Terror Defense No Al Qaida Terror
Alt Causes to Russia Conflict
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- Africa Defense Status Quo Solves
- Increasing FDI ensures stability- aids telecomm, IT, and sustainable development.
- Investment and cooperation with G8 governments now solves
- Rwanda and Kenya are stable and growing
- Squo solves humanitarian crisis in Syria
- Status quo solves- Franco-American military operations
- New initiatives solve Horn of Africa
Alt Causes to Russia ConflictThere are tons of alt causes to Russia conflict – lack of trust, unstable treaties, Ukraine sovereignty.Timofeev and Nadorshin 15 [Ivan Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science, Program Director at Russian International Affairs Council, Yevgeny Nadorshin, Adviser to the Chairman of the Board/Chief Economist of MTS Bank, Moscow, “Russia and the West: The muscle flexing is leading nowhere fast,” Jun 22, 2015, http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/russia-and-west-muscle-flexing-leading-nowhere-fast]//JIH In the post-Soviet quarter-century, we have developed a fear of crises. And not without reason. But a crisis is just a transition from one state to another, ultimately leading to a smoother trajectory — or greater turmoil. Either outcome can be a means to a higher end. The final result is everything. Today the intensity of relations between Russia and the West has abated somewhat. The conflict in Ukraine is now one of arguing over positions, and outwardly the situation in Russia itself looks more stable than it did six months ago. The acute phase of the crisis seems to be over. However, the fundamental issues encircling Russia's relations with the West have not been resolved. Neither have the complexities of the country's general economic development. Slowly but surely, the antagonisms are accumulating irreversibly. And that means that new problems are simply a matter of time. A total loss of trust now characterizes Russia-West relations A qualitatively new element has appeared in relations between Russia and the West — a total loss of mutual trust. The problems of trust have been a mantra of politicians and experts over the entire post-Soviet period. Now the matter has been wrapped up conclusively. In the absence of trust, there are no problems with trust itself. The problem is finding it. Strategically, neither the West nor Russia considers each other as reliable partners. "Danger," "challenge" and "threat" are the standard buzzwords in the political lexicon on both sides. This atmosphere has permeated business projects and everyday contacts. The rift that began as political is becoming economic and even socio-economic. The new Euro-Atlantic security arrangement Along with the political relationship, the whole architecture of Euro-Atlantic security is crumbling too. It is no laughing matter and concerns everyone. What on earth is happening? It began first of all with the gradual erosion of the basic treaties on nuclear arms reduction, specifically the Intermediate and Shorter-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) and Strategic Arms Reduction (START) treaties. The matter is no longer confined to the standard political rhetoric. The INF Treaty was cited in the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, signed into law last year in the United States. START appeared in a recent amendment to the law on U.S. defense outlays, linking the financing of obligations on reducing offensive arms to Russia's respect for Ukrainian sovereignty. Nothing tragic has come of it so far — both treaties remain in force. But for the first time in three decades, an inherently local crisis is having a direct impact on the global security architecture. Even before the Ukraine crisis, Russia and the United States were divided on a host of local issues. But they were all discussed separately from the basic treaties on nuclear weapons. That informal procedure has been violated. As a result, we are sleepwalking towards the dismantlement of the system of Euro-Atlantic security laid down by the Soviet Union and the United States. One can argue long and hard about who threw the first stone. That's not what's important. In the medium term we will see a new nuclear arms race, in which regard the issues of conventional weapons, the militarization of space and the growing competition in cyberspace are interrelated. Africa DefenseStatus Quo SolvesAfricaAfrica is becoming less coup-prone and more democratic.Berman and Kirschner 13 Africa Is More Stable than You’ve Been Led to Think FEBRUARY 28, 2013 JONATHAN BERMAN is CEO of J.E. Berman Associates and a fellow of the Milken Institute, an independent economic think tank whose mission is to improve the lives and economic conditions of people around the world. Jonathan Kirschner (Stanford MBA ’12) https://hbr.org/2013/02/africa-is-more-stable-than-you♥Tina Across Africa, successful coups are rare and getting rarer. This Economist Intelligence Unit has tracked the trend since 1960, shortly after colonial withdrawal began. Given the preconceived impression of Africa as coup crazy, many lose sight of the decline of coups. While working in Kenya recently, I called a leading investor in Silicon Valley to discuss Africa’s emerging technology sector. He sent me a graphic he found in the British newspaper mapping all the secessionist movements in Africa, and what the map would look like if they all succeeded. That speculative, uninformed graphic did its readers a terrible disservice, as it would if it sounded alarms about the secessionist movements in Texas, California and New York City, all of which have threatened to leave the US. There are many drivers for why coups are playing a diminishing role in Africa. Prominent among them is that governments are getting more capable at governing. The generation that liberated Africa has been replaced by one that is better educated, more widely traveled, and with access to better technology and information. Deep governance challenges remain, but Idi Amin and his ilk are no longer running the continent. Africa’s governments aren’t just becoming more stable. They’re becoming more representative, albeit in an irregular pattern, as befits a continent with 54 countries. The Polity IV Project measures political regimes on a spectrum from fully institutionalized autocracies (low scores) to fully institutionalized democracies (high scores). As can be seen below, the trend since 1990, across all of Africa, has been towards more democracy. Increasing FDI ensures stability- aids telecomm, IT, and sustainable development.UNCTAD 15 http://unctad.org/en/pages/PressRelease.aspx?OriginalVersionID=250 Foreign direct investment inflows to Africa remained stable in 2014, un Report says 24 June 2015 United Nations Conference on Trade And Development ♥Tina East Africa saw its FDI flows increasing by 11 per cent to $6.8 billion. FDI rose in the gas sector in the United Republic of Tanzania, and Ethiopia is becoming a hub for multinational enterprises producing garments and textiles. Central Africa received $12.1 billion of FDI in 2014, up 33 per cent from 2013. FDI inflows to the Republic of the Congo almost doubled, reaching $5.5 billion so that it became the second largest recipient country in Africa (Figure 1) with foreign investors undeterred despite falling commodity prices. The Democratic Republic of the Congo continued to attract notable flows. Southern Africa received $10.8 billion of FDI in 2014, down 2.4 per cent from 2013. While South Africa remained the country that receives the most foreign investment in the region as well as on the continent ($5.7 billion, down 31 per cent from 2013), Mozambique – the recipient of the third largest amount of FDI in Africa – also played a significant role in attracting $4.9 billion. Foreign investment into Africa is increasingly being made by developing-country multinational enterprises, such as firms from China and India. Meanwhile, a number of firms from developed countries (in particular France, the United States and the United Kingdom) were large net divestors from Africa during 2014. Demand from developing-economy investors for these divested assets was significant. As a result, African mergers and acquisitions increased by 32 per cent from $3.8 billion in 2013 to $5.1 billion in 2014, especially in the finance and oil and gas sectors. Services account for the largest portion of Africa’s stock of inward FDI, although the share is lower than in other regions, and concentrated in a relatively small number of countries, including Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. Services FDI nonetheless accounted for 48 per cent of Africa’s total stock of FDI, more than twice the share of manufacturing (21 per cent) and significantly more than the primary sector (31 per cent) (Figure 2). Finance accounts for the largest portion of Africa’s stock of services FDI; by 2012 more than half of Africa’s services FDI stock was held in finance (56 per cent), followed by transport, storage and communications (21 per cent) and business activities (9 per cent). FDI into infrastructure and other services is becoming increasingly important. The stock of FDI into the transport, storage and communications industries grew more than four-fold between 2001 and 2012, from $8 billion to $34 billion. Although FDI accounts for a small portion of total infrastructure financing and development in Africa because of the wide use of non-equity modes of operation by multinational enterprises, FDI is increasingly visible in, for instance, the growing information and communications technology network as investors look to capture expanding consumer markets. FDI in services is important in supporting the participation of African economies in global value chains, as an increasing part of value added in trade consists of services. It is also important in the context of financing progress towards the sustainable development goals. Investment and cooperation with G8 governments now solvesMENA 15 (Middle East and North Africa policy paper) 2010 to 2015 government policy: peace and stability in the Middle East and North Africa Updated 8 May 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2010-to-2015-government-policy-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/2010-to-2015-government-policy-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa♥Tina The G8’s Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative is an annual dialogue, run since 2004, between the governments and civil society representatives of the G8 and the BMENA countries and territories. In 2013, the UK, as the G8 Presidency, co-chaired the BMENA initiative with the Egyptian government. Key themes In 2013, the BMENA initiative focused on three themes: Economic development; Women’s empowerment; Freedom of expression. The co-chairs delivered a series of workshops in Amman, Jordan over 8-10 December 2013, drawing together Civil Society and Governments from G8 and BMENA members to discuss these themes. The workshops brought together 60 representatives of civil society to discuss and debate issues with representatives of BMENA and G8 Governments. In recognition of the important role that young people will play in the development of new societies and in creating stability, a focus on youth ran across all three of the key themes. At the conclusion of these events, representatives of each of the working groups presented a set of recommendations to the workshops. Primary Recommendations Economic Development Asset recovery: Civil society demands the recovery of assets of illicit origin to be expedited; Encouraging entrepreneurialism: Establishing technology/business incubators that provide technical assistance and funding for students from the BMENA region to participate in training programmes between MENA and global institutions; Supporting Small and Medium Size enterprises (SMEs): supporting SMEs to deliver growth in labour-intensive sectors through tax exemptions, industrial zones and modernising legislation to encourage investment and streamline bureaucracy. Women’s Empowerment Women’s economic empowerment: A joint government–civil society national consultative committee should be established to help women across the region become economically empowered; Women’s security: A national strategy to combat violence against women should be adopted by governments in cooperation with the G8 and other international partners; Women’s political participation: Establish a mechanism to coordinate at a national level each country’s civil society and government programmes for building women’s political capacity; Freedom of Expression Education: Government educational curricula should incorporate raising awareness of human rights and foster freedom of expression; Implementing legislation: Governments should more consistently and impartially enforce existing international and national commitments to freedom of expression, specifically by integrating Articles 14 and 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and a non-discriminatory and consistent implementation of national laws by police and judiciary; Access to information: Governments should make access to information a priority and pass and/or take steps to effectively implement appropriate legislation, which must take into account international standards as defined in the Additional Protocol to the ICCP; The Forum for the Future Following the workshops the tenth annual ‘Forum for the Future’ conference took place in Cairo on 17 December, co-chaired by Foreign Office Minister Hugh Robertson and Ambassador Hamdi Sanad Loza, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. The event brought together ministers from the BMENA and G8 governments along with representatives from civil society and the private sector to reflect on the outcomes of the workshops, strengthen the BMENA initiative network and agree recommendations for further progress. Outcomes of BMENA The recommendations from the Civil Society/Government workshops will be shared with all BMENA and G8 governments and act as a point of reference for work in the area. For example, in response to a civil society call for additional support to help Arab women enter the workforce, in 2013 the UK committed £10M (matched by the Islamic Development Bank) to a new Arab Women’s Enterprise Fund. The British Government anticipates that the recommendations of BMENA 2013 will play a similar role in steering its strategy and future initiatives. Rwanda/KenyaRwanda and Kenya are stable and growingWangalwa 15 FITCH UPGRADES RWANDA TO 'B+' WITH A STABLE OUTLOOK Elayne Wangalwa; Writer and Producer for CNBCAfrica, based in Kenya; completed a degree programme at Daystar University with the unique combination of Electronic Media and Public Relations. 12 February 2015 http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2014/07/30/fitch-rwanda-upgrade/♥Tina The international credit rating agency upgraded Rwanda to ‘B+’ from the ‘B’ rating it had previously given the East African state earlier this year. “Rwanda certainly has been one of Africa’s great success stories. There are two main reasons why we took the decision to upgrade Rwanda, the first being a track record of prudent and coherent fiscal on monetary policy and the second is Rwanda really has a stellar growth record,” Carmen Altenkrich, Director Sovereign Group at Fitch told CNBC Africa. The country also saw the issue ratings on its senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds as well as its Country Ceiling upgraded to ‘B+’ from ‘B’. “Over the past five years, Rwanda has been able to grow at 6.9 per cent on average annually which really makes it a very strong growth story,” Altenkrich said. According to the latest, United Nations Human Development Report, Rwanda recorded the fastest growth in Africa between the years 2000 and 2013. Fitch anticipates Rwanda’s real GDP growth to be 6.5 per cent and to increase by 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in the medium term, in line with performance during the previous decade. According to the rating agency, the growth will benefit from stronger local integration within the East African Community and speedy gains in agriculture, mines, tourism and services. In May 2014 the East African nation was floated with 15 billion Rwandan Franc, twice the amount and issued at a yield of 12.25 per cent. In 2013, Rwanda became the first East African country to have issued a Eurobond, raising 400 million US dollars. Rwanda’s short-term foreign currency IDR was affirmed at 'B'. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings affirmed Kenya's Long-term foreign rating at 'B+', reflecting the five-year average growth rate. The international credit rating agency based in the United States and the United Kingdom bases its ratings on factors including how small an economic shift would be necessary to affect the standing of a bond issuance and what kind of debt is held by the company or country. “We have had some good and bad news. On the positive said we have seen the current account deficit which ran in double digits for the past few years coming down to 7.8 per cent of GDP. We have also seen the government take more decisive steps towards addressing the business environment and come September we are also anticipating a 20 per cent increase in the GDP,” Altenkrich said LibyaSquo solves LibyaMENA 15 (Middle East and North Africa policy paper) 2010 to 2015 government policy: peace and stability in the Middle East and North Africa Updated 8 May 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2010-to-2015-government-policy-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/2010-to-2015-government-policy-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa♥Tina The UK, together with international partners including the UN and the EU, is providing a range of assistance to the new Libyan government and civil society in support of prosperity, security and human rights. This includes promoting political participation and public voice, providing advice and training in the security, justice and defence sectors, strengthening public financial management, and promoting private sector development. In 2012/13 the UK spent approximately £9 million in Libya. In 2013/14 the UK intends to spend over £20m in support of local activity. The money is used to fund projects that, for example, promote the development of an inclusive constitution and the participation of young people, women and minorities in the political transition. In addition, as the Prime Minister announced at the 2013 G8 Summit, the UK, US and other European partners have offered to train more than 7,000 Libyan troops to help the Libyan Government disarm and integrate militias and improve the security and stability of the country. As part of this package, the UK has committed to train up to 2,000 Libyan Armed Forces personnel, in tranches, in basic infantry skills. The training will take place in Bassingbourn in Cambridgeshire. We will also provide increased training for the Libyan police and further support to improve Libya’s border security through the EU Border Mission. SyriaSquo solves humanitarian crisis in SyriaMENA 15 (Middle East and North Africa policy paper) 2010 to 2015 government policy: peace and stability in the Middle East and North Africa Updated 8 May 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2010-to-2015-government-policy-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa/2010-to-2015-government-policy-peace-and-stability-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa♥Tina We have made concerted efforts to address this iniquity on the UN Security Council and create the conditions necessary for the regime to return to the negotiating table and take part in serious discussions to bring about a political solution. In support of this objective, the UK is focusing its efforts on three key areas: Strengthening an inclusive opposition, increasing pressure on the regime politically and economically through EU sanctions and isolating Assad while working for a political resolution with international support; Managing the humanitarian, human rights and wider impact on Syria/region, pushing for a new, stronger humanitarian resolution on the UN Security Council and increasing funding for cross-border aid deliveries to a total of £76 million; and Limiting the terrorist and wider extremist threat to the UK, and chemical/biological weapon use/ proliferation. On 20 November 2012 the Foreign Secretary set out to Parliament that the UK had decided to recognise the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people as it has a democratic and pluralist vision for Syria. Since the start of the revolution, the UK has been at the forefront of providing the moderate opposition with practical and political support. This year we have provided more than £20 million in support to save lives and provide services to the Syrian population. This support includes training and equipping civil defence teams to carry out fire fighting and search and rescue; training over 300 Syrian journalists and activists helping to develop an independent Syrian media; funding local level peace-building projects within Syria and between communities in neighbouring countries where refugees are based. The government is also responding to serious human rights concerns in Syria. In partnership with other donor countries, we have funded the collection of documentary evidence of Human Rights abuses and funded Law of Armed Conflict training to help armed groups understand their responsibilities and obligations under international law and international Human Rights standards. Most recently we have started funding a multi-donor project to support the Free Syrian Police, who are responsible for providing basic civilian policing in large areas of opposition controlled territory. We have also played an important role in UN Human Rights Council discussions on the escalating human rights violations and deteriorating humanitarian situation, and in resolutions adopted by the Council on 1 and 23 March 2012 condemning these human rights violations. On 28 November 2012, the United Nations General Assembly also adopted an Arab-led resolution on the human rights situation in Syria condemning the widespread and systematic human rights violations being committed by the Syrian regime and its militia. Status quo solves- Franco-American military operationsTinti 14 The US and France Are Teaming Up to Fight A Sprawling War on Terror in Africa By Peter Tinti; Project Coordinator for the People and Ecosystems Program (PEP), supporting sustainable forest management projects in Central Africa; independent journalist covering politics, culture, human rights and security https://news.vice.com/article/the-us-and-france-are-teaming-up-to-fight-a-sprawling-war-on-terror-in-africa September 15, 2014♥Tina In July of this year, France launched Operation Barkhane, an ambitious counterterrorism initiative spread across five countries in Africa's Sahel and Sahara regions. The mission seeks to build upon the success of the French military intervention that drove al Qaeda-linked jihadi militants from northern Mali in 2013, and comes at a time when the US is expanding its own counterterrorism operations on the continent, setting the stage for what some analysts consider a burgeoning Franco-American alliance in Africa. "This is a new chapter in French-American relations," Michael Shurkin, a former CIA analyst who is now a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told VICE News. "There is an unprecedented level of cooperation going on." In an August 11 memo to US Secretary of State John Kerry and US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, President Barack Obama, citing an "unforeseen emergency," authorized the transfer of up to $10 million "to assist France in its efforts to secure Mali, Niger, and Chad from terrorists and violent extremism." The move hints at a division of labor in which the US foots the bill for a cash-strapped French military that is both logistically and politically better placed than the US to engage in combat operations in the Sahel. An even more striking example of US-French counterterror cooperation in Africa may have taken place earlier this month, when US airstrikes in Somalia killed Ahmed Godane, co-founder of the al Shabaab Islamist group. Subsequent reporting by French magazine Le Point suggests that the actionable intelligence leading to Godane's death came from the French, an indication that the two nations already have mechanisms in place for tight cooperation at a highly sensitive level. All of this comes as part of what analysts have dubbed the US military's "pivot to Africa." Although the US has engaged in counterterrorism activities in Africa since 2002, military operations have grown rapidly under the Obama administration. Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti remains the only official, permanent US base in Africa, but over the last decade, a constellation of sites, including "intermediate staging bases," and "cooperative security locations," have spread across the continent. A near-constant rotation of US military personnel, intelligence operatives, and private military contractors who engage in humanitarian missions, civil affairs activities, bilateral training exercises, and covert operations is now underway in almost every country in Africa. New initiatives solve Horn of AfricaFarhat 14 Sarah Farhat (Assistant Editor, Translation, and Research Assistant) @ World Bank Report: Supporting Regional Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa October 27, 2014 http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/report-supporting-regional-peace-and-development-in-the-horn-of-africa♥Tina The Horn of Africa Initiative A new report from the World Bank Group analyzes the critical factors contributing to regional instability and vulnerability in the Horn of Africa and proposes how countries with help from their international partners, can best address them. The report describes a new $1.8 billion initiative, which the World Bank will commit over the next 24 months, to boost economic growth and opportunity, reduce poverty, and spur business activity in the eight countries of the Horn region: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. “This new financing represents a major new opportunity for the people of the Horn of Africa to make sure they get access to clean water, nutritious food, health care, education, and jobs,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim on the first day of a joint visit with the UN and other partners to Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. “There is greater opportunity now for the Horn of Africa to break free from its cycles of drought, food insecurity, water insecurity, and conflict by building up regional security, generating a peace dividend, especially among young women and men, and spurring more cross-border cooperation.” The proposed Horn of Africa initiative builds on and complements the large country and regional programs that the WBG and other partners such as AfDB, AUC, EU, IGAD and IsDB are already supporting in the HoA. It seeks to take advantage of growing regional cooperation on security and development, progress being made in countries like Somalia, and new economic opportunities (linked, for example, to oil and mineral discoveries). On October 27th, along with the World Bank Group announcement of $1.8 billion, the European Union announced that it would support the countries in the region with a total of around $3.7 billion until 2020, of which about 10 percent would be for cross-border activities; the African Development Bank announced a pledge of $1.8 billion over the next three years for countries of the Horn of Africa region; while the Islamic Development Bank committed to deploy up to $1 billion in new financing in its four member countries in the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda). A further $2 billion could be provided by the Arab Coordination Group over the period 2015-2017. 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