The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper


Other Electronics Business



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Other Electronics Business

The analysis of power electronics above indicates how electronics is a fast moving business. As such, alternative technologies can alter the ground rules upon which any estimates of market prospects of materials used by the industry alter quite quickly. This is, therefore, an area where new submarkets may emerge quickly (and other ones disappear).


While we do not identify any individual new markets as such, it is worth taking a brief look at the trends that may lead to their emergence.
Interconnection between electronic components within packaged modules is one area where we are seeing quite rapid development. The requirement for denser packaging and reduced material use overall have the combined effect of creating a need for the bonding of dissimilar materials in innovative ways. Brazing and fusing of copper to other materials is one option.
Even more important is the need for superior heat dissipation, and the reduction of thermally induced stress of packaged microelectronic and optoelectronic devices. This applies at the chip, package and board levels, also to heat sinks. This requirement may provide opportunities for new copper alloys with high thermal relaxation resistance and reinforce the role of copper in heat sinks. There may be high technology opportunities for copper in phase change materials and in heat spreaders designed for directional heat transmission.
As electronic items get both smaller and more complex, designers are thinking at the nanotechnology scale. Copper already has a role here in IC interconnects, but as things get smaller copper needs to defend its position at the molecular scale, and find new applications. Copper particles in nano-particles and nano-fluids, where copper is combined with other materials, can impart the properties of copper (heat transfer, electrical conductivity) at a much smaller scale than is currently available.

      1. Energy Storage



Alternative Technical and Market Solutions
Energy storage is an important enabling technology for green market developments. Effective and affordable storage of energy allows it to be used when it is needed and in the quantity that is required. Effective battery development for the storage of electricity in cars is a key technology enabling the development of the market for electric cars.
As yet, the technology is not really in place for the full development of the BEV Battery Electric Vehicle) market. Smaller batteries used in HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) are of limited capacity and highly expensive, making this a market that still requires subsidies. Further development of the battery is required, especially a reduction in cost, is required to allow the hybrid, and especially the full BEV, market to take off. Most forecasters now assume that this will take place, pinning their hopes on the li-ion battery, now considered to be a superior and cheaper technology to the nickel metal hydride battery used in most HEVs to date (see Section 2 of this Report).
Compared to cars, much greater energy storage capacity in individual batteries would be required if it were to be relied upon to interconnect distributed generation for the electricity grid. Currently, only concentrating solar (storing energy in the form of heat) and some hydro schemes (with pumped storage) are able to store energy that can be converted to electricity. From other sources, electricity from the new sources is fed into the grid as it becomes available. Balancing of the network is achieved by altering power output from the traditional, controllable, sources of electricity.
Over time, we may expect to see energy storage to develop so that there is a more controlled interconnection of distributed generation. As well as allowing better control of the network, supply of electricity from remote sources when the supplier wants to release it offers the opportunity of maximising revenue for the seller. This may be particularly useful in improving the economics of electricity generation and the single building or community level.
Today, the greatest attention in the energy storage arena is placed on batteries. There are other technologies that have an important role, however. Ultimately, because of their greater capacity, fuel cells (storing hydrogen and releasing the energy as electricity) may prove to be the superior option for vehicles. Fuel cells may also come to have a major role in distributed generation.
Both batteries and fuel cells are adapted to store energy for long periods and release it slowly. There are other energy storage devices that provide short-duration power. These can be used to ensure the integrity of electricity infrastructure, and also to provide additional power in transport markets. The products concerned include ultra-capacitors and high speed flywheels.
Batteries: There is a huge range of technical solutions in batteries, each competing for a niche in the expanding energy storage market. For any given market, the choice will depend on the best solution taking into account the following:


  1. Power: This is the rate of energy transfer, measured in kilowatts. High power in vehicles allows rapid acceleration.

  2. Energy: This is a measure of storage capacity, normally measured in kilowatt hours. More energy means that the battery will remain charged for longer at any given rate of power output.

  3. Safety: Most batteries rely on some form of chemical reaction in order to discharge electricity, with the potential for chemical explosion or fire ever present. Short circuits, overcharging, high heat exposure, and performance in exceptional circumstances (such as a vehicle collision) all need to be taken into account when determining safety.

  4. Life: Calendar life is simply the ability of the battery to withstand degradation over time, and is generally independent of use. More importantly, cycle life measures the number of times a battery can be charged and discharged before energy and power capacity fall. For rechargeable batteries required to operate for a decade for more, this is a major issue.

  5. Cost: Achieving the correct technical solution means little if the cost is prohibitively high.

Assuming the issues of safety, life and cost can be resolved, the key metric in determining battery applicability is the relationship between power and energy rating. The positioning of various battery types is indicated in Figure 124. The high power and energy rating of li-ion batteries in relation to competing types indicates why this is being developed as the preferred battery type for automotive and other applications.


Li-Ion Batteries: Small lithium ion batteries have long been used for relatively low energy and power applications, including laptop computers. Technology development of the li-ion battery has come to make them the battery of choice for the much more demanding hybrid and electric vehicle automotive application.
Lithium batteries enjoy several advantages over the former favourite, the Nickel Metal Hydride battery. Li-ion batteries have greater cell voltage, higher energy and power densities, higher useful capacity, greater charge efficiency, lower self discharge rates and a longer operating life. In effect this
Figure 124: Li-ion Batteries and Their Competitors

means that they are able to operate over longer distances and with the same amount of charge. Li-ion batteries are also cheaper than the nickel-based alternative.


To achieve their full potential, however, much more is expected of li-ion batteries. Estimates as to how far and how quickly the technology will develop vary, but it can be assumed that over the next three years, the key performance indicators of li-ion batteries will see a 30-40% percent improvement.
The general consensus is that we will be possible to produce a battery pack for about €350/kWh by 2015, or about two-thirds of the current cost. This would make the battery cost for an electric vehicle with a 35 kWh battery around €12,000. If vehicles are developed with lower weight (requiring smaller batteries) and li-ion battery costs come down more quickly, vehicle battery costs in the €8,000 range become possible. This would bring the BEV much closer to full commercialisation.
Should li-ion batteries achieve much better performance and mass production bring down the costs substantially, new markets other than automotive could open up. In particular, li-ion batteries for electricity storage relating to distributed electricity generation become possible.
A major step forward in this direction occurred on April 29th 2010 with the release of by Saft li-ion battery technology to be used at the heart of ABB’s new SVC Light concept for the Smart Grid. SVC has long been used to ensure power quality in industry, by reacting quickly to voltage sags by the use of capacitors for example.
By including li-ion battery storage, ABB will be able to provide much greater additional power over much longer duration. As well as serving industry, the approach promises to alleviate many of the concerns related to the addition of wind power and solar energy generation to existing grids, by levelling out intermittent production and supporting demand response. The first trial installation is underway in part of the UK distribution grid, used alongside nearby wind generation. Commissioning is due later in 2010.
The Saft li-ion battery system is scalable. Currently, rated power and capacity are typically in the range of 20 MW for “tens of minutes”. However, the company states that up to 50 MW for 60 minutes and beyond is possible.
If such high energy and power scalable li-ion battery systems become proven technology, and cheap, the market potential is huge. This potential could be realised alongside distributed generation that is currently linked into the network, micro-generation systems that are not, and also to ensure power quality in industrial applications and self-contained community electricity networks.
Just how quickly this market develops will depend on cost. According to the co-founder of li-ion battery company A123 Systems, "Buying power at night and then selling it during the day - something like that will happen maybe in 30 or 40 years when storage technologies are one-tenth the costs they are today". We need to look closely at large li-ion battery price trends.
Fuel Cells: It has long been the case that fuel cells have been “about to be fully commercialised”. This technology, based on the conversion of stored hydrogen into electricity, is efficient and scalable, with the potential for very high power and energy output. Yet, the market for fuel cells remains small and there appears to be no imminent prospect of it taking off. At present, fuel cells are just too expensive.
In our automotive forecasts in Section 2 we have taken the view that, in this sector at least, fuel cells will become commercial in the latter half of this decade, creating a market for around 500,000 vehicles per year by 2020. This reflects the consensus that fuel cells will become very much cheaper, but some see full commercialisation being further off.
If fuels cells do become fully commercial, the potential is much broader than purely the automotive market. They could have an important role in electricity generation to supplement power from the electricity grid. Systems are expected to be small, with capacity at around 2 MW for electricity-only systems and up to 10 MW for combined heat and power systems. This constitutes the so-called stationary fuel cell market. Another market area for fuel cells is for use in small hand-held devices.
Three types of stationary and automotive fuel cells are recognised. These are the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs), and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). PEMFC is the most widely researched, and preferred by both the automotive industry as well as stationary power generators, as it operates at relatively low temperatures.
Other Bulk Storage Options for the Electricity Grid: As indicated above, ABB and Saft are developing the li-Ion battery as a commercial option for the so called “bulk storage” market for the electric utilities Bilk storage may be defined as storage capable of supplying electricity to the grid for more than one hour. Build storage capability will allow the electric utilities to provide additional power during periods of the day when it is needed most from stored energy. The technologies competing in this area include flow batteries and compressed air storage.
Flow batteries, where liquid chemicals move between huge storage tanks to deliver a charge, are currently being tested for use in the grid in the United States. Start-up Deeya Energy claims that it is developing a flow battery for grid backup power or to integrate wind and solar power capable of delivering up to 2 MW of electricity (although most systems are likely to be much smaller), with a release of charge for between 2 hours and 24 hours. It claims that the product will be much cheaper than Li-ion or fuel cell alternatives.
For the compressed air solution, General Compression is developing a wind turbine with an integrated air compressor. The system compresses air, which is then pumped underground into geological features like depleted gas wells or limestone caverns. Released air can then be used to generate electricity. There are currently two compressed air energy storage (CAES) plants in operation in the United States, with a few others in development.
Ultra-capacitors: An ultra-capacitor is a device able to store a large amount of charge (energy) that can be released very quickly, in a small package. It is suitable for short term, high-energy applications, such as when an appliance is switched o, when an electric car accelerates or, on a larger scale, compensating for low power quality in the industrial plant or even the electricity grid.
Ultra-capacitors offer the following benefits:


  1. They can be recharged very quickly.

  2. When fitted alongside a battery can extend battery life by up to five times by 'levelling out' high power demands on the battery.

  3. They can be manufactured in any size and shape.

  4. They can be retrofitted onto existing designs.

  5. Ultra-capacitors allow manufacturers to use smaller, lighter and cheaper batteries.

Where used in an electric utility setting, ultra-capacitors work and the opposite end of the market spectrum to the bulk storage options discussed above. Ultra-capacitors have their role in grid stabilisation, allowing power quality to be maintained in the event of a short term voltage drop or failure. This is an established market, currently dominated by banks of lead acid batteries. The need for grid support, however, is set to increase with the integration of distributed power into the system.


Much smaller ultra-capacitors will have a growing role in the automotive market. The ability to provide surge power during acceleration could extend the life of a traditional lead acid battery by up to four times. A similar role in supplementing battery power and extending battery life is also envisaged for li-ion batteries in hybrid and electric vehicles. As well as extending battery life, ultra-capacitors could be used to extend to operating range of battery powered vehicles.
Flywheels: Flywheels have been developed for storage and power quality applications. They are capable of frequent and fast charge/discharge cycles and producing high power output for short duration (1-30 seconds).
There are two basic types. Low speed flywheels (1800-3600 rpm) consist of a mass flywheel and optional power electronics for conversations between DC and AC voltages, thus replacing an inverter. High speed flywheels (>30,000 rpm) rely on magnetic bearings, vacuum chambers and a permanent magnet motor/generator to provide high efficiency operation and high energy density storage capability. The latter, therefore, is more important as an energy storage device.
Like ultra-capacitors, high speed flywheels find their strongest market niche in situations where burst of power are required for short periods. In the case of flywheels, the period is often very short, less than 15 seconds. The capability of high speed flywheels to provide immediate electric power gives then a strong role in critical uninterruptible power supply (UPS) applications, for example in data centres. They do, however, have an important potential role in electricity grid stabilisation and also in conjunction with modern road vehicle designs, to some extent competing with ultra-capacitors.



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