The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
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- Central Receiver CSP
- Linear Fresnel Reflector CSP
- Parabolic Dish CSP
- Market Forecasts by Sector
- Figure 69: Installed CSP Electricity Generating Capacity in 2009
- Impact on Copper
- Figure 70: The Concentrating Solar Power Market
Parabolic Trough CSP: Parabolic trough-shaped mirror reflectors are used to concentrate sunlight on to thermally efficient receiver tubes placed in the trough’s focal line. The troughs are usually designed to track the sun along one axis, predominantly north–south. This is the most commercialized of the technologies counting for more than 90% of the current installations. Parabolic trough projects currently in operation are between 14 and 80 MW capacity. Existing plants are producing well over 500 MW of electrical capacity. Central Receiver CSP: This technology, also called Central Tower or Solar Tower CSP, utilises a circular array of large mirrors with sun-tracking motion concentrates sunlight on to a central receiver mounted at the top of a tower. A heat-transfer medium in this central receiver absorbs the highly concentrated radiation reflected by the heliostats and converts it into thermal energy, which is used to generate superheated steam for a turbine. This technology is commercial and attracting growing interest Linear Fresnel Reflector CSP: This is similar in concept to parabolic trough CSP but, using nearly-flat mirror reflectors, the cost is significantly lower in mirror cost and structural support. It also uses cheaper absorber components. On the downside, Fresnel technology is less efficient than Parabolic Trough. Parabolic Dish CSP: A parabolic dish-shaped reflector concentrates sunlight on to a receiver located at the focal point of the dish. This technology is modular, allowing CSP to be used in small scale electricity generation as well as the normal large plant designs. Each dish typically has 10kW capacity. Unlike other CSP technologies, Parabolic Dish CSP does not have the storage facility of the other concentrating systems. Market Forecasts by Sector To date, CSP remains a minor part of the global energy picture, with little more than 0.5 GW electricity generating capacity in 2009. Projects underway will greatly expand this installed base. In the United States, there is 1.0 GW to be installed in projects in the near term. Other projects in Spain, the Middle East (including the combined power and desalination unit in Al-Khafji, Abu Dhabi) and North Africa will greatly enhance the profile of CSP. Figure 69: Installed CSP Electricity Generating Capacity in 2009 
There are various scenarios of how CSP technologies will be developed in the future. The main challenge to be faced is cost. Innovation in systems, components as well as manufacturing technology will prove to be essential for this technology to succeed. In addition, government action can bring costs down further through preferential financing conditions and tax or investment incentives. As far as system efficiency is concerned there is still room for improvement, mainly through higher working temperatures and better receiver performances. While CSP evidently has great potential, it is still a relatively high cost technology. For the established technologies, the optimal size of plant is large, probably larger than most units currently in place. This means a considerable investment is needed for each new plant, making the technology harder to establish. Another issue is the use of water in CSP plants, as they are usually best located in areas where water resources are scarce. Technical improvements reducing cost in comparison with existing Parabolic Trough designs, the adaptation of the technology to smaller plants and the link to desalination could greatly improve the potential for CSP. Already, projects on the drawing board indicate that installed capacity is set to rise to 15 GW by 201419, thus raising the capacity in place at the end of 2009 by a factor of nearly thirty. After this, technology maturity and market deployment will most likely bring prices down, paving the way for large-scale deployment. Impact on Copper With very different views as to the rate at which CSP will take off, there must be a considerable margin for error in our forecasts. We have taken a reasonably conservative view as to the growth path for CSP, showing 6.1 GW installed capacity in comparison with KEMA’s 15 GW. We do, however, concur that this market will be in a take-off phase in the latter half of this decade, and should be recording annual growth rates similar to those achieved by solar PV ten years earlier. If this forecast turns out to be accurate, the impact on copper will be significant. The rate of copper use is expected to be fairly similar to a conventional fossil fuel power station. We therefore forecast copper use on the basis of 1 kt per 1 GW of new installation. This gives us a global market of 7.5 ktpy by 2020. Figure 70: The Concentrating Solar Power Market 
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