Sector Background
Large-scale desalination typically uses extremely large amounts of energy, as well as a specialised, expensive infrastructure. This makes desalination very costly compared to the use of fresh water from rivers, or groundwater. In recent years there are various alternative technologies/processes that can potentially reduce the energy required for removing excess salt and other minerals from the water. We review these alternatives, within their existing market context, to assess whether or not there is a “new” market in energy efficient systems for desalination.
Alternative Technical and Market Solutions
Current Technologies: The technologies currently used are distillation or membrane processes. Desalination by distillation involves the separation of pure water at boiling temperature. It includes the following types:
Multi-stage flash distillation: This is the dominant process used, accounting for around 85% of operations worldwide. The traditional process used in these operations is vacuum distillation, essentially the boiling of water at less than atmospheric pressure and thus at a much lower temperature than normal. Because the temperature is low, energy use is lower than it would otherwise be.
Multiple-effect evaporator: This uses heat from steam to evaporate water. The technology involves the boiling of water in a sequence of vessels, each held at a lower pressure than the last. This method is highly efficient, while relatively inexpensive.
Vapour compression evaporation: Evaporation method by which a blower, compressor or jet ejector is used to compress, and thus, increase the temperature of the vapour produced. It is mainly used for waste water recovery.
Evaporation/condensation: Evaporation of seawater or brackish water and consecutive condensation of the generated humid air, mostly at ambient pressure. This is a widely used technology, but inefficient.
Membrane processes use semi-permeable membranes and pressure to separate salts from water. In the last decade, membrane processes have developed very quickly. Most new desalination facilities use reverse osmosis technology. Reverse osmosis plant membrane systems typically use less energy than thermal distillation, but the process is still very energy intensive.
Desalination Combined with Heat and Power Generation: Certain types of desalination processes, especially the distillation process, can be structured to take advantage of co-generation. Most of the distillation plants installed in the Middle East and North Africa built since the 1960s combine desalination with electric power generation. These are commonly referred to as dual purpose plants.
While there are obvious advantages to co-generation, there are also disadvantages. The permanent connection of desalination with power generation means that when the demand for electricity is reduced or when the turbine or generator is down for repairs, pure water production will suffer. To be economically and technically attractive, demand for water and power from the plant must be balanced. This was the case in the Middle East and North Africa, where desalination was incorporated at an early stage in power infrastructure roll out.
The co-generation principle can be used to derive lower-cost heat rather than electric power. Steam from heat recovery systems on gas turbine exhausts, for example, can be used to drive industrial processes or community heating.
Renewable and Recovered Energy Sources in Desalination: In an attempt to overcome the energy-hungry nature of desalination, recent technologies have focussed on using renewable energy sources rather than the existing fossil fuel-based technologies. Three renewable energy sources are being development: 1) solar, 2) geothermal, 3) water temperature gradient.
Solar Desalination: Places with a shortage of potable water often have abundant sunshine. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) electricity generation technology can be used to take advantage of this fact, combining electricity generation with steam turbines with desalination, using the waste heat. Electricity created using CSP technology can be used to drive the compressors of a reverse osmosis plant, and the heat used in a traditional multi-effects desalination plant.
In April 2010 IBM and Saudi Arabia's national research group announced the opening of a solar-powered desalination plant in the city of Al-Khafji. The pilot plant will supply water to about 100,000 people and pump out about 30,000 m3 of potable drinking water per day. It will run exclusively on solar-powered electricity, and showcase two technology breakthroughs.
On the solar concentration end of the system, the plant will use ultra-high concentrator photovoltaic (UHCPV) cells. At the desalination end, IBM's nanotechnology groups newly developed nanostructure polymers are used in nanomembranes used in the reverse osmosis seawater desalination process. In addition to removing salt, the nanomembranes can also filter out toxins, including arsenic. The new nanomembranes are said to use require significantly less electricity than existing high-pressure reverse-osmosis systems.
According to the parties involved in the Al-Khafji development, the combined nanomembrane and UHCPV technology is on track to make desalination so inexpensive that it could in the future become economically feasible to produce water for agricultural purposes, not just for potable water.
Geothermal Desalination: Geothermal desalination is a proven process, still under development, for the production of fresh water using geothermal heat energy. Claimed benefits of this method of desalination are that it requires less maintenance than reverse osmosis membranes and that the primary energy input is from geothermal heat, which is a source of energy with a low environmental footprint.
Low Temperature Thermal Desalination (LTTD): This process uses the temperature gradient between two water bodies or flows to evaporate the warmer water at low pressure and condense the resultant vapour with the colder water to obtain fresh water. It is theoretically possible to use the temperature gradient between deep and shallow water in the ocean, but to date interest has mainly been the use of this technology where a coastal thermal power plant discharges huge amounts of condenser reject water into the nearby ocean
The desalination itself is achieved essentially as a distillation process in an LTTD plant. The main components are the evaporation chamber, the condenser, pumps and pipelines to draw warm and cold water, and a vacuum pump to maintain the plant at sub-atmospheric pressures.
LTTD can be implemented with a low temperature gradient of about 8°-10°C between the two water bodies used. While use of a gradient is applied in some older flash distillation units, the ability to utilise a low temperature gradient is new to the LTTD technology. The simplicity of LTTD process also enables control the quality of water produced, which may be drinking or boiler grade.
To date, LTTD has been used exclusively in India. The National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) introduced the world's first LTTD plant in the Lakshadweep islands in 2005. The plant has a 100,000 litres/day capacity. In 2007, NIOT successfully opened a second, floating LTTD plant off the coast of Chennai with a capacity of 1 million litres/day. It is currently constructing a similar plant with a capacity of 10 million litres/day.
Other Processes in Development: While not using renewable or recovered energy sources, the Passarell Process offers a new energy efficient solution as well. This is an Accelerated Distillation-Advanced Vapour Compression technology for the conversion of polluted water, seawater, or brackish bore water, into pure potable water. As well as comparatively low energy consumption, this process allows pure salt recovery (providing an additional income stream), is readily scalable, low maintenance and non-polluting.
Market Forecasts by Sector
Water may seem to be everywhere, but a rising portion of the world's population is short of potable water. The problem is getting worse as populations grow, and more urbanised. Recent statistics show that global water consumption has been twice that of population growth, and meeting this demand has become a key environmental and economic impediment facing many countries.
With an inverse proportion between the rapidly increasing population and decreasing water availability, desalination will likely continue to gain momentum. As new technologies are developed and implemented, desalination will become a viable option for more communities worldwide as a means to maintain or expand water supplies. Aging infrastructure in developed countries and the emergence of newer economies such as Latin America, Africa and Asia-Pacific should continue to boost the overall desalination market over the next several decades.
Desalination represents an effective solution for addressing multiple environmental issues, including potential fresh water shortages, global warming, desertisation and preserving the environment.
Figure 77: The Underlying Dynamics for Desalination20
According to recent statistics from the International Desalination Association, more than 13,000 desalination plants account for an installed capacity of 52 million m3/day (2008). Geographically, the Middle East is the dominant market, accounting for more than half of the installed capacity. Europe and North America are significant markets, with around 10% of installed capacity. The big potential lies with the huge populations of China and India, but as yet the installed capacity in both is quite limited.
Figure 78: Installed Desalination Capacity by Technology21
By technology, various forms of distillation process have the greater share of installed capacity. This is the dominant technology used in the Middle East, hence its relative importance. Membrane process seawater desalination, nearly all reverse osmosis process, accounted for 44% of installed capacity in 2002, and is thought to have increased to around 54% today. Its share is expected to achieve 60% share by 201522.The increase in share of reverse osmosis technology relates partly to the shift in focus of the market away from the Middle East but, even here, new plants tend to use this technology rather than distillation.
For now, the Middle East remains the largest market for desalination. Very rapid growth in other world areas, especially China and India, will decrease the relative importance of this market in coming years. Asia-Pacific in general is expected to experience the highest growth rate, aided by rapidly developing economies, urbanisation and population growth.
With environmental deterioration expected in the mature markets of Europe and North America, however, governments are likely to look for new fresh water sources. Degradation of existing water infrastructures and rapidly depleting groundwater will mean steady growth in these markets in coming years. In Europe, Spain is a hotspot, following a drought recorded in the 2004/05 water year.
Estimates of global market size vary. Looking just at the equipment supply portion of the desalination market (accounting for about 45% of the total), we estimate a market size in 2010 of US$6 billion. Forecasts of the rate of growth of this market range from 10% p.a. to 15% p.a. We take a middle growth estimate of 12% p.a.
The renewables and waste heat based technologies referred to above account for a relatively small portion of the overall market. The Abu Dhabi CSP plant, for example, accounts for only 5% of the of 52 million m3/day capacity likely to be installed in any one year. Though much larger units are planned, the largest LDDT plant is only one-thirtieth of the size of the Abu Dhabi units. As yet there are no geothermal-based units.
Figure 79: Forecast Desalination Equipment Market
Where the alternative energy sourcing is used, the desalination process itself will be based either on reverse osmosis (CSP and geothermal) or distillation (LDDT). Our forecast for the alternative technologies market is presented alongside our forecast of the total desalination market in Figure 79.
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