Guardian (UK): China considers setting targets for carbon emissions

Guardian (UK): China considers setting targets for carbon emissions

Government's decision could help negotiations on a Kyoto successor treaty in Copenhagen.

The Chinese government is for the first time considering setting targets for carbon emissions, a significant development that could help negotiations on a Kyoto successor treaty at Copenhagen later this year, the Guardian has learned.

Su Wei, a leading figure in China's climate change negotiating team, said that officials were considering introducing a national target that would limit emissions relative to economic growth in the country's next five-year plan from 2011.

"It is an option. We can very easily translate our [existing] energy reduction targets to carbon dioxide limitation" said Su. "China hasn't reached the stage where we can reduce overall emissions, but we can reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity."

A second government adviser, Hu Angang, has said China should start cutting overall emissions from 2020.

While that is a minority view and final decisions are some way off, the proposals are striking because they are at odds with China's official negotiating stance.

Beijing has hitherto rejected carbon emission caps or cuts, arguing that its priority is to improve its people's living standards – and that the west caused the global warming problem and should fix it. But developed nations argue that they cannot commit to deep cuts and to substantial funding for developing nations to fight climate change unless those countries embrace emissions targets.

Environmental groups and foreign diplomats said a carbon intensity target would be a significant step forward. Any move by China, the world's fastest expanding major economy, biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and most influential developing nation, would have an enormous impact on the outcome of the Copenhagen summit in December.

"It would be a significant step for China to set a target that directly links carbon emissions to economic growth for the first time," said Yang Ailun of Greenpeace.

"This is a green shoot of pragmatism that should be nurtured," said one European diplomat.

Hu, an influential economist and advocate of "green revolution", is pressing the government to take a leadership role in Copenhagen by making a public commitment to reduce emissions, and last week submitted the proposal to set a new carbon dioxide goal.

He is one of 37 members of an elite body that advised the premier, Wen Jiabao, to include ambitious targets of a 20% improvement in energy efficiency and 10% reduction of pollution in the 2006-2010 plan. With government figures suggesting the country is on course to approach or exceed those goals, Hu suggests they be extended for the next plan with the addition of the carbon dioxide target.

If his proposal is accepted, Hu believes China will be able to make an international pledge this year to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from 2020.

His views are several steps beyond the negotiating position of the government and officials on the national development and reform commission (NDRC) are cautious even about goals for energy efficiency. "We are very optimistic to reach the energy intensity target of 20% or so," said Su. "But personally I don't think that we can achieve the same for the next five years as the low-lying fruit is already taken."

He was still more doubtful about Hu's suggestion that China's carbon emissions could start to go down after 2020.

"We are trying to reach the emissions peak as early as possible for the earth and future generations. I cannot give you a specific year, but it's certainly not realistic to say the peak will come in 2020," he said.

But the debate on China's role in greenhouse gas reductions is widening. Last month, the Chinese Academy of Science reported that the country's carbon dioxide emissions relative to GDP should be reduced by 50% by 2020, and that total CO₂ emissions should peak between 2030 and 2040 if the country introduced more stringent energy-saving policies and received more financial support and technology from overseas.

The Brookings Institution, a US thinktank, has pinpointed domestic reductions in emission intensity in China as a possible area of compromise with the US, which has made a greater effort to reach out to Beijing on climate change issues under President Barack Obama. The softening comes amid a flurry of talks between Chinese and US leaders and officials in Washington, London and Bonn.

"The message we have got is that the current US administration takes climate change seriously, that they recognise their historical responsibility and that they have the capacity to help developing countries address climate change," said Su. But he called on the US to go further than Obama's promise to cut emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

Whether an agreement can be reached before the Copenhagen conference remains to be seen, but the debate inside China is moving into new areas. "Chinese leaders recognise China's responsibility. The question is whether or not they make a public commitment about how much they will do and by when," said Hu.

The urgency is increasing. Citing new figures from the state bureau of energy, Hu said China overtook the US last year as the world's biggest energy producer with 2.6bn tonnes of standard coal equivalent, seven years ahead of expectations. "If we can't succeed in reducing energy consumption, then no one can. I tell the government that a 1% failure in China is a 100% failure for the world," said Hu. "We must satisfy our national interest and match it with the interest of humanity."

Reuters: U.S. clears way to regulate greenhouse gases

Fri Apr 17, 3:31 pm ET

The Obama administration opened the way to regulating U.S. greenhouse gas emissions on Friday by declaring climate-warming pollution a danger to human health and welfare, in a sharp policy shift from the Bush administration.

Environmental activists and their supporters in Congress were jubilant and industry groups were wary at the news of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's move. The White House said President Barack Obama would prefer legislation over administrative action to curb greenhouse emissions.

Congress is already considering a bill to cut emissions of carbon dioxide, which is emitted by cars, coal-fired power plants and oil refineries, among other sources.

EPA's declaration was seen as a strong signal to the international community that the United States intends to seriously combat climate change.

In its announcement, the EPA said, "greenhouse gases in the atmosphere endanger the public health and welfare of current and future generations" and human activities spur global warming.

"This finding confirms that greenhouse gas pollution is a serious problem now and for future generations," said EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson. "Fortunately, it follows President Obama's call for a low carbon economy and strong leadership in Congress on clean energy and climate legislation,"

"The president has made clear his strong preference that Congress act to pass comprehensive legislation rather than address the climate challenge through administrative action," a White House official said, noting that Obama has repeatedly called for "a bill to provide for market-based solutions to reduce carbon pollution."

The EPA's endangerment finding said high atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases "are the unambiguous result of human emissions, and are very likely the cause of the observed increase in average temperatures and other climatic changes." The document is available online at www.epa.gov.

The EPA's finding is essential for the U.S. government to regulate climate-warming emissions like carbon dioxide under the Clean Air Act. Regulation is not automatically triggered by the finding -- there will be a 60-day comment period.

But as that period proceeds, legislation is moving through Congress aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions with a cap-and-trade system, which would let those companies that emit more than the limit buy credits from those that emit less.

MAJOR SHIFT FROM BUSH

EPA scientists last year offered evidence of the health hazards of greenhouse emissions, but the Bush administration took no action. It opposed across-the-board mandatory regulation of climate-warming pollution, saying this would hurt the U.S. economy.

Senator Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat who shepherded climate legislation to the Senate floor last year, called the EPA's finding "long overdue."

"We have lost eight years in this fight," Boxer said in a statement. "... The best and most flexible way to deal with this serious problem is to enact a market-based cap-and-trade system which will help us make the transition to clean energy and will bring us innovation and strong economic growth."

"At long last, EPA is officially recognizing that carbon pollution is leading to killer heat waves, stronger hurricanes, higher smog levels and many other threats to human health," said David Doniger at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

But the National Association of Manufacturers said trying to regulate greenhouse emissions with the Clean Air Act would "further burden an ailing economy while doing little or nothing to improve the environment."

"This proposal will cost jobs. It is the worst possible time to be proposing rules that will drive up the cost of energy to no valid purpose," NAM President John Engler said.

Steve Seidel of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change said the EPA announcement is an important message to the international community, which is set to meet in Copenhagen in December to craft a follow-up agreement to the carbon-capping Kyoto Protocol.

"This decision sends a strong signal to the international community that the United States is moving forward to regulate greenhouse gas emissions," Seidel said by telephone.

However, he said this move alone is no guarantee of success in Copenhagen. Participants in that meeting will also look for progress in the U.S. Congress, and for movement from other developed and developing countries.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled two years ago that the EPA has the authority to make these regulations if human health is threatened by global warming pollution, but no regulations went forward during the Bush administration.

Carbon dioxide, one of several greenhouse gases that spur global warming, is emitted by natural and industrial sources, including fossil-fueled vehicles, coal-fired power plants and oil refineries.

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