:10.1029/2006GL028605.

818. Cao,L. and Caldeira,K. 2008. Atmospheric CO₂ stabilization and ocean acidification. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19609, doi:10.1029/2008GL035072, 2008.

819. Fabry,V.J. Marine calcifiers in a high-CO₂ ocean. Science 320:1020-1021.

820. Gazeau,F., Quiblier,C., Jansen,J.M. et al. 2007. Impact of elevated CO₂ on shellfish calcification. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07603, doi:10.1029/2006GL028554, 2007.

821. Hall-Spencer,J.M., Rodolfo-Metalpa,R., Martin,S. et al. 2008. Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acididication. Nature 454:96-99.

822. Henderson,C. 2006. Paradise Lost. New Scientist August 5:29-33.

823. Hester,K.C., Peltzer,E.T., Kirkwood,W.J.and Brewer,P.G. 2008. Unanticipated consequences of ocean acidification: A noisier ocean at lower pH. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19601, doi:10.1029/2008GL034913, 2008.

824. Manzello,D.P., Kleypas,J.A., Budd,D.A. et al. 2008. Poorly cemented coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific: Possible insights into reef development in a high-CO₂ world. PNAS 105:10450-10455.

825. McNeil,B.I. and Matear, R.J. 2007. Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification. Tellus 59B, 191-198.

826. Caldiera,K., Archer,D., Barry,J.P. et al. 2007. Comment on “Modern-age buildup of CO₂ and its effect on seawater acidity and salinity” by Hugo A. Loáiciga. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L18608, doi:10.1029/2006GL027288, 2007.

827. Iglesias-Rodriguez,M.D., Halloran,P.R., Rickaby,R.E.M. et al. 2008. Phytoplankton calcification in a high-CO₂ world. Science 320:336-339.

828. Iglesias-Rodriguez,M.D., Buitenhuis,E.T., Raven,J.A. et al. 2008. Response to comment on “Phytoplankton calcification in a high-CO₂ world”. Science 322:1466c.

829. Loáiciga,H.A. 2007. Reply to comment by K. Caldeira et al. on “Modern-age buildup of CO₂ and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L18603, doi:10.1029/2006GL027506, 2007.

830. Riebeseel,U., Bellerby,R.G.J., Engel,A. et al. 2008. Comment on “Phytoplankton calcification in a high-CO₂ world”. Science 322:1466.

6.4 Cryosphere and sea levels

6.4.1 Permafrost and hydrates

831. Delisle,G. 2007. Near-surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21^st century? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L09503, doi:10.1029/2007GL029323, 2007.

832. Duchesne,C., Wright,J.F., and Ednie,M. 2008. High-resolution numerical modeling of climate change impacts to permafrost in the vicinities of Inuvik, Norman Wells and Fort Simpson, NT, Canada. In Proc. Ninth International Conference on Permafrost (D.L. Kane and K.M. Hinkel, Eds). Fairbanks Alaska. Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Vol.1, pp. 385-390.

833. Froese,D.G., Westgate,J.A., Reyes,A.V. et al. 2008. Ancient permafrost and a future, warmer Arctic. Science 321:1648.

834. Sushama,L., Laprise,R., Caya,D. et al. 2007. An RCM projection of soil thermal and moisture regimes for North American permafrost zones. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L20711, doi:10.1029/2007GL031385, 2007.

835. Walker,G. 2007. A world melting from the top down. Nature 446:718-722.

836. Woo,M.-K., Mollinga,M. and Smith,S.L. 2007. Climate warming and active layer thaw in the boreal and tundra environments of the Mackenzie Valley. Can. J. Earth Science 44: 733-743.

837. Yi,S., Woo,M.-K. and Arain,M.A. 2007. Impacts of peat and vegetation on permafrost degradation under climate warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L16504, doi:10.1029/2007GL030550, 2007.

838. Fyfe,J.G. and Weaver,A.J. 2006. The effect of potential future climate change on the marine methane hydrate stability zone. J. Climate 19:5903-5917.

2. 
   Land ice and sea level rise
   

840. Stammer, D. 2008. Response of the global ocean to Greenland and Antarctic ice melting. JGR 113, C06022, doi:10.1029/2006JC004079, 2008.

841. Vaughn,D.G. and Arthern,R. 2007. Why is it hard to predict the future of ice sheets? Science 315:1503-1504.

842. Kehrwald,N.M., Thompson,L.G., Tandong,Y. et al. 2008. Mass loss on Himalayan glacier endangers water resources. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L22503, doi:10.1029/2008GL03556, 2008.

843. Pagli,C. and Sigmundsson,F. 2008. Will present day glacial retreat increase volcanic activity? Stress induced by recent glacier retreat and its effect on magnetism at the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L09304, doi:10.1029/2008GL033510, 2008.

844. Zemp,M., Haeberli,W., Hoelzle,M. and Paul,F. 2006. Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L13504, doi:10.1029/2006GL026319, 2006.

845. Holgate,S., Jevrejeva,S., Woodworth,P. and Brewer,S. 2007. Comment on “A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise”. Science 317:1866b.

846. Horton,R., Herweijer,C., Rosenzweig,C. et al. 2008. Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02715, doi:10.1029/2007GL032486, 2008.

847. Rahmstorf,S. 2007. A semi-empirical approach to projected future sea-level rise. Science. 315:368-370.

848. Raper, S.B. and Braithwaite, R.J. 2006. Low sea-level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming. Nature 439:311-313.

849. Meier,M.F., Dyurgerov,M.B., Rick,U.K. et al. 2007. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21^st century. Science 317:1064-1067.

850. Rahmstorf,S. 2007. Response to comments on “A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise”. Science 317:1866d.

851. Schmith,T., Johnsen,S. and Thejll,P. 2007. Comment on “A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise”. Science 317:1866c.

852. Gregory, J.M. and P. Huybrechts. 2006. Ice sheet contributions to future sea level changes. Phil Trans Royal Soc A 364:1709-1731.

853. Pfeffer,W.T., Harper,J.T. and O'Neel,S. 2008. Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321:1340-1343.

854. Rohling,E.J., Grant,K., Hemleben,C. et al. 2008. High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period. Nature Geoscience 1:38-42.

855. Fitzgerald,D.M., Fenster,M.S., Argow,B.A. and Buynevich,I.V. 2008. Coastal impacts due to sea-level rise. Annual Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36:601-647.

856. Nicholls,R. and Tol,R.S.J. 2006. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. 364:1073-1095.

857. Ranjan,P., Kazama,S. and Sawamoto,M. 2006. Effects of climate change on coastal fresh groundwater resources. Global Environmental Change 16:388-399.

858. Slott,J.M., Murray,A.B., Ashton,A.D. and Crowley,T.J. 2006. Coastline responses to changing storm patterns. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18404, doi:10.1029/2006GL027445, 2006.

2. 
   Sea ice
   

860. Overland,J. E., and Wang,M. 2007. Future regional Arctic sea ice declines. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L17705, doi:10.1029/2007GL030808.

861. Teng,H., Washington,W., Meehl,G. et al. 2006. Twenty-first century Arctic climate change in the CCSM3 IPCC scenario simulations. Climate Dynamics 26: 601-616

862. Dumas,J.D., Flato,G.M. and Brown,R.B. 2006. Future projections of landfast ice thickness and duration in the Canadian Arctic. J. Climate 19:5175-5189.

863. Serreze,M.C., Holland,M.M. and Stroeve,J. 2007. Perspectives on the Arctic’s shrinking sea-ice cover. Science 315:1533-1536.

864. Schiermeier,Q. 2007. The new face of the Arctic. Nature 446:133-135.