Current oil shocks are more gradual and the economy is more resilient.
The Economist 5-29-08
[“The oil shock: Pistol pointed at the heart,” http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11455807]
Despite these disturbing precedents, until now the risk of a recurrence seemed almost as remote as that fated decade. More recent experience lulled fears. Between early 2004 and the spring of 2006, the real oil price in sterling doubled. That was a substantial shock by any reckoning, yet the economy absorbed it without undue damage. Output growth slowed in 2005, but GDP still expanded by nearly 2%, and then grew at an above-trend rate of around 3% a year in 2006 and 2007. There were several reasons why the economy coped better with the oil shock of 2004-06. For one thing, the rise in oil prices in that period was smaller and more gradual than the spectacular jumps of the 1970s. Furthermore, it was prompted mainly by rising demand in China and other emerging economies rather than by disruptions to supply. The economy has in any case become less vulnerable to oil shocks of any description because it is less oil-intensive than it was, using half the oil per unit of GDP that it did in the 1970s, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
AT: Organized Crime
1. No impact: organized crime will just move elsewhere if regulated
Committee on the Judiciary, committee in the House of Representatives, 2000
[Committee on the Judiciary, forty members of the House, “Threat Posed by the Convergence of Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Terrorism”, Subcommittee on Crime, December 13, 2000, http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/judiciary/hju68324.000/hju68324_0f.htm]
Moreover, due to the increased cooperation among transnational crime groups, the threats emanating from criminal groups which are already known by law enforcement suddenly move to a more borderless dimension. More and more investigations will have international implications, which makes these investigations both more lengthy and costly, and could ultimately result in less efficiency. The current difficulties of investigating and monitoring human trafficking activities around the globe clearly illustrate these problems.
2. Attempts to target organized crime fail – groups shift to other crimes
Loree, writer for Trends in Organized Crime, 2002
[Don Loree, involved with anti-organized crime efforts, “Organized crime: Changing concepts and realities for the police”, Trends in Organized Crime, June 2002, http://www.springerlink.com/content/trgc4ytha3fbbcy4/]
The growth in the extent and scope of organized crime activity, especially in the transnational sphere, is particularly linked to improved transportation and communications, for example air travel, the internet and electronic banking. These have markedly reduced barriers, have opened new opportunities for organized crime expansion and diversification and, in the process, have created new victims. How many people have not received an invitation by mail or e-mail to participate in some form of international money scam? How many do not know someone, especially a senior, who has been approached by a telemarketing scam? The most successful organized crime enterprises are now linked, dynamically and flexibly. They are able to shift quickly from one commodity to another and can and do take advantage of the most up to date technology; often as good or better than that of the police who are trying to fight them.
3. Increased focus on human trafficking trades off with other crime enforcement
US Marshals Service, part of the USFG working on civil authority, 2009
[USMS, “FY 2010 Performance Budget”, April 2009, http://www.usdoj.gov/jmd/2010justification/office/fy10-usms-justification.doc]
The flow of human trafficking and narcotics into the United States, along with smuggling of illegal firearms and criminal monetary proceeds out of the United States has had a devastating effect on the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The violence perpetrated by organizations and elements associated with these criminal activities has brought greater federal law enforcement attention to all areas of the country. Immigration enforcement is as likely a problem in the Midwest as it is in the Southwest. The USMS has been forced to divert resources from fugitive apprehension activities and other mission areas in order to fill the gap which has resulted from increased judicial security in the courtrooms. In some cases, the sheer number of criminal aliens has overwhelmed courthouse cellblock capacity, creating untenable working conditions for Deputy Marshals. Searching prisoners is part of prisoner processing in a courthouse cellblock
Ext #2 – Move to Other Crimes
Organized crime groups use multiple activities – a switch from one would increase another
FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, No date
[FBI, Glossary on “Organized Crime”, Federal Bureau of Investigation, no date given, http://www.fbi.gov/hq/cid/orgcrime/glossary.htm]
The FBI defines a criminal enterprise as a group of individuals with an identified hierarchy, or comparable structure, engaged in significant criminal activity. These organizations often engage in multiple criminal activities and have extensive supporting networks. The terms Organized Crime and Criminal Enterprise are similar and often used synonymously. However, various federal criminal statutes specifically define the elements of an enterprise that need to be proven in order to convict individuals or groups of individuals under those statutes.
Share with your friends: |