Technological platform “Medicine of the future”
Materials and technologies of the metallurgy
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21. Materials and technologies of the metallurgyProposals specified by the Technological Platform «Materials and technologies of the metallurgy» are focused on the use of the domestic sources of raw-material and unified throughout various areas of engineering. They are featured with simplicity and economic efficiency in comparison with technologies existing in our country and abroad. The offered proposals are suitable for the subsequent commercialization providing creation of economically effective and competitive hi-tech domestic production. Realization of the tasks in view allows one to create additional workplaces since it will require settlement of specialized bays and production processes for preparation and processing of initial components, semiproducts and also for manufacturing of parts and units of advanced products and structures, including so-called "unmanned" completely automated shops in various industry branches. It will provide competitiveness of domestic hi-tech production in foreign and Russian markets. It is necessary to note, that payback of investments in creation and development of hi-tech technologies for manufacturing alloys and steels with special properties, including complex protection systems and heat-resistant coatings is one of the highest. According to the evaluation of international experts, profitability of new technologies, which development is stipulated by the national Technological Platform, is with 40-60 % depending on regional salary/wages, costs of electric power and energy carriers and taxation features. The term of repayment of investments in metallurgy (considering the whole industrial complex) does not exceed 3-5 years after putting production facilities into operation. Available estimations show that in the developed countries from 50 % up to 90 % of GDP growth are caused by innovations and technological progress and innovations become an obligatory condition and the basic "motor" of development in all industry branches. According to Rosstat’ data, 72.4 mln tons of steel (an increase by 2.2 % as compared with 2006), 3.9 mln tons of aluminium (an increase by 6 %), 982.7 thousands tons of copper (a decrease by 0.3 %), 280.7 thousands tons of nickel (a decrease by 0.8 %) and 19.8 thousands tons of titanium were produced in Russia in 2007. The share of metallurgy in employment structure and in total volume of industrial output was increased 1.5 times during the last 15 years; its share in the income structure (financial result) of the industry was raised 6.5 times. The share of export of metals and metal products in Russian currency receipts was increased from 6 up to 20 percent, which is 3.4 times. Forecasts of Ministry for Economics and Development for 2020 show, that domestic demand for metal will exceed existing production volumes. Besides of the above, there is a need for labor, power and transport resources to develop processing industries. At present, the above resources are engaged in metallurgy. Disengagement of the resources and satisfaction of the demand is possible on the basis of resource saving only. As it was predicted by the Ministry for Economics and Development, the peak of resource saving will be in 2015-2020. It is supposed, that the following decrease in resource consuming will be provided: a reduction of steel consumption per one ton of rolled products - down to 1.1 ton; a decrease in consumption of concentrates of heavy nonferrous metals per one ton of finished products - down to 1.02 ton (in terms of metal); a decrease in power consumption of metallurgical conversion by 10-12 % in 2015, by 15-17 % in 2020 and in metal mining industry by 8-10 % in 2015 and by 14-17 % in 2020. An innovative manufacture of nonferrous metals will allow one to raise their production by 43-44 % in 2020 as compared to the level of 2007. The socio-economic benefits gained due to realization of the national Technological Platform «Materials and technology of the metallurgy» can be presented in an integral form as an increase in volume of innovative production of the metallurgical complex of the Russian Federation. Taking into account "the full" influence of technological modernization within 2010-2025 the above benefits will grow 2.06 times (as expressed in prices as for the year 2007). By 2025, material consumption will be decreased by 10-13 % in comparison with the basic scenario, which does not take into account the technological modernization. In 2025, the level of manufacture of hi-tech metal products will be approximately by 7-9 % higher than in the base variant. Innovative development within 2015-2025 assumes creation of a principally new technological basis of the metallurgical complex (corresponding to a new level of public needs). It will be featured with integration of processes of structural material production (multi-component products) and processes of deformation and processing of metal products and their domination in metallurgy within the framework of the united technological scheme. Predictable development of aviation- and shipbuilding, power engineering, automotive and railway transport engineering will cause an essential increase in demand for aluminium semiproducts, first of all in sector of mechanical engineering and metal working. By 2020, its share will increase up to 24 %; consumption will rise 2.8 times as compared with the level of 2007. It will be accompanied by an increase in demand for hi-tech products: large-sized aluminium plates (including those for export deliveries to large aircraft constructing foreign companies such as Boeing and Airbus) and die- and open forgings intended for such projects as regional plane Superjet 100, Ilyushin, Tupolev and others; aluminium drill pipes, including those for drilling ultra-deep wells with the purpose of further development of oil-and-gas industry, etc. The tendency of an increasing demand for aluminium rolled products for manufacture of containers and packing, and also for extruded shaped products and rolled sheets for construction industry will be kept as annual growth of demand for aluminium shapes is 10-15 %. By 2020, demand for building-purposed aluminium shapes can increase 2.5 times up to 320 000 tons (130 00 tons - in 2007). The share of construction industry in the pattern of aluminium consumption will increase up to 25-27 %. One of the major tasks of the development of the domestic market of aluminium building structures is the replacement of imported products with domestic ones. An increase of competitiveness of Russian products is connected with a drastic improvement of their quality due to the use of high-effective equipment and technologies allowing manufacture of structures of any complexity and within a wide color spectrum. Taking the innovative scenario as a base, the total domestic demand for hi-tech aluminium products (including aluminium castings) will increase ~1.9 times by 2020 rising up to 1340 000 tons (in comparison with 717 700 tons in 2007). A dominant trend on the domestic market is the growth of production of stainless steels and superalloys. The main growth in nickel consumption intended for production of stainless steel and manufacture of hi-tech production from stainless and special steels is caused by realization of the Federal Programs on development of mechanical engineering, atomic power engineering, oil- and gas production, chemical and food industries. The key task is to cover the main part of domestic demand for various kinds of products from stainless and special steels with domestic materials (now their share on the market is less than 43 %). According to preliminary estimations, consumption volume of stainless steel in Russia will be increased up to 420 000 tons by 2012, up to 615 000 tons by 2015 and up to 740 000 tons by 2020 (in comparison with 278 000 tons in 2006, where import share was 57 % ). Total demand for nickel is supposed to be at the level of 30 000 tons in 2015 and 42 000 tons by 2020 (2.2 times higher than in 2007). Aircraft construction is the largest and most actively developing market of titanium products. Its share in titanium consumption pattern is 49-52 %. More than double increase in consumption of titanium production for aircraft construction is supposed - up to 9800 tons by 2020 (it was 4200 tons in 2007). An intensive growth of demand for titanium rolled products in other branches is expected during the time period till 2020. The most intensive demand for titanium products is observed in power machine building which is closely connected with forthcoming comprehensive reconstruction of atomic power engineering. According to the plan for expansion in atomic power engineering till 2020, «Power Strategy of Russia» stipulates construction of forty nuclear heat stations in Russia and sixty stations - abroad. It is supposed to enter six new blocks at operating nuclear stations (Rostov, Leningrad, Tver’, Tomsk, Baltic) by 2015 and 26 nuclear blocks by 2020 (including those at the stations: Leningrad - 1, Tver’ - 3, Tomsk - 1, Nizhniy Novgorod - 4, South-Ural - 4, Kostroma - 4, New-Voronezh - 2, Kola - 4, Seaside - 2, Primorsk – 1). The share of atomic power engineering in the total amount of electric power generation in the Russian Federation will increase up to 20-25 % (at present it is 16 %). By 2020, demand for titanium rolled products intended for these purposes will increase up to 3 000 tons (3.5 times higher than in 2007); its share in total titanium consumption will reach 15 % (10.8 % in 2007). The shipbuilding is also one of the most developing sectors of demand for titanium products purposed for manufacturing deep-water engineering, offshore engineering structures for extraction and transportation of hydrocarbons and minerals from under ocean floor deposits. Realization of the Development Strategy of Russian shipbuilding till 2020 assumes an increase in demand for titanium products 2.7 times in comparison with the level of 2007 (from 1980 tons up to 5400 tons). The share of shipbuilding will increase from 24.8 % up to 27 % accordingly. Total demand of the domestic market for hi-tech rolling titanium products will increase up to 20 thousand tons by 2020 exceeding the level of 2007 2.5 times and will reach the value of 58 000 tons taking into account export deliveries (27 600 tons in 2007). The share of deliveries on the domestic market will increase up to 35 % (as compared with 29 % in 2007). It was predicted, that after 2011 investments into metallurgy will increase to provide high rates of innovative development with the purpose of conformity of the engineering and economic level of companies and their production to the world requirements regarding environmental safety. Average annual investments into metallurgical industry (taking into account investments into metallurgy-purposed raw materials, coke, refractory materials and processing of scarps accompanied by scrap separation for the subsequent production of ferrous and nonferrous metals) are predicted in the following volumes: 150 billion rubles in 2009 - 2011 (96 billion rubles in ferrous metallurgy and 53 billion rubles in non-ferrous metallurgy), 190 billion rubles in 2012 - 2015 (117 billion rubles and 75 billion rubles respectively) and 210 billion rubles in 2016 - 2020 (125 billion rubles and 90 billion rubles respectively). The investments will be basically formed via own funds of companies: depreciation charges, profits and dept capitals, such as credits of domestic and foreign banks, bonded loans, leasing of equipment and sales of shares. Proportion of these sources will be defined by each company (enterprise) of metallurgical industry in view of its specific conditions. Among all possible sources of investments (own and external) depreciation charges are the most favorable source in terms of its economic importance; their volume will constantly increase with the process of saturation of the industry with new fixed assets. Average annual investments into metallurgical industry formed due to own financing sources (depreciation charges and profits) reach 120 billion rubles in 2009 - 2011 year, 150 billion rubles in 2012 - 2015 and 162 billion rubles in 2016 - 2020. In this case, the investments provided via profits (the share of which prevails now) will constantly decrease: from 59 % in 2009 - 2011 down to 53 % in 2012 - 2015 and down to 49 % in 2016 – 2020. The share of investments via depreciation charges will increase respectively owing to an enactment of the Law on preferential amortization of fixed assets newly introduced into practice. By 2020, labor productivity in this branch will increase by 50-60 % in comparison with that in 2007. As for highly skilled staff, the share of working population once again engaged after retraining (now it is estimated about 60 %) will increase up to 70 % in 2015 and up to 80 % in 2020. It is supposed to create so many new workplaces as 10 000 in 2011, up to 2 0000 by 2015, and up to 40 000 by 2020. The balanced financial result caused by the innovative development of metallurgy will increase from 780 billion rubles in 2007 up to 950 billion rubles in 2020 or by 21,8 %. It is assumed, that application of the basic kinds of products (which development or upgrading is subjected to the scope of the Technological platform) in various industry branches provides direct and indirect socio-economic benefits. The main expected result of the Technological Platform «Materials and technologies of the metallurgy» is 15 - 20 % gain of the world market of manufacture and sale of components and structures from alloys and steels of new generation. 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