Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
AT: Overpopulation Impacts
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- AT: Oxygen
- AT: OZONE Depletion
AT: Overpopulation Impacts1. Overpopulation is just a media myth D'Agostino 08’ Joseph A. D'Agostino Joseph A. D'Agostino is a freelance journalist writing a book tentatively titled "Triumph of Patriarchy." He is former vice president for communications at Population Research Institute and former associate editor of Human Events. 7/27/08 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/27/taking-on-the-overpopulation-myth/ The world's population growth rate maxed out in 1965 and has been in sharp decline."The unprecedented fall in fertility rates that began in postwar Europe has, in the decades since, spread to every corner of the globe, affecting China, India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America," says Mr. Mosher. "The latest forecasts by the United Nations show the number of people in the world shrinking by midcentury, that is, before today's young adults reach retirement age." The birthrate of Europe taken as a whole, from Ireland to Russia, is only 1.5 children per woman in her lifetime, far below the minimal replacement rate of 2.1. Latin America's is down to 2.4 and dropping fast. China's is 1.7. South Korea's is a mere 1.1. The United States is the only developed country at or above replacement rate; we're right at 2.1. Mr. Mosher provides the material to counteract the overpopulation myth still dominant in the mainstream media, and peppers his straightforward text with illustrative stories from real people's lives. Ever since he became the first Western social scientist to document the forced abortions going on as part of China's Western-supported population control program 30 years ago, Mr. Mosher has been waging a campaign against the population controllers of the Earth. 2. Overpopulation has peaked Lugton & McKinney 05’ Mary Lugton, Phoebe McKinney, 2/24/05Population in Perspective: A Curriculum Resource, Amherst, MA: Population and Development Program, Hampshire College, http://www.populationinperspective.org, and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects, the 2004 Revision,” World population is still growing and is expected to reach 9 billion by the year 2050. However, demographers agree that the era of rapid growth is over. Population growth rates peaked in the 1960s due to dramatic reductions in death rates and increased life expectancy. Since then, with increasing education, urbanization, and women’s work outside the home, birth rates have fallen in almost every part of the world. The average is now 2.7 births per woman. A number of countries, especially in Europe, are now concerned about declining population growth as many women have only one child. The UN projects that world population will eventually stabilize, falling to 8.3 billion in 2175. AT: OxygenNo impact to oxygen—even if every tree in the world was burned oxygen levels would remain high NOWAK et al 2007 (David J. Nowak, Project Leader, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station 5 Moon Library; Robert Hoehn, Biological Science Technician, USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station 5 Moon Library; Daniel E. Crane, Information Technology Specialist USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station 5 Moon Library. Arboriculture & Urban Forestry, May, http://nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/jrnl/2007/nrs_2007_nowak_001.pdf) The reason the oxygen production value of urban trees is insignificant has to do with the large amount of oxygen within the atmosphere (approximately 21% of the atmosphere’s volume is oxygen). As stated by Miller (1979): “We have a large number of serious ecological problems, but suffocation from lack of oxygen is not one of them (Broecker 1970; SCEP 1970). The oxygen content of the atmosphere remains essentially constant with the oxygen consumed by all animals, bacteria, and respiration processes roughly balanced by the oxygen released by land and sea plants during photosynthesis. The present atmospheric oxygen content seems not to have changed since 1910 (SCEP 1970). Furthermore, because air is about 20 percent oxygen, the total supply is immense (Broecker 1970).” Our atmosphere has such an enormous reserve of oxygen that even if all fossil fuel reserves, all trees, and all organic matter in soils were burned, atmospheric oxygen would only drop a few percent (Broecker 1996). Also, waters of the world are the main oxygen generators of the biosphere; their algae are estimated to replace ≈90% of all oxygen used (Encyclopaedia Britannica 1994). Thus, although urban trees do produce significant amounts of oxygen, it is not a significant ecologic benefit given the global nature of oxygen and the sheer volume of oxygen in the atmosphere. AT: OZONE Depletion1. Ozone holes shrinking now CBS News, October 1, 2004, http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/national/2004/10/01/ozone_hole0401001.htmlThe ozone hole over Antarctica appears to have shrunk about 20 per cent from last year's record size, scientists said Friday. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand said its measurements show the hole peaked at about 24 million square kilometres, compared to 29 million square kilometres in 2003. Antarctic ozone hole on Sept. 17, 2001 (Courtesy: NASA) Satellite data from NASA back those measurements. "Measurements from the ground at Scott Base suggest that there is slightly more ozone this year than the average for recent years," said Dr. Stephen Wood, an atmospheric scientist with the institute, in a release. 2. No impact to ozone depletion – UV radiation levels are at an all time low S. Fred Singer, Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 1994, “The southern ocean whale sanctuary”, http://luna.pos.to/whale/jwa_v11_singer.html We need to keep in mind here that atmospheric ozone content is quite variable, both geographically and on many times scales. For example, the average intensity of UV radiation increased by 5000 percent between pole and equator; plankton drifting only 30 miles north or south would experience a five percent change. Day-to-day variations can be several hundred percent; seasonal variations several tens of percent. Even when these are averaged out, there still remains an 11-year sunspot cycle variation of ozone of the order of 3 to 5 percent, that should give rise to UV variations as large as those considered in the NMFS paper. In fact, the well-known existence of a strong correlation between sunspot number and ozone suggests that ozone content during the past two centuries (when sunspot numbers were generally low) was less than it is today - and UV fluxes should have been at least 10 to 20 percent greater than present values. Yet there is no reported evidence of ecological damage of collapse.
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