Figure 108: Smart Ageing, Copper Consumption per Ageing Population Addressed – Base Scenario (kg per Head)
Figure 109: Cumulative Smart Ageing Copper Installation per Total Ageing Population – Base Scenario (kg per Head)
Incremental copper use for a full smart ageing system is 16 kg per head.
The ageing population to be addressed in any one year equals the increase in size of the ageing population in that year plus 2.5% of the existing number of elderly people.
There is a wealth cut off point below which no smart ageing development will take place (assumed to be US$5,000 per head GDP).
The copper per head figure is based on an average floor space per head of 40 m² (assuming some dual occupancy) and a rate of copper use 40 kg per 100 m² above the existing standard (i.e. 70 kg minus 30 kg). The second bullet point is intended to reflect the fact that people are likely to move into smart ageing accommodation on or fairly soon after retirement, but that some others (maybe due to a life changing event such as the death of a partner) will enter the pool of likely candidates at a later stage.
We then took conservative assumptions as to the rate of penetration of smart ageing systems between now and 2020. Our resulting forecast shows the global copper market in smart ageing rising from an estimate 4.1 kt in 2010 to 42.7 kt in 2020. For Europe, the figures are 1.7 kt and 12.7 kt of copper. As can be seen from Figure 108, our Base Case forecasts show a fairly limited rate of penetration of Smart ageing technology. For 2020, for Europe we show a rate of only 2.8 kg per head of the population addressed in that year, or cumulative installation of only 0.7 kg in relation to the total ageing population (assuming no demolition of smart ageing properties). This implies a penetration rate of full smart ageing installation of only 17% in relation to the population addressed, and only 4% for the ageing population overall. The actual penetration, considering partial smart ageing systems, would be considerably higher.
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