Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
AT: Iran Strikes (By the US)
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- 2. No impact to Iran retaliating against a military attack
- 3. No risk of Iran strikes—any discussion is just political posturing that isn’t taken seriously
AT: Iran Strikes (By the US)1. Obama won’t strike Iran – even if it gets nuclear weapons, Obama’s preferred option is diplomacy Donald Lambro 2/11/08 (The Washington Times, “Iraq aside, Democrats mum on foreign policy”, lexis) Last year, though, Mrs. Clinton came under fire from antiwar activists when she voted for a bipartisan Senate resolution condemning the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization that was responsible for roadside bombings and other attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. Antiwar critics saw the vote as an attempt by the Bush administration to prepare to go to war against Iran unless it abandoned its ambitions to develop nuclear weapons. Mr. Obama opposed the resolution but missed the vote because he was campaigning. Many of Mr. Obama 's foreign policy advisers are also from the Clinton administration, including former National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, Susan E. Rice, an assistant secretary of state during Mr. Clinton's second term, and former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig. Also on his team are Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, Zbigniew Brezezinski, and former National Security Agency counterterrorism specialist Richard Clarke. A key foreign policy clash that developed during debates between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama arose when he called for a change in dealing with rogue nations, saying he would hold unconditional talks with leaders of Iran, North Korea and Cuba. Mrs. Clinton called his proposal "irresponsible and, frankly, naive." Mr. Obama shot back, charging that her approach was outdated and represented a continuation of the Bush-Cheney policies. Mr. Obama 's foreign policy emphasizes personal diplomacy, economic development and humanitarian aid, and he rejects the pre-emptive policies of the Bush administration that led to the war in Iraq. "For most of our history, our crises have come from using force when we shouldn't, not by failing to use force," he told the New York Times. "The United States is trapped by the Bush-Cheney approach to diplomacy that refuses to talk to leaders we don't like. Not talking doesn't make us look tough; it makes us look arrogant," he says on his campaign Web site. But Mr. O'Hanlon thinks Mr. Obama 's eagerness for one-on-one meetings with leaders of rogue nations "would cheapen the value of a presidential summits." "You don't want a president using his time by being lied to by foreign leaders. Hillary would be much more pragmatic. She suggested midlevel talks with Iran. Obama would look weak, and Hillary would not look weak," he said. 2. No impact to Iran retaliating against a military attack Chuck Freilich, Jerusalem Post, June 26, 2008, p. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1214132686901&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull There is little doubt that Iran will respond to a direct attack, or a blockade, but its options, heated rhetoric notwithstanding, are actually limited. What can it truly do? Attack American ships, block the Gulf? Maybe a pinprick to make it look good at home, but beyond that, the risks of escalation and the costs to Iran's economy are too great. Iran is extremist, not irrational. It may very well cause the US greater difficulty in Iraq, and increased terror can be expected against US and Western targets. It is highly unlikely, however, that Iran would be willing to go beyond limited actions and risk direct military escalation, not when the US has 150,000 soldiers on its doorstep. Moreover, US preparations can greatly reduce, though not eliminate, the dangers of Iran's potential responses. Oil prices will further skyrocket and Iran could add to the crisis by cutting output, but anything beyond temporary measures would be tantamount to cutting off its nose to spite its face. There will be a strong public reaction in the Moslem world, though Arab regimes will be quietly relieved to be free of a nuclear Iran. If the US plays out the diplomatic route first, international reaction will be muted. 3. No risk of Iran strikes—any discussion is just political posturing that isn’t taken seriously Steve Clemons, 7/23, 2010, The Progressive Realist, “Stop Hyperventilating: Obama Will Not choose War with Iran,” http://progressiverealist.org/blogpost/stop-hyperventilating-obama-will-not-choose-war-iran, RG While there are individuals in the Obama administration who are flirting with the possibility of military action against Iran, they are fewer in number than existed in the Bush administration. They are surrounded by a greater number of realists who are working hard to find a way to reinvent America's global leverage and power -- and who realize that a war with Iran ends that possibility and possibly spells an end to America presuming to be the globally predominant power it has been. There are also political opportunists in the Obama administration -- who after a horrible year of relations between the President and Israeli Prime Minister -- want to spin the deep tensions over Israel-Palestine away long enough to get through the next set of 2010 elections. There are many who worry too much that Obama's recent highly scripted, positive, buddy-buddy encounter with Benjamin Netanyahu means that the United States is acquiescing to Israel's view of Iran, of settlements, and of the world. This would be a misread of the situation. Come December 2010, my hunch is that all of those who have recently placed faith in a White House posture of Israel uber alles will be as disappointed in the Obama White House as many other interest groups have been who thought that Obama would deliver on their single issue. In this case, Obama will stick to script and offer a similar line as Ariel Sharon once offered after being criticized by his supporters on Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza: "One has to weigh many different options in determining our nation's security needs Things look different when sitting behind the Prime Minister's desk." This will be true for Barack Obama as well -- who knows that there is no winning outcome for the US and its allies if he chooses a military course with Iran, even if some of his team seem to enjoy flirting with that option. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. 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